A Serious Question Re Russian Oil/Euros...

[chiburb]

There have been several threads lately in LBN and GD re Russia's apparent decision to price their oil in Euros (from the $).
I understand the basic concept of this devaluing the $, leading to inflation, etc. I see no good from this happening.
But here is what puzzles me:
Bush just met with Putin. Either Bush knew about this and said nothing to us about it, or Putin pulled a shockeroo on Bush. I doubt that Putin (The Smart Bush) would pull a stunt of this magnitude on his soulmate, so my take is that Bushco is in on this scam.
My question is WHY?
I can understand Bushco wanting to destroy the middle class in this country (the poor don't count, the rich are...well, the rich), but why would he do it before the 04's?
Is there an obvious answer that I just haven't seen yet?
On edit: WHAT IS IN IT FOR BUSHCO?

[htuttle]

1. You think Putin wouldn't put the thumbscrews to Bush?

Have you seen into his soul too?

I don't think Putin clears any of his decisions with Bush first.

[chiburb]

3. No, I don't think he would...

Not on something of this magnitude. Well, yeah he would, but not as a surprise. I think he would do it in concert with Bushco...

[sangh0]

18. You should consider Putin's position on Iraq

and then ask yourself again "Would Putin screw Bush* on something important?"

IMO, Bush*'s relationships with other foreign leaders has little to nothing to do with their nation's policies. Instead, it's based on the personal relationship between Bush* and the foriegn leader. I've read that Putin charms Bush* by agreeing with him in person, laughing at Bush*'s jokes, and telling a few of his own, so Bush* likes him. That's why Russia wasn't attacked by the Bush* admin over Iraq the way Germany and France were, even though Putin's position was almost identical to Germany's.

[ewagner]

2. Thought that too

I don't have a clue as to what the ultimate strategy might be here.

Remember Pappa Bush meeting with Putin two weeks ago?
Remember Putin meeting with Prince Bandar a week before that?

I can't believe these meetings aren't related.

Hope somebody knowledgeable can provide some perspecitive.

[Spazito]

4. I forgot about Daddy Bush's visit to Russia...

I wonder if that was to try and "persuade" Putin not to go to euros?

[critchmj]

5. The obvious answer that everyone seem tro avoid

is that Dumbya is just too stupid yo know what is going on and the rest of the admin are incompetents. Face it. This admin is THE WORST IN US HISTORY!

It's just wishful thinking on your part that there might be some other motive.

[chiburb]

6. No.

Something this big means Shrub's handlers are in on it.
Maybe I should post this in Economics, see what the wizards say, and come back here with the results?

[Minstrel Boy]

8. I think you give them too much credit.

Like all true ideologues, the neo-cons have blindspots. Their strutting arrogance presumed that the world would roll over for them. They thought the cudgel of the US military would cow nations into line. I don't believe they anticipated a fiscal cold war.

The implications are potentially disastrous, and not just for the US economy. It increases the likelihood of the administration compensating with its military might to assert American dominion.

Boom, there goes the world.

[Spazito]

9. Yes, I would be VERY interested in any responses from there!

*

[hang a left]

16. me too

[rucky]

27. BushOil Will Keep Their Profit Margins...maybe raise them

by passing the costs on to us.

They used pipeline fires in Iraq as their excuse to raise prices last time... that was a big line of BS because that just affected oil that was never in the market in the first place.

My question: HOW much will the Euro switch affect oil prices? Will it be as much as what they TELL us?

ON EDIT: I agree the Bush regime is incompetent when it comes to planning, but they are the most opportunistic mutherfuckers EVER. They've profited off of exaggerating misfortune and making the people pay in spades. This crisis will be no different.

[papau]

7. Helping US economy is behind helping oil rich as a Bush priority

The effect of Euro prices will be to isolate Russia from the coming devaluation of the dollar - so the Russian oil rich will not suffer.

Already Japan was put into a "call new elections today" mode using the positive econ growth annualized of 4% being reported news as a springboard for controlling party gains (econ growth was actually 2% after correction of Technical game playing errors - but that is another discussion) or wait a long while for calling new elections.

And Japan needs new elections so that the bank reforms that have been stalled for 10 years can finally get passed via new members of the DIET. Problem is the fact Bush has forced the yen to increase in value - making the huge capital goods equipement sales of Japan to China likely to end - meaning bad econ news is coming soon in Japan. So it was now or "never".

$40 Billion monthly trade deficit reported today - and media spins it as an improvement (which it is) rather than as a disaster. I sure do love my US media - not controlled by right wing GOP folks - they just act that way.

