Bush's higher poll ratings worry me

[Loyal]

I heard on CNN from Bill Schneider that his rating was back up to 56% now. It's certainly not from the quagmire in Iraq, but it could be from the stock market #'s, which have improved recently. What are we going to do if the economy comes back by next year? I know that Bush will still finish his first term with a net job loss, because there is no way that you can replace 3.3 million jobs in less than a year, but still. :shrug:

[KoKo]

1. What poll was he citing? He tends to do Gallup. Do you have link?

Thanks.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

2. they lie.....corporate media will say whatever rove, bush & the heritage

foundation tell them to say

[NeonLX]

3. The fact that his numbers are above 7% worries me...

...are they're really that many morans in this country?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

25. Yes.

That is very worrisome.


And, yes, there really are.

[jeter]

4. The newest poll is from Newsweek

It has Bush at 51%. One percent lower than last week. Stop believing Gallup/CNN - they lie.

[diplomats]

5. Well, if the economy does improve enough

Bush will win. Unless there's a debilitating scandal, no incumbent president loses if the economy is good. It's that simple.

[lindashaw]

10. According to Lester Thurow last week on C-Span, the GDP has...

to grow considerably more than the economy to start creating jobs -- like a couple of percentage points more. And he was quite pointed in saying that in his opinion job growth couldn't possibly come back in time for the election.

And if yesterday is any example, the terrorists haven't begun to get discouraged yet, and we lost 3 men today. Not good.

We have a major scandal cooking along, and I don't care how Bush spins it, his cabinet is in disarray. Biden says at least $50 billion more will be needed for Iraq in the short term, and the states are in dire trouble.

No polls have been taken since the bombing yesterday, right? Give it some time, and be of good courage.

[Cat M.]

33. According to CBS MarketWatch

(You have to sign up to access the article so no point in putting link).

"Unfortunately, one month does not erase all of the weakness," said Drew Matus, an economist at Lehman Brothers.

While the job gain in September is encouraging, it's not strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor force, much less reduce the long lines of Americans waiting for a job. The economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs a month to meet population growth

It will take several quarters or more of strong growth to bring down the unemployment rate.

"Employment growth is not expected to gain momentum until the second half of 2004," said Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist at Economy.com. "Historically, the labor market is creating jobs at a healthy pace once monthly employment gains reach 150,000."

[On the Road]

6. Not to Worry

A little retracement is to be expected. The administration is on its "defend our policy in Iraq" campaign and it's bound to give Bush an initial bump.

[Loyal]

8. I really doubt it's because of Iraq.

We've fucked up so much there, and the American public is not stupid. They don't trust him on Iraq. But they are seeing fatter wallets somewhat. :shrug:

[Faygo Kid]

7. Give it time

Poll numbers fluctuate. Continue to advocate, and be wary of attempts to corrupt the polling process (let alone the voting process).

[jeter]

11. Listen guys, don't worry about this

First of all, the poll has Bush at 55% (not 56%). Second, another poll by Newsweek came out after this one and had Bush at 51% www.pollingreport.com . Third, look at the poll closely. Bush's numbers on all other issues have actually dropped. On the economy, Foreign Affairs and even Iraq. His likeability and leadership numbers have dropped as well.

CNN/Gallup (same poll as above):

Approval of Bush's handling of Iraq:

App. 47%
Disapp. 50%

Foreign Affairs:

App. 49%
Disapp. 49%

Economy:

App. 42%
Disapprove 55%

There is always a 3% +/- in any poll. So this is in line with the previous poll conducted by Gallup which had Chimpy at 52%. And you know that Gallup always rounds it off to favor Bush.

Don't worry too much about this.

P.S. I find it funny that Bush doesn't break 50% on any issues that are considered to be very important and yet the same poll shows him at 55% approval overall. Very strange.

Check it out yourself:
www.gallup.com

[Loyal]

9. Here is the link, as requested:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/13/elec04.poll.bush/index.html



"A majority of registered voters say that Bush deserves to be re-elected, but only 38 percent of voters say they will definitely vote for Bush, according to the poll. With exactly the same number saying they would vote against Bush, the battle for the swing voters in the middle seems more important than ever"

[jeter]

12. I can't believe CNN

I've seen the poll, it's not 56% - it's 55%.

Is this a new poll? If so, it's the same (almost) as the one released when all other polls had Bush at 50 to 52%.

