The results of my polls so far...

[0rganism]

First, look only at those who would gladly support the candidate.

Clark 57%
Dean 60%
Edwards 74%
Gephardt 33%
Kerry 59%
Kucinich 77%
Lieberman 3%
Mosely-Braun 68%
Sharpton 66%

Most enthusiastic support: Kucinich, with Edwards in close 2nd
Least enthusiastic support: Lieberman by a landslide

Now, let's add those who wouldn't vote, would vote for a 3rd party, and double the number who would vote for Bush together to get a rough idea of the turn-off numbers.

Clark 23%
Dean 14%
Edwards 12%
Gephardt 21%
Kerry 22%
Kucinich 17%
Lieberman 31%
Mosely-Braun 11%
Sharpton 10%

Most negative reaction: Lieberman, with Clark and Kerry distant placers
Least negative reaction: Sharpton, Mosely-Braun, and Dean

Subtracting negative from positive,
Clark 57% - 23% = 34%
Dean 60% - 14% = 46% -- d'oh! forgot to borrow the 10
Edwards 74% - 12% = 62%
Gephardt 33% - 21% = 12%
Kerry 59% - 22% = 37%
Kucinich 77% - 17% = 60%
Lieberman 3% - 31% = -28% (whoah!)
Mosely-Braun 68% - 11% = 57%
Sharpton 66% - 10% = 56%

greatest +/- difference: Edwards and Kucinich, with MB and Sharpton close behind
least +/- difference: Lieberman, again in a landslide

It appears that Edwards and Kucinich are the biggest draws at DU today, and Lieberman would be voted off the island.

I also posted a survey regarding the likely reaction to a Green party endorsement, i.e. complete cooperation from a 3rd-party many regard as the spoiler in the previous election. Not surprisingly, most people don't care too much, and a plurality just wish I'd stop making polls. However, we're more interested in the pick-up and drop-off stats in this case.

The Democratic candidate would gain from the "more enthusiastic" and "certainly change my vote to Democratic" columns, and lose from a "second thoughts", "vote for 3rd party", or double the "vote for bush instead" numbers. At the time of my last bump,

Positive effect: 9% + 4% = 13%
Negative effect: 4% + 14% = 18%

As I suspected, a Green endorsement of the Democratic candidate results in a NET LOSS for that candidate, in terms of support at DU.

My apologies to those I've annoyed with all these polls, I hope you'll find them even more annoying in the future. ;-)

[JohnKleeb]

1. Its ok, this was interesting

whoa for DK.

[DemCam]

19. Perceptions are strange, aren't they?

I would have thought that Dean and Kucinich get the most threads posted about them...followed by Clark.

The next tier would be Kerry, Gep, Edwards...then Lieberman (mostly negative) with Sharpton next and Mosely-Braun trailing.

hmmmmm

[mot78]

2. This poll seems pretty divisive

And it doesn't seem right that Edwards would have the most die-hard group of supporters. Clark and Dean dominate DU, with Kucinich and Kerry distant 3rd and 4th.

[JohnKleeb]

3. I think it means that Edwards is the most respected

I like him too.

[JVS]

4. It is the Clark Dean warfare at work

There is no camp which is hostile to Edwards, at least not a big one.

[w4rma]

12. Yup. Clark and Dean have the spotlights shined most heatedly on them (n/t)

[chimpymustgo]

6. But most people here LIKE Edwards, and have been impressed

by his performances at all the debates.

Could Edwards be a good concensus candidate? That's what the poll is showing.

[Padraig18]

11. Edwards is my #3 choice

I'd have NO problem voting for him.

[0rganism]

22. I think Edwards has succeeded in pissing off the least people

That can make a huge difference. He's been a soft sell, he's well spoken, pleasing to the eyes and ears, not coming out as an extremist in any one way. People could feel comfortable having him over for dinner, whether they're hillbillies or haute culture. He doesn't intimidate, rarely shouts, looks like a guy who'd be equally suited to approving mortgage loans or taking bong hits. He would run a very positive campaign.

Edwards is underestimated by everyone. That could be his greatest strength.

[DUreader]

8. I don't see divisive, DU is dominated by folks who don't post much

More vote than reply, and by far the most just read stuff and neither

vote nor reply

All polls were worded close enough for me not to notice bias.

I just would like a longer time period for more votes, or multiple

short time period repititions of the poll(s) maybe.