[IkeWarnedUs]

10. my answer to you in the other thread

When I first came across the FEASTA paper* in January, I thought maybe Bush's non-PNAC administration members (and some in Congress) were going along with the march to war because they feared economic collapse if we didn't respond to the dollar/euro switch and let it spread. I still think that may have influenced some and as the paper suggests, some of the lemmings in DC may think military dominance might is better than no dominance.

But this administration is looting our economy like some perverted Robin Hood - taking from the poor and giving to the rich. What's more, they aren't doing a damn thing to correct the trade imbalance, which seems will eventually be necessary to recover if ANY scenario plays out except that the dollar maintains its (former) dominance.

Now I think what's happening is a just a massive power/money grab. The PNAC'ers want the power - and keeping the people afraid and hungry means they (people) won't have the courage and (frankly) time to stand up to them. The worse the economy gets the more people will sign up for the military too, either out of misplaced patriotism or to feed their families. At the same time PNAC'ers and their supporters are filling their own pockets so they will be best able to weather the inevitable crash.

I'm not sure if Russia's switch is in the PNAC'ers plan. I don't put it past them, but I don't think so, in part because they have been so arrogantly bragging about their plans and I haven't seen any sign of it. I think they may see it as an inevitablity and decided to make sure they and theirs are well set as the dollar takes a dive.

One more note. It seems the corporate structure is set to weather whatever global economic war breaks out. "American" companies are so diversified and global they are reasonably immune to the realities of American economics. And I think that is being reflected in the way our hands on economy is tanking (massive unemployment, trade deficits, huge personal debt, ect.) while the stock market steadily rises.

That is my take on this (and thank you for asking) but as I said, I am certainly no expert and may not understand all the nuances of what is going on.

* Link to FEASTA paper: http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm

[chiburb]

12. I agree with everything you said...

(Again.)

But I just don't see how this benefits Bushco (including Big Oil, mulinationals, et al) by doing this before the 04's. Shouldn't the RAPE, ROUND TWO start after they're (re)elected? I'd think that Putin could wait, or he was asked to wait?
This stuff makes my head hurt, and I appreciate you taking the time to respond...

[TreasonousBastard]

19. The FEASTA paper has a couple of basic flaws in it.

Like the idea that Eurodollars are good. In fact, the return of those dollars buying US goods is what is supposed to happen in trade. Those dollars are kept out there through our foreign debt because we're not selling enough. It's just not working. And foreign central banks are getting pretty damn tired of trading dollars just to prop it up when we screw up.

Anyway, it was always my impression tht PNAC insisted on US hegemony in trade. The very concept of the Euro aggravates them because it puts another competitive currency out there. PNAC papers talk about squashing competition, and even hint about attempts to sabotage the EU since it is looming as a terrifying competitor. Our UN battles with France and Germany have one basis in them being the biggest European economies, and we want to keep them in check. Iraq is merely one battlefield. There will be more.

I can't imagine any reason why any of the PNAC crowd would want the Euro to expand in influence. It would be their worst nightmare-- expanding European influence, cementing European self-sufficiency, encouraging Japan to look to Europe rather than the US for fiscal cues, encouraging China and South America to peg their currencies to the Euro and not the dollar...

This is a very serious economic competition between them nasty "old Europeans" and us. And we are really the weaker one now. There's been an awful lot written about "Fortress Europe" over the past few years, and they realize full well that they have little to gain from bending over to us now. They are using us, not working with us, and everyone down in DC knows that.

That's why they hate them.

[IkeWarnedUs]

24. I'm not sure I understand you, TreasonousBastard

Do you mean the euro is not good in some way and if so, in what way? I don't see the FEASTA article praising the euro - it seems to me it is more explaining the euro.

I don't think PNAC is behind the Russian move or even likes the idea at all. You're right, would like to eliminate the EU and euro since they can't control them. I do see them working to destroy the US economy in other ways that benefit them and their supporters, like tax cuts, out of control military budget and corporate friendly laws. And I can see where they would prefer the US be in deep doo doo economically to help them maintain control of the masses.

You said there were a couple of basic flaws. Could you elaborate as to what they are? I am not being argumentative, I would really like to know.

Thanks.

[TreasonousBastard]

11. Why would you think Putin wouldn't do this...

on his own? When did Russia, or the old Soviet Union, ever ask us for permission for anything?

Russia is looking out for its own interests, and is preparing to be one of the world's largest oil and gas exporters. Since their largest trading partner is Europe, it simply stands to reason that they want to avoid the hassle of dollar fluctuations. Nothing but business behind this, and the slap in the face we got is just icing on the cake.

If Shrub, or anyone else, talked to him about it, it wasn't a conspiracy, just begging him to change his mind.

