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Remember when Papa Bush was at 92% in the polls and nearly the entire Democratic establishment threw in the towel?
You ofcourse know what happened to that seemingly invincible President.
We can win, but it will be very difficult. We need to nominate a good candidate and run an excellent campaign to start. We have some good people running who are getting more polished everyday they exist in the national spotlight. The Rove machine is not even geared up yet, so count on our nominee getting attacked relentlessly, but if we run a positive campaign which gives people a reason to vote FOR us - we can put a Democrat back in the White House.
I believe we need realism here. We can not count on scandal to sink Bush. It's just not likely to happen. People should not grasp at straws and assume every media flap will result in "Bush going down". Every White House deals with controvery, it usually doesn't doom them.
It is going to be a long, brutal campaign against an extraordinarily well funded Bush machine. If we make too many mistakes or wind up having to waste precious media time defending positions the public disagrees with our nominee on - well, we will be in trouble. Our Party and nominee needs to stress a few big ideas. There is no need to spell out all the details. The media will ask for the specifics, the public won't really be interested (though they will tell a pollster they are). The Democrats need to be positive and talk about all the great things that could be if only our nominee is elected in 04'.
Honestly, my biggest worry is the Iraq issue. I think the public supports having gone to war - I think they always have and probably always will unless events turn drastically against us (I mean hundreds of US soldiers being killed at a time ala Beirut). I don't care what the polls say at the moment, I believe peoples gut tells them that removing the bad Arab Saddam was a good idea. I think in the end, despite the overwhelming majority belief here on DU, that Iraq is a net winner for Bush. I am worried that our party is going to be suckered into becoming more and more vocal against Iraq, thus more and more percieved by the American public as the "peace" party. I do not believe someone percieved as the "peace" candidate can win anytime in the next 4 or 5 years - perhaps even longer if terrorists attack more American targets.
Polling may show Americans think the Iraq war wasn't worth it now, but at the end of the day I think after 9-11 that most US citizens will vote for the candidate that they believe will go out and beat up on the bad guys - whether we needed to or not. I firmly believe that this is the way the average American will vote, and this helps Bush. Democrats can say that the Iraq war was a misguided adventure, but I suspect even if the public comes to that conclusion - it still might not hurt Bush and might infact help him. I believe the American public might actually conclude that the fact that Bush attacked Saddam and didn't really need to is still okay because they think America needs a tough person in office during the "war on terror" who is very aggressive - even overly so. And incidentally, no candidate is going to be able to win on a platform that there really is no terrorist problem and that America isn't at war with anyone because terrorism is a law enforcement issue. That platform just won't sell after 9-11.
I think we can win, but I am worried about this Iraq issue becoming an albatross when the media inevitably changes its tune and begins reporting it as a great success. You can almost count on that happening too - especially if US troops are being being withdrawn (even in very small numbers) as 04' draws nearer.
Imajika
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