Latest NH poll: Dean opens 17-point lead (also results from Iowa, SC)

[CMT]

A survey finds electorate in key prmary stattes is divided on tax cuts, Iraq war, and to challenging president's agenda. A new survey of Democratic voters in three states with key early contests finds the party united in hostility toward President Bush but divided on how agressively its eventual nominee should challenge his policies on taxes and Iraq.

The surveys were conducted by a Democratic advocacy group called Democracy Corps founded by Robert Shrum, James Carville and Stan Greenberg.

Greenberg supervised the survey. Here are the results:

New Hampshire:
Dean: 38%
Kerry: 21%
Clark: 11%
Gephardt: 8%
Edwards: 6%
Lieberman: 6%

A tight race is developing between Gep and Dean in Iowa:
Gep: 27%
Dean: 26%
Kerry: 16%
Edwards 8%
Clark: 6%

A tight six-man race in South Carolina:
Edwards: 14%
Gep: 13%
Clark: 12%
Lieberman: 11%
Dean: 10%
Sharpton: 10%

link in ABC news: TheNOTE
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

found under section labeled: ABCnews vote 2004:Invisible Primary.

The polls were taken from Oct 2-13 of 536 likely primary Dem voters in NH, 488 in SC, and 489 likely attendees of Iowa caucuses. plus or minus 4.4.

[Vis Numar]

1. WOW!!

Dean breaking away in NH!!

[Brucey]

2. I think we will find Dean plays well in the north but not in the south.

The big question: will this matter in the presidential election?

[gully]

3. That's typical for the Dems, however I think we may be surprised by Dean

We have been thus far.

[LuminousX]

6. Only 4 points behind in SC

And SC is a harshly conservative state. I'm more interested in Mississippi and Missouri to be honest. Tennessee, Arkansas, and West Virginia are also more interesting bellweather states than South Carolina.

[CMT]

7. well right now he is in the thick of things in SC

according to this poll, has 10% only 4-points away from front-placer Edwards from neigboring NC.

[On the Road]

21. The Question Is:

How will Dean play in the swing states? In MI, IL, PA, OH, WV, NM, and many others -- but especially FL.

[CMT]

33. the ? is how will all of the candidates do in those states

I don't know why it is limited to Dean. Dean leads in Michigan according to a poll released last weekend. He has a good campaign orgnaization in New Mexico and a recent rally there attracted several thousands. He has one of the better organizations on the ground in Illinois.

New Hampshire is also a swing state which we narrowly lost and a University of NH poll released a few days ago showed Dean doing better than Kerry or Clark vs. Bush in the state--a state which has been getting a lot of attention from the candidates while many of these other states haven't (yet).

[polpilot]

23. Unfortunately the south has to be forgotten this time. It will take a lot

remove them from Bush. Voting demo is like voting to go to hell for them. It's true.

Dean '04

[HFishbine]

34. Your Ignorance is Showing

I'm one of "them" and you're wrong.

[Vis Numar]

4. other notes on this poll:

Edwards is moving up, in both Iowa and in NH. It doesn't seem as if Clark is going to bother with Iowa. And this means that their support is likely to go to Edwards, combine this with the liklihood that Kerry throws his support to Gephardt at the caucus level, in order to not give Dean a victory, and you have Edwards making a surprise 3rd in Iowa.... this guy is the sleeper.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

14. You may be right

and I am liking Edwards more and more. I rewatched the Phoenix debate and thought he was just fantastic.

[CMT]

15. If he isn't the nominee

for president, I think that Edwards will be in the top tier for VP. Matter of fact, I'm currently liking him more for running mate for Dean than Clark right now.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. Me too

He's so damn likable, and articulate.

He was my brother's first choice, until he discovered Dean, so I did check him out a bit. Still think he's a bit inexperienced (at least in the public's eyes), but would make a great VP if he doesn't emerge as the nominee, which I also contend is possible.

[quinnox]

5. This is troubling (speaking with my Kerry hat on)

If Kerry is unable to narrow this down, Dean will take New Hampshire, which would not be a good thing for Kerry's chances the rest of the way.
There is still time, but Kerry needs to do something different to shake this race up.

As far as Iowa goes, I think Gephardt will pull it out, he is getting another big union endorsement today.

[LuminousX]

9. Speaking as a Dean supporter who likes to see tight races

Kerry needs to hit the streets in New Hampshire and clearly outline his plans to the common man. I know some would call it pandering, but I honestly believe if you get Kerry to spend three days meeting with very small groups of people, no more than fifty, not speechifying to them, but talking to them, answering their questions, he would close that gap quickly.

Kerry's plans and values aren't that much different than Dean's and he has Washington experience to back it up. He does understand how the game is played and whether I like it or not, no one is going to change the nature of the game just by stepping into office.

Of course, I have nearly the exact same advice for Dean to stay in the lead, except I'd be telling him to explain why his outsider role allows him to see thngs more clearly, so take it with a grain of salt.