[diplomats]

17. It's a new poll

[diplomats]

16. That paragraph you cited is important

Only 38 percent of those polled will definitely vote for Bush, while the same percentage will definitely vote against him. Doesn't look like his reelect number got a boost at all. BTW, 44 percent in this poll think the economy is good, which is a very high number compared to recent polls, so that could explain Bush's jump.

[alcuno]

19. Where are these poll results? This says his re-elect is 38%

"A majority of registered voters say that Bush deserves to be re-elected.." Where are those results? That's not job approval; it's a different poll.

The recent Newsweek poll has Bush's re-elect number at 44% and the last FAUX poll had him at 39%.

[alcuno]

21. Never saw THIS poll. Definitely for * - 29% Definitely against-41%

I never saw this September 3,4 2003 poll. 29% definitely for and 41% definitely against? Wonder why it was never covered?

[West Coast Democrat]

22. I have no idea which Gallup poll this is quoting from

Since according to the Gallup website, *'s approval rating is at 55% and the poll was taken Oct 6-8.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031013.asp

[bpilgrim]

13. the trend will cheer you up though... looks steeper then a mini nuke fin

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;->

peace

[QC]

14. It's like someone on a diet weighing himself twice a day

if we get too concerned about each and every poll.

The important thing is the overall trend, which is, in this case, that Bush's popularity has been steadily dropping for two years.

[veracity]

15. It's our own fault...

While Bush is blitzing the country with his lies of success, - the Dems are hoping that the war and the economy get worse. Instead of unifying around an agenda to offer the public as an alternative... they continue to attack one another and appear to be totally lost.

Bush will take advantage of the shortcomings of the Democrats. Just as in 2000, which should have been a cakewalk for Gore, - where they catered to every GOP attack, shriveling and apologizing and not daring to attack back, this will also fail. The only thing that will get Bush out is a direct attack on all his lies, his destruction of the nation, our broken treaties, our miserable place in the world community, our destroyed environmnet, and our los liberties. But, the circular firing squad is a favorite position for Dems, who are too busy attacking the top runners. This is not an ego trip...and has to be an election focused on destroying the neocon rule. But reality has it that Dems will be Dems.

[MasonJar]

18. reason for stock market

There seems to me a sound reason that the stock market is going up. The companies have to be making bundles of money on the layoffs and the tax breaks and the off-shore accounting. This administration does not realise that it should be working for the people of this country. The masses are not getting the word. We need to work harder.

[ozone_man]

31. Bear market rally.

A continuation of the hope from 2000 high, that the bull market will continue. The PE is about 30 now and historically marks the tops of bull markets, not the bottom of bear markets. A true bull market won't begin until hope is gone. And Bush will be gone long before that.

[Snellius]

20. Check out the skewed polling sample:

"The poll was based on interviews with 1,004 adult Americans, including 870 registered voters and 456 registered Democrats, and was conducted by telephone between October 10, 2003 and October 12, 2003."

More than 13% were not registered voters. And only 45% are Democrats. This suggests not a representative sample.

Remember it's not how people say they'll vote, it's whether they vote or not and whom they actually go to the polls to vote for.

[diplomats]

23. It sounds like the only registered voters they interviewed

were Dems and Repukes. Where are the independents?

[indigo11153]

24. Polling vs. reporting

There is constant polling but selected reporting. Looking at the trend of polls is a better idea than trusting any one.

[devinsgram]

26. Don't worry, CNN doctors the numbers

or only calls repukes.

[kaitykaity]

27. kick

:kick:

[zubeneshamali]

28. I already said this on another theread, but don't worry

Bush is just enjoying a post-Arnold bounce thanks to the Caliban voters.

[Noordam]

29. They FIXED the group for that outcome.

"The poll was based on interviews with 1,004 adult Americans, including 870 registered voters and 456 registered Democrats, and was conducted by telephone between October 10, 2003 and October 12, 2003.

The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That margin is slightly higher for subset groups within the poll. "



THEY ARE LOOKING FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUGS.

If you subtract 456 Democrats from 1004 you get 548. Then div 548 by 1004 and you get 54.5%

DUH if you want Bush to have a 60% rating limit your Democrats to
401.

[Cat M.]

30. I Wouldn't Worry Too Much

The approval rating according to Gallup is 55 percent (where does this 56 come from??) up from 50 percent, but the margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

Maybe it's really 52 and maybe the previous poll, which had him at 50 percent with the same error rate was also 52?

I don't see how they can consider that a dramatic shift up when the margin of error indicates it might not be a shift at all.

