DemocraticUnderground Poll : Dean comes in first - Clark close second!

[kentuck]

On the very popular DU discussion board, the latest poll had Howard Dean the favorite of 37% of those polled. General Wesley Clark was a close second with 30%. The most liberal candidate - and one would expect to do very well on the supposedly "very liberal" democraticunderground.com poll - Dennis Kucinich, finished third with 16% of the poll. John Kerry finished a distant fourth with 7%. John Edwards topped the lower echelon of candidates with 3% of the poll. Four percent were undecided.

It was noticeable that the top candidates were all "anti-war" and it is believed that John Kerry's vote on the war did not help him with this very knowledgeable group of activist Democrats. The poll, although taken on a so-called "left-wing" website, did not differ substantially from most major national polls, with the exception that Dennis Kucinich does much better with the DU crowd.

[TacticalPeek]

1. The litmus test.

:)

[charlie]

2. Odd

I have it on good authority that DU is GreenUnderground in all but name.

[tom_paine]

27. Apparently you are mistaken

:thumbsdown:

[charlie]

28. Joke, Tom

It's an all-too-common refrain from the contingent who can't stand anyone to their left.

[TSIAS]

3. I think this does differ from the national polls

Lieberman and Gephardt are dropping nationwide, but they still have some support. The two of them combined only got 1 percent.

[Cha]

4. Sorry, I didn't get polled!

Nor have I seen it! But I'm happy with the results!

[ramblin_dave]

6. It was at the top of the GD forum...

Everyone had a chance to participate.

[Cha]

7. Didn't see! Never go there! Darn!

But thanks for tellin' me where it was!

[ramblin_dave]

5. Can we have a run-off poll between

the top 2, since no one got more than 50%?

[rucky]

9. That would be interesting...

to see where the others would go. DU should NOT, however, formally endorse a candidate.

[RandomUser]

21. I agree

DU should endorse only one candidate -- the Democratic Nominee who emerges after the primary battles, whoever he is :)

[CMT]

8. where can we view the poll results?

and compare them with the last poll?

[ramblin_dave]

10. Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=537909&mesg_id=537909

[CMT]

14. interesting results

About 100 more people voted in this current poll. 819 as compared to he 720 in previous survey.

Dean had 47% in last survey with 341 votes. In new survey he has 37% from 304 votes, 37 fewer votes.

Kucinich, who was second in the last survey with 167 votes and 23% fell to third in the newest survey with 135 votes and 16% or 32 fewer votes.

Kerry had 97 votes in last survey and 13% of total, dropped down to 56 votes in current survey and 7% of the total. A loss of 41 votes.

Those who showed a net increase in votes from the last survey to this one were Edwards who had 23 votes compared to 17 last time net gain of six.

Shapton gained 3 votes going from 7 to 10.

Undecideds were cut in half going from 56 votes or 8% in the earlier survey to 33 votes and 4% in this current survey.

[RandomUser]

19. Actually

the more accurate answers would be to take the figures Skinner tallied at the time of thread locking for the two polls. The polls are still active and someone months later can still vote in them, thus the numbers you see now are inaccurate.

I've taken Skinner's recorded numbers and compared them side by side below in post #12.

[RandomUser]

16. Check my post lower in this thread (#12)

I've put the results recorded by Skinner at the time of locking for the two most recent official DU polls side by side, and posted net percentage support changes.

[realFedUp]

11. Dick and Joe with full support of $87 billion being sent to Iraq

could be another reason some of us won't vote
for these two.

[RandomUser]

12. Stats comparison

These are the stats as recorded by Skinner at the time of thread locking for this recent official DU poll and the last one (July), along with the net changes in percentage support as calculated by me.