Chalk it up to just another failure for this administration.

[uberotto]

13. I agree...

from what I've read about it in the news articles on Google, Russia is making a political power play. They have put themselves in a position where they can easily switch to the euro if they choose. Now they are being courted heavily by both "old europe" and the u.s.

Notice how nicey, nice bush has been to putin over the last few weeks?

Apparently Russia is asking both Europe and the U.S. "what can you do for me?". They are playing one against the other. The one with the best offer, gets the prize. Putin's timing could not have been better.

[sangh0]

20. Russia wants to become a European nation

and the nations of Europe want to become a stable and powerful coalition, partially in order to counter the US's overwhelming strength. Given that context, it makes sense that Russia would move towards the Euro.

The US, on the other hand, wants to interfere with Europe's political,economic, and military unification, and our actions wrt Iraq, old vs. new Europe, our objections to Russia joining NATO, and our objections to NATO developing a rapid-reaction force are signs of this interference.

[TreasonousBastard]

21. Absolutely.

Historically, even aside from its Communist years, Russia has always been a player in Europe, although rarely directly. Peter the Great tried to join the club, but was pretty much turned down. Lenin tried to run the club, but lost.

Western Europe always suspected Russia looked eastward more than westward and never trusted them. The buffer countries, such as Poland and even Germany, were always suspect in their loyalties to those further east. Russia is huge, and it loomed over much of what Europe has done since the Holy Roman Empire.

Now, things are vastly different. Europe isn't in a state of constant war and has a chance to breathe and look at things from a more comfortable perch. Russia is best seen as an ally than an enemy from their point of view. Russia needs western capital, goods, and technology to get itself moving. Europe needs its vast natural resources. A marriage made in heaven.

The US is now the last country on earth that thinks in terms of world domination. Everyone else just wants to get down to business.

And this concept of domination will doom us, as it has doomed empires over the centuries.

[sangh0]

22. Good points. You also remind me

that as a counter to the US's overwhelming military might, a European army composed of W Europes modern equipment and funds combined with Russia's large army might be sufficient. Imagine an a military manned by Russia's millions of underemployed citizens and equipped with Europe's modern equipment. Russia gains training and experience with modern weapons and tactics, while Europe gains by not having to supply the manpower, which Europe is in short supply of due to it's declining reproduction rates.

[Quahog]

14. I think your answer is in all of these responses

I don't believe Putin is thinking too deeply about how the smirking chimp feels about this decision. He's got money in oil, he's got buddies with money in oil, it's one of the few reliable ways to accumulate wealth in Russia. So he's simply protecting his own interests. The dollar is in global decline, the prospects for US economic recovery are dismal, while the euro is shaping up quite nicely. If Putin ties Russia's oil market to the US$ and the dollar continues to tank, that's money out of his pocket. Pretty simple matter of self-interest, I think.

This is more bad news for the US economic picture, not because there's a direct impact on our economy as a result of the pricing of Russian oil, but because it's more evidence of the crumbling confidence in the US economic engine around the globe. BushCo may have assumed that Putin would have gone with the dollar out of fear or obligation, but it's clear that Putin fears monkey boy not at all, and he's not obligated to us because we have done practically nothing to help Russia with their own economic woes. Smirky was too busy looking into Putin's soul... he should have been looking into his investment portfolio.

[Spazito]

15. LOL and Great post!

*

[mumon]

17. Very simply put:

Their money ain't just in dollars.

They've got it nicely stashed offshore, in multiple currencies and gold, thank you very much.

Got it?

[chiburb]

23. Thank you, one and all...n/t

.

[ewagner]

25. Also please accept

my thanks.

Good educational discussion. I think I understand this issue better now.

[sistersofmercy]

26. Putin is elbowing for that amazing superpower position.

Deal with Saudi about oil.
Nuclear facility for Iran.
Statement for international troops in Israel to help along the roadmap.
BTW, do you know about oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian Sea?
It would seem there are enormous reserves there and well our gov along with unocal have plans for a few pipelines to go through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (formerly of USSR)have existing pipelines.
Getting the oil and natural gas disbursed via the Arabian Sea is more cost effective.
Why again did Russia invade Afghanistan?
Oh I know what you were told.

Hmmmm, still think the cold war was about nukes?
Think US gov may have had a hand in Pakistan?
I do.

[Jose Diablo]

28. Could the prize be western europe

If the USA financially implodes because of oil-euro trading turns the dollar into paper, would *Bush be able to point the blame on those 'rotten' french and germans.

Am I way off in left field here?

Could the prize be a splitting of 'spoils' of western europe with the russians? Ah la poland/finland and germany/russia?