Considering his approval rating went down on how he's handling the economy and down on approval of him as a person and his disapproval rate went up on his handling of foreign affairs and Iraq and the number of people who "definitely would vote for him" dropped, it doesn't make sense that his overall approval rating would take a big jump.

There's some kind of anomaly with that poll.

Maybe some republicans decided to lie and say they were democrats to make it look like Bush had more support from democrats? Who can say.


Cat M., the Anti-Apathetic

[Clete]

32. If you can jury rig elections, polls should be no problem.

:shrug:

[Loyal]

34. Haha

good point

[twilight]

35. the darkhorse commeth!!!

Would you vote for Dennis Kucinich for President?
Choice Votes Percentage of 2116 Votes
Yes. 1255 59%
No. 742 35%
I'm not sure yet. 119 6%

Link to this poll: http://www.newsnet5.com/news/2549165/detail.html



:dem: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Redneck Socialist]

37. One thing to keep in mind...

...is that national polls don't mean much. They are fun to talk about but only state polls have much relevance. If, as you suggest, "the economy comes back by next year," Bush wins. The election will hinge on two issues, the economy and Irag. If they are both going OK bush wins. If both are in the tank we win. Otherwise it is a toss up.

[Q]

38. The election will 'hinge' on only two issues...

...if the Democrats let it happen. There are many issues the Democrats could be using to kick Bush* in the ass if they choose to take a proactive stance.

[Redneck Socialist]

42. We can kick and scream all we want, but...

anyone who is not already convinced that bush is a dufus is not likely to be convinced by our hystronics. It will come down two those two issues. We need to keep hammering away but hoping for some deus ex machina to save the day is futile.

[Gloria]

39. DO NOT take the Gallup name seriously...here's why....

Once upon a time, old George Gallup started calling the presidential races and was very accurate. As he got older and didn't really run the day to day operations any longer, a couple of guys would alternate the Presidency...when I worked there, it was Andy Kohut and Leonard Wood. This was about 20 years ago!!
Andy left Gallup and has headed PEW Research for years now. (You will still seem him on PBS during the election season, doing commentary as he once did for Gallup, now for Pew.) Gallup itself was SOLD to a company from Nebrask or Kansas sometime after Andy left. There are about 3 people still in Princeton, NJ keeping up the front of the original Gallup, with the academic aura.

But the reality is, old George Gallup and Andy Kohut wouldn't be sampling like the current Gallup is sampling!! The whole point of Gallups original prestige was the accuracy of the sampling! Which is obviously not being carried on today.

So, remember that Gallup is NOT the famous Gallup of yore!! It is just another part of a big corporation. The phone banks are spread all over the nation, unlike the original Princeton based family operation...which actually did in person interviewing on a rolling basis from week to week as well as phone interviews. As a study director I was at that time able to listen to how the interviews were being done....there was a great deal of control and care back then!!

[Clete]

41. Kind of like CNN.

There was a time when reporting the news with journalistic integrity was what made CNN so respected, now.......

[Raenelle]

40. Not worried for two reasons

First, quantum mechanics analogy. His poll numbers will strip away in discrete units--not a steady flow, but a chunk here and there. The damage was done, and now he's stabilizing around the lower end of 50%. It's going to take more pounding before the die-hard dead-enders will wake up from their coma.

Second, he looks worried. They do polls too, and he is acting as if he has been wounded. Not mortally yet, but there was real damage this season.

[leesa]

43. It's the media. Why do people all of a sudden trust these whores when

it comes to polls? It's the same media we don't trust anywhere else. Expect it to get worse, these people may be facing treason charges.

[janekat]

44. Gag! Lou Dobbs orgasmic over Dumbya's higher poll numbers

He could barely contain himself. He also talked about how 50% of the Amerisheep now think that the economy is in good shape.

My only consolation is to remind myself that 50% of the dumb bastards in this country deserve to have Bush as President, deserve to see their investment portfolios and 401k's shrink massively, deserve to breathe in dirty air, deserve to have no medicare or social security by the time they turn 65, deserve to have the Patriot Act, deserve to have no free press, etc, etc.

Despite how p.o.'d I am I still am not angry enough to say that their sons and daughters deserve to be killed fighting in some meaningless war in Iraq, Syria, Iran or where-ever the war machine takes us next.

[onebigbadwulf]

45. The 9-11 JUMP

Does anyone else think that the jump in approval rating after 9-11 shows just how STUPID americans are? DUH our buildings just blew up... I approve!!! Great job BUSHY!

:wtf: