When will the Iraqi "Tet Offensive" start?

[Homer12]

Since so much of the Iraqi forces just melted away into the desert, and there was no super big battles (Gulf War 1 had some documneted sizable engagments); It is certantly plausable that Iraqi focres, still controlled by Hussein or acting on their own are planning a mass gurella Offenisve againt Our troops.

I'm guessing that if they launch a major offensive, it will be on a signifanct day of Arab history (i.e. Arab Victory vs. Crusaders, etc....).

[bluestateguy]

1. Remember

Tet was a military victory for the US, on paper at least, but the casulties were very high.

I have no doubt that militarily the US would achieve a "military victory" in an Iraqi equivalent of the Tet Offensive. But the casulties would likely produce the same political outcome for the Administration: reduced public support for the war. And of course, conservative politcians and media whores would whine about how the media is ignoring "all the good things" in Iraq.

[Homer12]

3. True, Yet...

...if a large offensive was launched......


....The end of major combat really was/is not over. Another miscalculation/lie to add to the growing bundle.

This would make Bush look really bad, even to many of his faciltators and the Repugs in the legislature.

I don't want this to happen (an offensive that is, no matter how much I like to see egg on the neo-con's faces, it is not worth the lives of people), but it is becoming a growing possability.

[neverforget]

2. We are one mass casualty incident away from all hell breaking

loose. For example, if a transport plane is shot down with a couple dozen soldiers on board, or a truck bomb explodes in a barrack causing mass casualties, the American people will wake up and demand something change. That change may be the UN coming in or the US pulling out. Nothing like a bunch of grieving families raising hell.

I hate to say it, but it's just a matter of time until something like this happens :-(

[Classical_Liberal]

4. The day our turkish allies set foot on Kurdish soil

like Taddah!

[Minstrel Boy]

5. Every morning, I half-expect to see news of

a Beirut-like blast, or series of blasts, that kills hundreds of troops in one strike. I think that's more likely than a Tet-style offensive. I'd even say it's practically inevitable. I don't think the Iraqi resistance has the discipline or coordination of the Viet Cong. Not yet, anyway. That could change, but I think it would take another couple of years of grinding occupation, and the rise of a unifying and inspiring figure.

[scarletlib]

6. Ramadan begins 10/20/03 and lasts one month

If something big is going to happen it may be after Ramadan