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[bif]

1. Civil War

And then Iraq becomes a Fundamentalist Islamic state.

[JNelson6563]

3. and then

folks in Saudi Arabia are emboldened to finally topple the house of Saud and an fundie Islamic state is formed there.

How does $150 a barrel for crude sound?

Julie

[blondeatlast]

4. Or Saddam Hussein is restored to power.

I don't like either scenario.

We have to stay (God, how I hate to say that), but the UN has to oversee the post-war rebuilding and government formation. The administration has got to be prevented from participating at all costs.

[Brucey]

5. I don't think so.

The vast majority of the people are too poor and there would be support only from Iran. I think Muslim nations and the UN would fill the vacuum and help set up a government. Of course, the US will NEVER EVER leave, so this is totally hypothetical. Also, the US would take over any markets anyway, selling Iraqis everything they need, including guns, butter, and oil (since we now have control of the whole Iraq economy).

[morebunk]

25. What really happened when we left Viet Nam?

Civil wars are taking place all over the world, every day.
As long as our media doesn't report on an event, it means it hasn't happened. Whatever they report is what is important. This is how the sheeple think. Ignorance is bliss. Good is evil, and evil is good.
We don't give a damn about the Iraqi people...if we did we wouldn't have supported and armed Saddam in the first place and we sure as hell would not be killing so many Iraqis now! It's all phony! Based on lies and deceit. We are all pawns in this sorry play.

[NoMoreRedInk]

2. I think 2 and 3 would happen...

at a minimum, we'd have a Kurdistan constantly at war with Turkey. And a Shiite Saddam who systematically repaid the Sunnis for Saddam's sins against them.

And nobody in the world would want to stop it because of the clusterf**k we've caused there. We're in way over our heads, and the only thing worse than staying is leaving.

[FlashHarry]

7. I agree. As the cartoon says:

[blondeatlast]

8. Well put, and welcome to DU!

I've read your posts on another topic and you seem like a real asset to the boards.

:toast:

[Beetwasher]

6. I Maintain That The Plan Is to Cut and Run

The US will stay in Iraq until they draw up a constitution, then say "Well we did our job, see ya!". This will probably happen sometime in the first half of next year, and definitely before summer. That's my prediction. Then on to Syria probably.

The country will dissolve into chaos and probably become a fundamentalist shiite state after a bloody and chaotic civil war. It will be cesspool of a breeding ground for terrorists.

[DuctapeFatwa]

9. An amended 4 and the reason why US will not

THe UN is the US, but non-US NGOs and neighboring countries would rush in immediately and avert the humanitarian disaster that the bush regime will shortly be escalating to biblical proportions by essentially banning food, a policy that has served Israel so well in Palestine.

However no US company would receive a red cent, which is why Iraq was invaded, and why it is occupied today.

Leaving now would be absolutely disastrous for the projected earnings of Halliburton, Dyncorp and da boyzz.

[sangh0]

13. Smart choice, IMO

Europe, and gthe entire world have an interest in making sure that Iraq doesn't descend into anarchy. If the US pulled out, they'd have every reason to fill in the vacuum, and very few reasons to stay away. Unfortunately (for Bush*) they have NO interest in bailing his ass out of the fire.

[Beetwasher]

15. It's an interesting conundrum

I'll give you that. If they pull out, they lose the money pit. However, you CAN look at it as a smash and grab, which is their M.O. Halliburton and the others have already made billions. They might have had designs on the oil, but they may decide it's not worth it at this point...Think of it this way, if they cut and run, they can always invade again in a few years to topple the new gov't and smash and grab again...

[kentuck]

10. Same thing that happens if we stay in...

Only quicker.

[DinahMoeHum]

11. Methinks Iraq will go the way of Iran. . .

and be governed by a primarily-Shiite Muslim majority.

Face facts: that sect of Islam is predominant in that part of the world. And the Shiites in Iraq have been on the bottom way too long. Fat chance that they will recognize any faction of a "provisional government" that has the tinge of US influence on it. These folks don't take orders from anybody other than their local ayatollah.

Whether we stay for a few more years or go soon, there's going to be very nasty and bloody power-playing out there. We'd do a lot better to get out as fast as possible. Do what the late Senator George Aiken of Vermont suggested during the Vietnam war era - declare victory and pull out.

:kick:

[FlashHarry]

12. The US' big fear is The Islamic Republic of Arabia

They won't pull out of Iraq. It's the one strategic outpost that hedges their fears of an Islamic revolution in Saudi Arabia. Why do you think we pulled our troops out of SA? We don't need them there anymore. SA is ripe for revolution: a corrupt monarchy that plays footsie with the western infidels, a large disenchanted youth inclined to fundamentalist Wahabi'ism. Watch out people.... :tinfoilhat:

[supercrash]

14. It's all very very simple...

If we allow the Iraqi's to vote in a fair election, the Shiite clerics will take power

If we leave the country today, the Shiite clerics will take power

No matter what we do , the shiite clerics will take power

[welshTerrier2]

16. The Premise of Your Question

i think we can only sit back in our armchairs and speculate on the possible outcomes ...

the greater point is, however, that a continued occupation by the U.S. is likely to do little more than postpone whatever will eventually occur ... and worse than that, the U.S. military presence is likely to incite more violence once we withdraw ...