[CMT]

10. a Scenerio can be made for Gephardt being the dark horse for nomination

1) He takes Iowa--even narrowly, he still takes the state (but I still think Dean can win there). He comes in third or so in NH--which is ok when you are up against two new englanders, then he surprises and wins SC (where he is only a point down right now). Of course we could come up with winning scenerios for almost all of them at this point.

[quinnox]

13. Yes

I have always said it will come down to Gephardt and one other candidate in the end.

[Larkspur]

11. With all of Gephardt's Union endorsements, his fundraising is the pits

and He doesn't have a lot of money to burn in Iowa and elsewhere. He spent more in QTR3 than he took in.

I think Gephardt will focus on Iowa and burn the rest of his wad in that state and attack Dean as constantly as he can with his limited funds. Kerry will join the attack, but will it make a difference? I predict that Gephardt will go down the drain. If Gephardt wins narrowly over Dean, it will be an empty win because his coffers will have been drained.

The question will be, can Dean prevail over a 2-front war from Gephardt and Kerry? That question will be answered by Dean's 200,000 plus People-powered fundraising army and the volunteers who go help canvass for him.

[CMT]

12. that's true

we have lots of ground troops and lots of money. The fourth quarter will be interesting. I don't think Dean will break his own record but I think he will raise more money again than anyone--though Clark may also do well.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. Yeah, the 90 minute speeches won't cut it

That's right. Kerry inflcited a 90 minute speech on some audience last week.
anyway, I am still not worried. Kerry will deliver NH.

[Larkspur]

8. Good new for Dean!

I'll be canvassing in New Hampshire for Dean over Nov 15-16 weekend. My birthday gift to the Gov. And plan on going over Dec 13-14, Jan 10-11, and Jan 24-25 and on the day of the NH Primary, Jan 27. Hoping to get my newfound Vermont AAUW friends to join me in January.

[Yupster]

17. All the candidates can breathe easier

If there was a chance that Clark would come in and blow away the field, it obviously isn't happening.

[tridim]

25. You're right

and looking at those polls I'd have to say Clark is now a second tier candidate. I'm very surprised.

[Bertrand]

26. Can we be Honest

He is at the top of all the National Polls, leading in NY, California, Wisconson, etc. and polling Decent/Well in the states that he has had a major disadvantage in in terms of finances and organization. I mean, this is getting pathetic.

[Hep]

19. Those SC numbers are going to change

We in NC 4 Dean are getting ready to do a letter writing campaign to regiestered dems in SC. Also, word on the street is that Inez Tenenbaum, one of the most prominant SC Dems has Deansters in her office.

When Dean sets up an official ofice in SC, those numbers are going to change big time.

[CMT]

20. I like your optimism

as it is these numbers put Dean in a pretty good position.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. Yeah, in Kerry's favor I suspect

but I could be wrong.

[Hep]

27. You're wrong

Isn't Kerry the one who said he could win without the south?

When's the last time Kerry went there? Early September to announce his candidacy?

How odd! He can win without the south, but that's where the MA senator makes his announcement! Talk about pandering.

Does he have an office in SC yet?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

32. Of course he has an office in SC given he announced there.

Don't give too much credence to these polls. The actual results in the primaries may depress you.

[Hep]

35. I'm not worried

You don't have to have a campaign office to declare poresidency in a different state.

But I looked it up, and he does, so never mind.

[Silverhair]

24. This is not good news.

New Hampshire is Vermont's neighbor state. The other number seem to indicate that Dean does well in his native New England but seems to be limited to New England. Our eventual nominee is going to need broad support, not just regional.

[JaneQPublic]

28. Margin of Error: +/- 4.4 points. In SC all Dems listed are within 4 points

In other words, In SC, it a statistical dead heat, or "too close to call."

[CMT]

29. NH is also Massachusetts neighbor

and gets much of its tv coverage from the Boston area. Second, Dean is showing more than new england support. He is neck and neck with Gephardt in Iowa, a must-win state for Gep and is only four-points out of first in SC which seems to be up for grabs. He also is leading in Michigan according to a recent poll. Is running slightly behind or within moe with Gen. Clark in California and New York. And a poll in Maryland last month had Dean in the lead. Also your argument could be made for SC and Edwards. Edwards leads (according to this poll) in SC by only one-point and he is from a neighboring state.

[JaneQPublic]

31. Don't forget the Pacific Northwest

Dean's rallies in Portland and Seattle drew thousands of people.

[ozone_man]

30. Massachusetts is New Hampshire's neighbor.

Alot more NH population next to Massachusetts than Vermont. Kerry is cooked if he loses NH in my opinion. Look how well Dean is doing in Iowa, even with Gep from Missouri.

Dean looks pretty good even in South Carolina, considering the competition. Thats all the data in this poll, but Dean is strong in California and elsewhere. It's early still.