The sample size is so small.

[0rganism]

15. "die-hard" means what, exactly?

I think it's probably true that the enthusiastic supporters of Clark and Dean generate a lot more pro/anti candidate posts than those of other candidates. However, I'm not looking at the core fanatic support as distinct from the overall enthusiastic support. From a standpoint of comfort vs. negative reaction, Clark and Dean are in the middle of the pack. Hey, it's not necessarily a bad thing.

Other things to consider when polling: DU is NOT a random population sample, and the number of poll responses (roughly 100) leaves a rather large error margin.

[Lizz612]

5. Will you

do another analysis of the results after the polls have been up longer? Say, this time tomorrow, to pick up straglers?
I like it though, I was wondering where you were going with all those. Great idea!!

[DUreader]

10. Also for that, put links in each poll to the next one, etc

chain them together so everyone can hit them all.

[0rganism]

16. Sure. And it doesn't have to be me doing it, either

Anyone can analyze the results however they like, whenever they like, as long as the polls are active.

[arcos]

7. VERY interesting exercise! n/t

[MoonRiver]

9. They're fun, and an easy way to expres our political opinions.

Plus, I think you give us valuable info. What's not to like? :D
:toast:

[Zorra]

13. At least my vote is counted!

Keep the polls going

[rhite5]

14. I like these polls too, but check your math please <G>

[0rganism]

18. thanks for the tip

I almost gave Dean a 10-point boost by accident.

[spooky3]

20. another way to look at your data

Your choices are really like a scale ranging from very positive to very negative. If you're going to recalculate for the additional votes probably coming in tonight, you could assign the following numbers to your choices, and calculate the mean (average) for each candidate.

vote for him/her gladly = 5 points
vote w trepidation = 4 points
hold my nose = 3 points
candidate who?, undecided = 2 points
vote for 3rd party, bush, no one = 1 point

Might be a little less work and the results would probably be very similar to the multiple sets of results you've presented so far.

[spooky3]

17. Great job, very interesting, and of course

I like the outcome because I like Edwards (as some of you know) but I also like others (and have contributed to other campaigns). Some of the "negative" voting for some candidates may have resulted from concern that Bush would easily beat them because of our perceptions of voters. My #1 candidate is still Anyone B. Bush.

[Skip Intro]

21. Who the hell are these DUers voting for BUSH?!

I think the Greens and Dems should have it out - may be the only way to come to some understanding about what needs to happen for the good of this country (and the world, ftm), and what may only be possible if we work together. (therefore, although I'm sure the math is good, I have to doubt that a Green endorsement of the Dem candidate would equal a net loss in votes - that just defies logic)

But I just visited the "If Dean were the nom" thread and there were, I believe, 6 VOTES FOR BUSH ! Which just leaves me saying:

:wtf: !!!!!!

[0rganism]

23. Updated poll results

Clark 131 votes
Dean 177 votes
Edwards 103 votes
Gephardt 75 votes
Kerry 95 votes
Kucinich 146 votes
Lieberman 114 votes
Mosely-Braun 90 votes
Sharpton 121 votes

Enthusiasm

Clark 53%
Dean 60%
Edwards 70%
Gephardt 31%
Kerry 56%
Kucinich 75%
Lieberman 4%
Mosely-Braun 66%
Sharpton 60%

Most enthusiastic support: Kucinich, followed by Edwards
Least enthusiastic support: Lieberman, by an order of magnitude

Turnoffs

Clark 26%
Dean 15%
Edwards 12%
Gephardt 19%
Kerry 20%
Kucinich 16%
Lieberman 33%
Mosely-Braun 9%
Sharpton 12%

Most negative reaction: Lieberman, with a comfortable margin over Clark
Least negative reaction: Mosely-Braun, making a comeback

+/- difference

Clark 27%
Dean 45%
Edwards 58%
Gephardt 12%
Kerry 33%
Kucinich 59%
Lieberman -29%
Mosely-Braun 57%
Sharpton 48%

Greatest +/- difference: Kucinich, Edwards, and Mosely-Braun, very close
Least +/- difference: Lieberman still head and shoulders below the rest

The Green endorsement poll 67 votes

increase support for a Democratic candidate 16%
decrease support for a Democratic candidate 15%

A TINY net gain from the Green endorsement at this time

[MuseRider]

24. These are very interesting

Thanks