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

17. The country of IRAQ would do better than we might think--

All these propaganda horror story scenarios about
IRAQ are there to drum up support to ensure that
our Amerikkkan oil co.'s do stay in and get to pump
that "sweet" crude out.

Just think about it reasonably.
There would be a power struggle of sorts,
just as there is in the good 'ol U.S. of A. at election time.

There would be a few "bad" things (mafia type power plays, religious power plays)
but nothing as immoral and criminal what this country's done.

Remember,we invaded a country that posed no threat at all to us or its neighbors.

Now Paul Bremer is "calling the shots" ???
That's democracy?

[MadHound]

18. It isn't a matter of what would happen,

It is a matter of what we could allow to happen. Before we pull out, say within a two to six month window, we could set up the UN, NGOs, and the neighboring Arab states to transit power to them, then on to the Iraqis. This is the moral, logical and compassionate thing to do. Yesterdays UN vote is a step in the right direction, but hopefully the US will ease itself out of power(or be eased out).

All the US presence is doing now is (justafiably) fanning the flames of resentment and strife, which delays the Iraqi healing process. While the US is in there and progress made will be slow and incremental. Its been what, eight months and there is still no reliabe electric infrastructure in large areas of the country. The people of Iraq correctly see us as invaders, and some will not cooperate with us, even though it is cutting off their nose to spite their face. Others actively work against our presence, thus the slow but steady trickle of casulties we see. If a multinational coalition led by the UN were given the reins to transition power back to the Iraqis, objectives and goals would be achieved much more rapidly, for the UN would be viewed as a savior, unlike the US. More coopreation, less opposition, less casulties.

The one thing the US would need to do though, even after we were out of there is foot the bill. Like it or not, the US created this mess, we should at least pay to clean it up. And maybe, just maybe that big a tab will piss off enough of the sheeple in this country so they rise up and vote Bush out next year.

[jmcgowanjm]

19. close approximation

http://www.mises.org/money/4s9.asp

Since the U.S. went completely off gold in
August 1971 and established the Friedmanite
fluctuating fiat system in March 1973, the
United States and the world have suffered
the most intense and most sustained bout
of peacetime inflation in the history of the world.
It should be clear by now that this is scarcely a coincidence.

http://users.mildura.net.au/users/marshall/ops/ops1971.html
Australian Government announces that the 1st
Australian Task Force will be withdrawn by late
December , with logistics units shortly after. New
Zealand also announce their withdrawal. HMAS
Brisbane is not to be replaced. Some training
and advisory elements would remain.

[jmcgowanjm]

21. turn out the lights

http://25thaviation.org/id771.htm#last_saigon_embasy_message

[bearfan454]

20. We would Save billions of dollars !

Not to mention no oil stealing or contracts for halliburton. Less deficits, hell they don't want that. They want us over ther getting every penny we can. Let's face it folks it is PROFITS OVER PEOPLE no matter what the cost. These crooks HAVE GOT TO GO !

[poskonig]

22. #3, followed by #1.

A lack of national political infrastructure for Iraq implies regionalism will prevail. The behavior of other powers in the region also has importance. Consequently, Iran would be pulling the strings in the hypothetical shi'ite state while. In addition, Turkey would be greatly interested in ruining a hypothetical Kurdish state harboring what they consider to be terrorists on their southern border.

[Kitsune]

23. Turkey would probably intervene

Especially in the case of #3, because the idea of an independent Kurdistan scares the bejeezus out of them.

If the Shi'ites took over, they'd have a lot of the same problems we're currently having, because there'd be a sizable Sunni minority (about 30% IIRC) that would not be particularly happy.

[9215]

24. Let's go through the process

The US pulls out the troops and Halliburton, Bectel, and the rest of the war profiteers have to rely on Dyncorp to protect them from the fury of Islam.

We know what the outcome of that matchup would be.

But then the US would be faced with a big threat to its oil supply. We then turn this crisis into an opportunity to develop alternatives to oil. We declare the energy crisis a threat to national security and declare war on it. Pull out all the stops and start a massive campaign to develop sustainable, environmentally stable alternatives to oil. Have an environmental version of the Patriot Act to fight the oil empire terrorists who seek to undermine this effort as they inevitably will. The BFEE would become the Al Qaeda of the alternative energy movement and dealt with accordingly: smoke em' out of their holes and set up a prison camp at GTMO then give GTMO back to Castro and
BINGO!

The BFEE and their Cuban Mafia dissappear