July
Poll results (711)
-----------------------
336 votes, 47% Howard Dean
166 votes, 23% Dennis Kucinich
097 votes, 14% John Kerry
054 votes, 08% Don't Know/Undecided/Other
017 votes, 02% John Edwards
010 votes, 01% Bob Graham
008 votes, 01% TIE Dick Gephardt
008 votes, 01% TIE Joe Lieberman
008 votes, 01% TIE Carol Moseley Braun
007 votes, 01% Al Sharpton


October
Poll result (817 votes)
-----------------------
Howard Dean....................303 votes, 37%
Wesley Clark...................242 votes, 30%
Dennis Kucinich................135 votes, 17%
John Kerry..................... 56 votes, 7%
Don't Know, Undecided, Other... 33 votes, 4%
John Edwards................... 23 votes, 3%
Al Sharpton.................... 10 votes, 1%
Carol Moseley Braun............ 8 votes, 1%
Joe Lieberman.................. 4 votes, 0%
Dick Gephardt.................. 3 votes, 0%

Net Change
Poll Difference (+106 votes)
-----------------------
Dean: -10%
Clark: +30% (new entry, was not in previous poll :))
Kucinich: -6%
Kerry: -7%
Don't Know, Undecided, Other: -4%
Edwards: +1%
Sharpton: +/-0%
Braun: +/-0%
Lieberman: -1%
Gephardt: -1%
Graham: -1% (Dropped from race, not in new poll :()

[CMT]

17. I think this poll

shows that at least among DUers that Dean has maintained much of his strength. He lost only 34 votes in the time since the last poll. I think Clark has brought in lots of new people to DU which may be the major reason why this poll had some 100 more respondents than the last one. Kerry while he didn't poll too well in the earlier poll still lost half his support since that poll--going from 14% to 7% and 97 votes to 56.

[Cha]

18. I have to start watching for these "polls" so I

can vote, too! :kick:

[RandomUser]

20. But by that logic

at least among DUers that Dean has maintained much of his strength. He lost only 34 votes in the time since the last poll.

you would be saying the same of all the other candidates. Since many of them lost even few votes than Dean. Edwards even gained votes despite Clark's entry.

But overall, many Dean supporters have switched to Clark (like me). And the Kucinich and Kerry supporters seem to like Clark too. But your point is well taken -- Clark has indeed brought more people to DU.

[CMT]

30. Actually he has maintained much of his strength

I don't doubt that some have turned to Clark, but I really do think that Clark hasn't hurt Dean at DU or even in the nation at large as much as some people thought he would. I think his (Dean's) supporters are pretty stable overall. I honestly think that(if the national polls are any indication) that he has hurt Lieberman more than anyone.

[quinnox]

13. This poll shows how out of whack

DU is with national polls.

Gephardt gets 1% while Kucinich is third?? WTF?

[RandomUser]

15. This poll

is not representative of the nation. But it is definitely representative of DU, which is all it ever claimed to. The typical DU'er is probably more liberal than the average American. So this does seem to show some net changes in the support amongst the liberal base of the democratic party. And any attempt at reconciling official DU polls with regional polls in NH, IA, or SC, Az, or any other state would be misguided.

This is a poll of DU'ers and how their support has changed since Clark entered and Graham dropped. From that perspective, it is informative indeed.

[depakid]

22. It's not representative of DU either

because it's riddled with non-response bias.

[RandomUser]

23. Then I'd say

it's representative of a random sampling of the DU'ers who like to vote in polls. :)

[beyurslf]

25. When is the next DU poll?

I never got to vote in this one.

And will they have one that is a runoff of say the top 2 or 3 candidates?

[arwalden]

24. That's Why I Have A Hard Time Trusting The Results Of ANY Poll...

... anywhere.

They are fun... especially here... but as a true barometer of what we can expect in the real world they don't hold up too well.

Who can you trust? How can you know it's not biased? Who's doing the analysis? Who chose the participants? How were they chosen? What about the people not questioned? What about the ones who refused to participate? What about the people who lied... on purpose... because they think it's fun to fuck with pollsters? (I guess that's where the famous +/- 4% margin of error comes from.)

Sure, I like to look at them. They are interesting. But not worth my while getting worked up over. Not worth getting angry or excited over. And certainly NOT worth "un-freeping". Who cares?

-- Allen

[RandomUser]

26. Good point

They're fun, but the value is limited. They're not totally valueless, since they do give some vague picture, but the picture tends to be fuzzy.

[Nazgul35]

29. the problem with small numbers...

is that you can get drastic shifts in percentages....

you shoudl report the frequencies with such small number of votes...

[ramblin_dave]

31. After the first 100 votes or so

the percentages for each candidate hardly changed. I would seem that the results do reflect the sentiment of DU regulars.