New Quinnipiac Poll: Kerry and Clark Leading in PA Among Democrats

[DoveTurnedHawk]

Kerry 18
Clark 17
Lieberman 15
Gephardt 10
Edwards 7
Dean 5
Sharpton 4
Moseley-Braun 3
Kucinich 2
DK/NA 19

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x8502.xml

DTH

[goobergunch]

1. Here's the base report

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x8502.xml

[DoveTurnedHawk]

2. Thanks!

Added it to my post. :-)

DTH

[LynneSin]

3. PA doesn't really matter much in the primaries

It's so late in the game that usually the nominee is pretty much decided by the time Pennsylvanians go to the polls.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

4. True, But

This is one election year where the late primaries might actually matter, IMO.

DTH

[JaneQPublic]

13. Perhaps, but about 35 states have primaries before PA

...not to mention DC, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

The PA primary isn't until April 27, 2004.

If a Dem frontrunner hasn't emerged by then, we may as well kiss our Democratic asses goodbye and await the coming re-election of President Chimpy.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

15. I Could Actually Envision Clark and Dean Battling It Out to the End (eom)

DTH

[JaneQPublic]

31. It could happen.

But if so, the best thing that could result of such a proloned battle would be if the two candidates formed a ticket together.

And if not a Dean/Clark ticekt, I could get behind a Clark/Dean ticket.

Worse things could happen.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

36. I Totally Agree

I just really hope Dean doesn't go too negative on Clark, that would make a joint ticket tougher. (I don't think Clark will go negative against Dean, not first, anyway.)

DTH

[goobergunch]

38. I also concur.

This could be one of the closest races in years.

[elperromagico]

47. Bush Sr. and Reagan attacked each other in '80

I'm sure we all remember Bush's attacks on "Voodoo economics," and Reagan's infamous "I'm paying for this microphone." But still, they teamed up and won in '80.

A Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean ticket is not only balanced (regionally and ideologically), but it will energize the Democratic base and (perhaps) bring independents and disenfranchised Republicans to our side.

One can only hope

[TSIAS]

40. That's the way I see it

The earliest I see this decided is March 2 in California. I'm ready for an extended primary fight this time around.

[Kahuna]

28. PA matters in the general election. And at 5% it doesn't

appear that Dean is a shoo in to win the state and its ECs.

[goobergunch]

30. And at 17%, it doesn't look like Clark is doing much better

:eyes:

PRIMARY != GENERAL

[Kahuna]

32. 17% is a helluva lot better and more credible than 5%.

Believe THAT!

[madfloridian]

5. These university loves Santorum a whole lot.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

App Dis DK/NA
Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18

[Kahuna]

6. Question for Deaniacs. What blue state is Dean leading..

or doing well in? I think you can tell where I'm going with this question. Maybe a better way of putting this is, what candidate is doing best in the most blue states?

[goobergunch]

9. Iowa (n/t)

[Kahuna]

10. One? You think that's good? Actually, I saw a poll this week..

that he's slightly ahead of Clark in MI. I contend that that will change when the minority voters catch on to Clark. So that's two. How is he supposed to hang on to the blue states?

[ScreamingMeemie]

17. As a Michigander I can say with some confidence that Dean

has a pretty strong contingent of backers here. There are 3 meetup groups (viable, member heavy groups) here in the Detroit Metro area alone. He is also coming this weekend to speak in the Arab community. It will be interesting to see what happens here on Caucus Day.

[Kahuna]

21. There are a lot of black voters in Michigan, right?

Like I said, wait until they wake up and pay attention. I also think the Arab Americans will want a president with some national security experience, don't you?

[ScreamingMeemie]

49. Nope, not this one...There are black people at our Meetups.

Sorry, we'll have to wait and see.

** The meetups in a Metropolitan area tend to be pretty diverse.

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/groups/g_10639690//Yahoo!+Photo+Album/dean11.jpg?grqlLk_A6zwZ4_IP

[TSIAS]

11. California (n/t)

[Kahuna]

12. Sorry Bro. Clark leads CA.

Clark also leads bush in CA.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20031015-9999_1n15field.html

By John Marelius
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

October 15, 2003

FIELD POLL
Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, the newest entry into the 2004 Democratic presidential race, has shot to the top of the pack in California, according to a new Field Poll.

Only four weeks after joining the crowded race, the former NATO supreme commander has moved ahead of his competitors in California as he has in national polls.

Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said it is too soon to tell whether Clark's candidacy has staying power or has simply supplanted former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as the "flavor of the month."

