2004 Senate Races: A golden opportunity for Democrats?

[TakebackAmerica]

My Preview of the 2004 Senate

With 2004 Presidential election looming, the Medias interest in Senate elections appears to be waning. Senate is no longer tied and Republicans have a “switch proof majority.” This lack of drama will also make it harder for candidates to fundraise.

Normally Senate races are fought on local issues but in 2002 the media reminded voters daily that each seat had a chance do change the out come of the Senate. Moderate Republicans who normally would vote for a Democrat stayed loyal to Bush. Republicans expect to reap the benefits of Bush’s coattails.

The states that I predict will have the closest elections are the following, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alaska, Illinois. Three of the closest races are deep in the heart of the south. All three of these are open seats with the Democratic incumbent retiring.

Republicans will likely win at least one out these three elections. The remaining 3 Senate seats are in solid Bush states, Oklahoma and Alaska. The final seat is in Illinois where Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring. This seat is in a solidly Democratic state. This is an almost certain pick-up for Democrats.

North Carolina: On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
South Carolina: This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint My Prediction: Toss up.

Georgia: Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
My prediction: Likely GOP pick-up

Oklahoma: After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian is running to replace Nickles. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
My Prediction: Toss Up

Alaska: In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face of not only Knowles but a vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching
My Prediction: Toss up

Illinois: Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
My Prediction: Likely Democratic Pickup

[Padraig18]

1. IL = a safe *D* pickup

The Repukes are engaged in an ill-concealed civil war that will only get worse. Unless the Democratic candidate is caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy (or v/v, if the nominee is a woman, like Nancy Skinner), this one is a cherry to be picked.

[TakebackAmerica]

3. Padraig..

It seems that since the 2000 Senate elections there has been at least one easy pick up for Dms. In 2000 it was Minnesota Republican Senator Rod Grams. In 2002 it was Arkansas Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson. In 2004 it is a Gop open seat in Illinios

[Bombtrack]

4. You're definetly off on this, we don't have stronger candidates

I don't think that Skinner will, win, it'll either be Hynes, Chico, or Obama. They have the best organization and polling so far, and have, besides Hull, the most money. All of them are underdogs if Jack Ryan, who I'm sure is Rove's candidate, gets the nomination.

Alaska is a better opportunity in all likelyhood.

But I'm pretty sure that we won't have a net gain.

Cain(a black conservative) is almost certainly Rove's candidate in GA, and that is pretty much an automatic victory.

If Dean is the nominee, I think they'll probably win 5 - 8 more seats, if it's a stronger candidate, I think that at best we'll hold on to the current margin

[Padraig18]

5. I'm betting it will be Hynes

And I'll also wager that Hynes beats whatever Repuke like a red-headed stepchild.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

7. In Georgia, Congressman Mac Collins is considered to be...

the man to beat! He has the lead and the backing to add!

On Edit: Jack Ryan LOST the Governors race to Blagojovich by 8 Points! The Dem's will have to work for this seat and if they do then they win it!

[Bombtrack]

10. No, that was a different Ryan

Jack Ryan is Jeri Ryan's ex-husband, and like here character on Boston Public, he left a super-high paying financial job to teach in an ethnic inner-city school for a couple of years.

He looks like JFK jr and will have plenty of campaign money from his corporate buddies.

The only thing he has run for was for the nomination for congress in the late 90's

[NewJerseyDem]

12. Johnny Isakson might win

He is more moderate than most republicans since he is pro-choice. I think that a pro-choice republican from the south would be shocking but he will probaly do well in the Atlanta suburbs and he has the money advantage over Collins. So, I actually think Isakson is probably the favorite now even though Collins will certainly blast him for being pro-choice.

I think it is a different Ryan that is running in Illinois. They seem to have a lot of republican Ryans there.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Yes they do, A lot of very unpopular Ryans they are too!

.

[Bombtrack]

16. Trust me, it will be Herman Caine

That's who Rove wants, and if I were a RWer I would want too.

[TheReligiousLeft]

2. I'd say Alaska could be ours

My room mate from last year said people really don't like Lisa, but even the Republicans like Knowles. I wouldn't be certain, but it really could happen. We could turn Alaska Blue.

[Dagaz]

6. Don't forget Cal-EE-fornia

It depends who gets nominated to face Boxer but she is seen as vulnerable. If it's Bill Simon or Issa then no problemo but they have a few pro choice/pro business women who are well connected. Toni Casey has mega CEO support and has already lined up Charles Schwab. It leans Democratic for sure but lets not underestimate a what a well financed campaign can accomplish and $$$ is not going to be a problem.

http://www.skinnerforsenate.com/

[jiacinto]

11. Boxer will win comfortably

She should be able to win, although she will have to work for it.

[Bombtrack]

15. there's a movement to draft Issa

but otherwise it'll probably be Rosario Marin. She's the most whitehouse connected.

