Where are all the votes?

[Mairead]

In 2000, 49% of the voting age population stayed home. About the same percentage, give or take, stays home every election.

In 1996, at the height of the Clinton 'boom years', when everyone should have been deliriously happy about how 'well' things were going, the internationally-respected National Opionion Research Center at the University of Chicago administered their General Social Survey, at the time a nearly-3000-item instrument administered to a sample size in the tens of thousands (I can't recall how many tens, but in 2002, with the instrument grown to 4200 items, it was administered to 43698 people. A very large sample, highly valid.)

One item assessed people's satisfaction with US society's socioeconomic system. The results are interesting:

07% expressed great satisfaction. To them, our socioeconomic system is the best possible one.
44% expressed mild satisfaction. To them, our system needs some changes but is okay in general.
37% expressed strong dissatisfaction. To them, our system needs major, fundamental changes
08% expressed total dissatisfaction. To them, our system should be completely scrapped and replaced.

The bottom 2 categories --those who are deeply unhappy-- total 49%

49% are deeply unhappy with the US system
49% don't bother to go and vote
The major party choices are Right and FarRight.

What does that tell us?

[Mairead]

1. Should I be surprised that this got no responses?

[RichM]

7. No, you shouldn't be surprised. This topic focuses too much on the

big picture, & is not nearly as sexy or entertaining as making snarfy accusations & put-downs about OPC (other people's candidates).

I would have voted for one of the bottom 2 choices in the NORC survey.

(BTW - was that wording - like "completely scrapped" etc - yours, or did you dig it up out of the survey itself?)

[ShimokitaJer]

2. It tells me that....

first, you weren't a math major: the two bottom categories total 45% ;)

And depending on who you are, it tells you something else.

If you're the DLC, it tells you that there's no need to embrace liberal issues, since they don't vote anyway.

If you're the GOP, it tells you that the best way to maintain the status quo is by insuring those 49% don't show up to the polls by intimidating minority voters, illegally purging voter rolls, etc.

And if you're a Democrat, it should tell you that this is not the time to embrace Washington insiders, since there is a vast untapped pool of potential voters who are clearly looking for something more.

[Mairead]

3. Yes, I'm aware of the 45% now :-)

I totaled the two top numbers, got 51%, and subtracted from 100 rather than also totalling the 2 bottom numbers. My mistake. I can't remember where the missing percentage went because I'm working from old notes. But the principle is not greatly altered by the 4% discrepancy, I don't think.

And if you're a Democrat, it should tell you that this is not the time to embrace Washington insiders, since there is a vast untapped pool of potential voters who are clearly looking for something more.

Bless you! *smooch*

[ShimokitaJer]

5. That other 4% didn't even bother to answer the question

That's about as apathetic as you can get! Maybe your totals are right after all. :)

[bryant69]

4. The problem is

you don't know what the bottom 45% want. I mean some might want

-- a liberal capitalist state with strong protections for workers and consumers.
-- socialized medicine and a real safety net for unemployed workers'
-- nationalized industry with work for all, well ordered and organized.
-- an anarchist utopia with no laws but Do as thou wilt
-- A toothless national government giving all societal power to free thinking liberty loving CEOs.
-- a nation that has turned back to God, putting power in the hands of God fearing man who enforce our morals.
-- a mighty military machine ready to enforce American dominance throughout the globe, Pax Americana

Or anything.

Oh, I like the top choice myself.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Mairead]

6. Well, actually we DO know what they want

because they said so in response to other items in the same survey, e.g.:

50% believe that our kids will have better lives than ours, but
23% believe that their lives will be worse

64% believe that the rich/poor gap has grown too large, and
50% (approximately) believe that we should enforce more equality by law.
86% believe that business should be prevented from harming the environment
66% believe international bodies should have the power to prevent, e.g., environmental harm.
68% believe that our right to privacy is seriously or very seriously threatened
66% believe that business should be compelled to give us complete and accurate product information
66% are in favor of socialised housing programs
71% are in favor of socialised medicine
83% are in favor of socialised education
90% are in favor of socialised old-age pensions
66% of lower-income working people are in favor of socialised unemployment benefits (support varies inversely with income, but younger people regardless of income support it more strongly)

[Mairead]

8. So does anyone have any evidence that there's not a lot of lib/left votes

out there for the taking? There are lots of 'centrists' around here asserting that there aren't, but the data seems to say that there are. So why aren't we planning to go after them? Is DU all about trivia?