Even if the Economy Improves, Will the 2004 Tax Season Stop the Progress?

[Composed Thinker]

Even if the economy continues to improve, will the 2004 tax season stop the progress? (I'm not talking about a full scale recession.) Or will it be strong enough to deal with any damage?

P.S. I know that I created a thread like this recently, but it's an important question. Additionally, not that many people responded, and I can't find the other thread.

[Sagan]

1. I don't know about the 2004 tax season, but...

I do know that this winter is going to be cold and bleak from an economic point of view.

I'm expecting a very, very poor holiday shopping season.

[Composed Thinker]

3. Why?

[A_Tra]

8. Do you

have numbers to back up that assesment? Consumer confidence is up in October.

People are disturbingly pessimistic on this board.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Composed Thinker]

4. I'm interested in reading what others think

[Isome]

5. What makes you think the economy will improve?

e o m

[Composed Thinker]

7. Well, there are signs that it's improving or that it will improve

Of course, we'll have to wait until next month to see if trends are starting.

[Isome]

10. Where are the signs of improvement?

.::Economic Policy Institute::.

Long-term unemployment reveals need for another extension of unemployment insurance benefits--
As of the second quarter of 2003, the number of unemployed who have been without work for more than 39 weeks has risen to 1.3 million. The number of people who have been unemployed for more than 39 weeks is a measure of the hardship currently experienced by the long-term unemployed. ... .::Snapshot::. .

Payrolls up 57,000, but unemployment unchanged --
Although payrolls increased in September for the first time in eight months, unemployment failed to decline, and the number of long-term unemployed reached the highest level in more than 10 years. For analysis of the most recent numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, see this month's .::Jobs Picture::. .

[Composed Thinker]

15. Well, put some of that in a positive light

[Isome]

17. positive light...

There is no economic improvement as yet, ergo there is no positive light to shed on the cited text. However, you've yet to list the improvements or signs of improvements in the economy you've repeatedly referred to in your posts.

[Beetwasher]

6. I've got an idea

How about telling us what YOU think and then others can respond w/ what they think. That's called a conversation and it's what people do on discussion boards. You seem to post these seemingly supercilious questions w/ no end and when people answer and comment you go silent without acknowledging their remarks. Granted, I'm merely basing this on a couple of threads of yours I've seen, but I suspect you continue this pattern.

[Isome]

9. The various sources I trust...

don't paint a rosy picture of our economy.

.::Signs of Inflation::.
Strong producer price appreciation may signal consumer price increases to come.

.::Good, but Not 1999 Good::.
The hyped expectations for the upcoming holiday retail season are overblown.

.::From Brookings::.

Realistic budget projections show a fundamental, persistent, and growing shortfall of projected revenues relative to spending. This implies that the United States is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path and an imbalanced medium-term path. Although the CBO baseline projectes unified deficits that average 1 percent of GDP and shrink over the next decade, realistic assumptions about current policy imply persistent deficits of in excess of 3 percent of GDP in the unified budget and in excess of 5 percent of GDP exclusive of retirement trust funds.

[A_Tra]

12. I dont

think 1999 was necesarily good. We were peaked out and a few years earlier Greenspan dropped the ball.

An increase in inflation from where we are at right now is not necesarily a bad thing. We stand at an annual rate increase of about 1.2% so moves upward would not automaticaly be horrible.

I agree with you that the federal deficit is troubling. But many industrial nations are experiencing budget deficits in excess of 3% of GDP, including Germany and France.

[snippy]

14. Cyclical deficits of 3% of GDP are no problem, but the US is back to

structural deficits which will be closer to 4% of GDP which are a problem. Next years deficit will be very close to 6% of GDP.

Both Whistle Ass's OMB and the now highly partisan CBO are forecasting that the annual deficit will be reduced by 50% by the end of Whistle Ass's second term. However, both of these forecasts include the assumption that the Whistle Ass tax cuts will expire and not be made permanent. Neither the Tax Cut Monkeys nor the Reich wing fundamentalists will allow Whistle Ass or the republican Congress to let this occur.

[snippy]

11. Why would the 2004 "Tax Season" harm, rather than help, the economy?

Your other thread can be found here. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=538901

[Composed Thinker]

13. Well, if people face huge cuts in spending and/or tax increases,

wouldn't that hurt the economy and upset people?

[snippy]

16. Why would either of those things occur in 2004?

Neither has significant support in the republican party which controls both the White House and the Congress. They are exremely unlikely to occur in an election year.

[Composed Thinker]

18. I believe those things will happen because...

states were supposed to have bad budget problems this year and even worse problems in 2004. If I am wrong, by the way, tell me.

[snippy]

19. Most states with budget problems have already raised taxes and

cut spending to address those problems. As a result of those tax increases and the improved GDP growth, state tax revenues are now increasing so the problems should not be worse in 2004.

[Composed Thinker]

20. From where are you getting that information?

[Composed Thinker]

21. BUMP

[area51]

22. Economy

The economy hasn't improved and can't improve under the reign of George W. Hoover. Only when a democrat is elected will the economy have a chance of recovering and employers will consider hiring new workers.