The GOP believes they can beat Boxer, now that there has been such a huge GOP movement created, and I don't think they're wrong.

That's why we need to nominate someone for president who other dem candidates will want to campaign with, and who can help them. Preferably Edwards, otherwise Kerry or Clark.

[The Zanti Regent]

8. Aren't you forgetting Pennsylvania?

Especially if the Magic Bullet Man (Specter) loses the GOP primary to Jesus Freak Toomey.

[Jackpine Radical]

9. Russ Feingold is on the Repug Hit List.

I'm expecting to see big bux from ou of state to come pouring into
WI in a major effort to unseat him.

[mndemocrat_29]

13. I'd put NC as a tossup

Along with OK, SC, and AK. Illinois will be a Democratic pickup (probably Hynes). I think that Carson will be able to beat the establishment candidate (who will be Sen. Ernest Istook). Inez is the best candidate we've got, so if we can't win with her, we can't win with anybody. However, I think that she'll pull this one off. Erskine Bowles will have better name recognition the second time around. Tony Knowles is doing very well at fundraising.

As for Georgia, we need a candidate (Max Cleland, Michelle Nunn, that means you!) and we need them to be a concensus candidate. That will be the most difficult seat.

However, if I were listing these seats, I'd include Florida, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania. Penn will be in play no matter what, and if either Graham or Breaux retire, those seats will be a tossup (though I think that Reps. John and Deutsch will be the frontrunners).

[rhite5]

17. BBV?

I am afraid to make any predictions. Black Box Voting will be so widespread it will affect every state.

In 2002 we lost 6-8 almost sure Dem wins for the Senate due to BBV. It ain't going to get any better. (unless we get HUGE turnouts of over 75%).

[jiacinto]

19. Please

The BBV stuff does have some merit. But I hate to break it to you. Sometimes Republicans do win close elections. As hard as it is for you to see sometimes the voters do pick Republicans.

I do think there are some concerns. But screaming "stolen election" every time a Republican wins a contest is not going to get credibility for that issue. People already think of the BBV folks as lunatics and crazies.

Screaming "fraud" all the time is like a chicken running around with its head cut off. It's also like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. The story was that the boy cried wolf all the time and the town came to save. So that when the real wolf actually showed up no one cared. That's what you are going to do with the BBV issue.

[jiacinto]

18. What I think

North Carolina: That race will be a tossup. It is very early to predict a winner there. Bowles is not a charasmatic person. This is also the "cursed" seat. Since 1974 it has switched parties every six years. So history dictates that this is the GOP's year to claim it back. But anything can happen.

South Carolina: This is a GOP leaning seat now. Tenenbaum is the most competetive Democrat running. But she still is a Democrat in what is now a heavily Republican state. This is a GOP lean, although it could become a tossup if Tenenbaum can get out the black vote.

Georgia: This one is a GOP lean right now. But we won't know how this race will go until the Democrats get a candidate. But the GOP should pick this one if the election were today.

Oklahoma: This seat has not been held by the Democrats for decades. The last Democrat to hold it lost in 1968 to Henry Bellmon. As the sunbelt turned Republican, Oklahoma was one of the first states to break away. It supported Eisenhower in 1952, then again in 1956, and then voted for Nixon overwhelmingly. Henry Bellmon was the first Republican elected Governor in 1962. He then won a Senate seat for two terms and Nickles then succeeded him.

So this seat has not had a Democrat elected to it since 1962. The Democrat who is going to run for it, Brad Carson, is going to be a good candidate. Another good candidate would Attorney General Drew Edmonson (D). However, if they have a brutal primary, it will hurt the eventual nominee.

The Republicans are probably going to run either Ernest Istook, a Congressman, or Mayor Kirk Humphries of Oklahoma City. A key factor will be if both men have a rough primary or if one drops out.

So far this is a tossup. Oklahoma did Eled Brad Henry (D) last year, but that was due to a third party conservative candidate that took crucial votes away from Steve Largent. Largent's cussing at a reporter also cost him that race.

For Carson to win he is going to have to do very well in Eastern, ruralk Oklahoma and then minimize his losses in The Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas. He is probably also going to have to do reasonably well in the SW corner of the state and in "Little Dixie".

Alaska: This seat has not elected a Democrat since 1974, when Mike Gravel last won. Murkowski starts off as the initial favorite because she is in a heavily Republican state. Also ANWR is a big issue here, which most Alaskans want, but which the national party opposes. That could hurt Knowles crucially.

But Knowles has won statewide and is popular. So this starts out as a tossup, although I still think Murkowski is the initial favorite only because of the state's partisan balance.

[Yupster]

20. Has Graham said

whether he's running or not in Florida.?

[ShaneGR]

21. You are dead wrong about Alaska

Knowles has a 20 point lead over Murchowski in that race. It's hard to get re-elected when your own father handed you the seat.

[jiacinto]

22. And

what poll is that?