One thing that does seem clear, the pollster said, is that just as California voters turned to political outsider Arnold Schwarzenegger in ousting Gov. Gray Davis in last week's recall election, there is a growing preference for a non-Washington candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[TSIAS]

14. I know Clark's taken over the lead there

You asked what blue states Dean is doing well in. I consider 2nd place to be pretty decent.

[goobergunch]

18. And it's well within the margin of error

Clark 17%
Dean 14%
Lieberman 14%

Margin of Error 4.8%

[Kahuna]

19. Well. In the CA poll, Clark leads bush and keeps him under..

50%. Spin it any way you want it. The truth is, there is nothing that suggests that Dean will be a contender against bush. Nothing.

[RandomUser]

7. PA will be extremely important in the General

It's been trending more and more republican. If we don't do something, we may lose it for years to come. As it is, I'm afraid it might even be too late to keep it from leaving the Dem column. Having a candidate who polls poorly in PA be our nominee would almost certainly seal the switching over of PA to the republican column.

[Kahuna]

8. Yep! See my question above. The Deaniacs assume..

that Dean will win every blue state and doesn't need to win any red states. Yet, Dean isn't really doing that great in the blue states so I want to know how they think he can hold on to the blue states?

[goobergunch]

16. Those are in primary polls, not general election polls (n/t)

[Kahuna]

20. I'll break it down further for you. Once again...

If Dean only gets 5% in PA, how do you expect him to win the state which was close in 2000?

[goobergunch]

22. He got 5% in the PRIMARY

He gets 41% in the GENERAL.

[Kahuna]

23. As you know from 2000, the general election is won on..

electoral college votes not the largest percentage. Is this over your head? :shrug:

[goobergunch]

26. WTF are you talking about?

You are saying that Dean gets 5% in PA. This is in the PRIMARY. I am assuming that Clark will not be a candidate in the GENERAL election...the Democratic nominee will be running in the GENERAL election, in which Dean gets 41% in PA (21 EV).

If it wasn't 9:51 at night, I'd be willing to break down every state. Since it's late, I refer you to http://www.freewebs.com/goobergunch/gpr0301.html . It's a bit dated, but it's still fairly accurate. I'll have an update tomorrow.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[goobergunch]

34. So I guess you're saying that the general election will be:

Dean vs. Clark vs. Kerry vs. Bush.

There are head to head numbers in this poll. See post #33.

[Padraig18]

24. Can we please quit using the term "Deaniac"? It's insulting. n/t

[Kahuna]

25. Really?

:eyes:

[goobergunch]

27. Really. (n/t)

[Padraig18]

39. Really. n/t

[goobergunch]

33. Also from the poll: Matchups between * and Democratic candidates

* 48% Clark 43%
* 50% Lieberman 44%
* 50% Kerry 43%
* 51% Dean 41%
* 50% Gephardt 42%

[Kahuna]

35. And who is dead last again? Yours truly.

Howard Dean. Oh yeah. That's really who we need to nominate. The candidate who consistently loses to bush by the largest margin. </sarcasm>

[DoveTurnedHawk]

41. Most of the "Matchup vs. Bush" Polls I've Seen

Have Clark doing about twice as well as Dean. It's pretty consistent.

I'm surprised this isn't a bigger deal to some folks.

DTH

[goobergunch]

42. Clark is probably a bit more electable than Dean

Personally, I think it won't make a big difference in the election...from what I've seen, most presidential re-election races are decided by fairly wide margins.

I still don't know enough about Clark to have an official position on him, but I do give him electability points.

[Julien Sorel]

46. Personal nationalism.

It's kind of scary, seeing a religious degree of worship being transferred to the world of secular politics.

[stickdog]

37. When voters start to "wake up and pay attention" is when Clark drops

off the map:

http://democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=545330

[Kahuna]

43. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

:boring:

[Skip Intro]

44. BUT - how would a Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean do next November?

Pretty damn good I'd bet.

Just an observation.

[farmbo]

45. Cute poll...Only 393 Democrats interviewed

When the new National ABC News/ Washington Post Poll, with over 1300 polled, has Dean over both Gephardt and Clark 17% to 12%.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Politics/iraq_economics031014_poll.html

[DoveTurnedHawk]

48. Actually, That's Incorrect

The entire poll was asked of only 1,000 people and the Dem primary question was asked of only the Dem/Dem-leaners of that 1,000 people, which is probably around 400 people, give or take 50.

Moreover, Clark was listed last, and apparently not rotated. That flaw is probably worth a percentage point or three.

DTH

[CMT]

50. Good for Kerry-Clark-Lieberman

but don't count out my man, Howard. Pa hasn't been big on his agenda (yet) and I can see him rallying there as in other states especially if he wins Iowa and NH and people start focusing on the race. But it is going to be a fight to the finish.