CHINA IN SPACE: The new kid on the block (Warning, long)

[Emperor_Norton_II]

This week, the People's Republic of China made history. Not that you'd really know much about it if you paid attention to the Western news.

At about 8pm or so MDT Tuesday night - or 9am Wednesday morning in Inner Mongolia - the Chinese did what they've been saying they'd do for the last two weeks and launched the Shenzhou V spacecraft with yuhangyuan<*> Yang Liwei onboard for a 21-hour trip in orbit. Some 21 hours leater, Shenzhou V has landed in the desert of northwestern China and Yang Liwei is officially the newest and greatest hero in the People's Republic.

When the news broke in the States it was, ironically, Matt Drudge who got to the official press statement first. Reuters and the BBC web site followed up with their own stories. The American news media, on the other hand, spent the better part of an hour on "special reports" featuring Kobe Bryant and other celebrities of dubious import. The "live" CNN Headline News didn't even so much as blink, not wanting to break into the "live" (read: prerecorded) half-hourly news show to announce the launch. It took the better part of an hour for CNN proper to run a segment on the launch, which amounted to a 5 minute bit where the anchor and "space correspondent" Miles O'Brien traded comments about the Shenzhou being "a knockoff of the Soyuz." (That's the actual wording, said at least five times during the segment.)

But enough bitching and moaning about how horrible the media is. Let's get down to the important stuff. What does China's first manned flight mean in the greater scheme of things?

To the Chinese, the space program in general and Shenzhou V in particular are sources of national pride. The entire country has been actively awaiting the first manned flight since the government announced it was planned for this month. It's seen as a sign that China has finally arrived at the vaunted status of superpower, and can't be kicked around as a backwards nation by the old colonial powers.

To the other up-and-comers like India, Japan and Brazil, Shenzhou is a spur for futher development. The more the merrier, after all.

To the established space powers, it might not mean much at first. After all, both the US and Russia have reasonably successful space programs, and China is only just starting out. But the gap between where China is and the American space program is as of October 16, 2003 is not as large as expected. The Chinese program has one great advantage over the US and Soviet programs at their equivalent stages: They don't have to prove anything is possble. While the Chinese need to train yuhangyuan with the appropriate skillsets for EVA, rendezvous and docking, etc. - at the same time building up a good-sized pool of experienced and rookie pilots - they don't have to do these things completely blind, the way that Gagarin, Shepard, Leonov, et. al. did.

What does that mean? Well, it means that while they have ways to go, China can successfully bypass a lot of operational hurdles that the Russians and Americans had to deal with in the beginning. Shenzhou, for example, is right out of the box the equivalent of Soyuz, which was designed as a competitor for the Apollo spacecraft. In terms of technology, the Chinese have successfully shaved a good five-six years off the development table. Given that China has announced a planned lunar base by 2020, and left hints that things might move more swiftly, not having to fiddle around with Vostok or Gemini-equivalent technology is a big bonus.

So, once Yang Liwei lands and the preparations begin for Shenzhou VI, there will be some sort of response from the other space powers. That response is most likely to be tepid in the short term; the Shuttle/ISS program are recovering from the aftermath of the Columbia accident, which left the entire program in shambles. Not to mention the host of other difficulties that the US and Russia are facing elsewhere, plus political leadership which doesn't exactly show much interest in... well, anything that doesn't match their agendas one for one. So don't hold out for George W. Bush appearing before a joint session of Congress demanding a return to the Moon by the end of the decade. At the same time, you can put any paranoia about the Demon Dubya militarizing the space program to deal with the Hated Yellow Red Menace (Would that make it actually an Orange Menace? No, never mind...) out of your head. NASA doesn't have the needed visible support or emnity to be either torn down or built up, so the current policy of general neglect can be expected to continue.

In the medium term, should China start to make good on its plans, then we may very well see an increased interest in spaceflight coming from the powers that be. Congress has already acted, sort of, with the Space Exploration Act of 2003. The Act, while not exactly a ringing call to arms (nor budgeting for such) is a beginnning, and has a fair groundswell of minority party support - including, to my eternal surprise, deeply left-wing Democratic presidential contender Dennis Kucinich<**>. The Act has not been passed by both houses, though, nor has it been signed into law. However, should the Chinese put in a request to allow an upcoming Shenzhou to approach ISS in order to pay a courtesy call (Which, incidentally, it can do; the only thing not of 100% Chinese make on the spacecraft is the Russian-made docking collar, which is the same design as that on ISS, Soyuz and Shuttle.) we'll probably see a great deal more fervor over the possibility of being left behind. Depending on the success of the Chinese ventures, we will probably see NASA become a little more adventurous in terms of manned space flight.

My own cracked crystal ball predicts that there will be a Chinese lunar landing mission by 2012, followed by another space race, probably with Mars as the primary target. Who gets there first depends on how serious the race is taken. Without serious public support in the US/Europe/Russia (and no, the Mars Society does not count as serious public support), I'll predict a sucessful Chinese landing by 2025, with catchup landings made by the other space powers within the following five years. After that... I don't know.


I hearby open the floor to questions, comments and irrational hatred.


<*> I'm using the term "yuhangyuan" instead of the more popular "taikonaut" here for a simple reason: The PRC astronaut corps are officially called yuhangyuan, not taikonauts - that's the invention of some random nitwit in Singapore.

<**> Here's a poser for you: Most of the pundits, bloggers, etc. who are also hard-core space advocates are conservative or libertarian in political leanings. At the very least they share a deep distrust for liberals and other left-wingers. And yet, the supporters of the Space Exploration Act are all liberal Democrats, including Kucinich, whose rhetoric and policies are reminicent of the days when Walter Mondale - a long time enemy of the American space program - could be considered "firey." Ain't life funny somedays?

[localroger]

1. Pretty much agreed

I don't think I'd agree with your cracked crystal ball completely. So far China is promising another orbital mission in a year or two, hardly the pace that would bring them the Moon by 2012. (Remember, they need at minimum a new enormous booster system to get to the Moon, in addition to their proven manned capability.) They are taking a stately and conservative pace, not the mad rush which JFK inspired and which the Cold War funded in our case.

But I would not be disappointed to see our nation regain interest in deep space. The Shuttle has always been a deeply flawed disappointment to me, limited as it is by design to LEO. A capsule-based program with a variety of Big Dumb Boosters would be much more efficient and versatile. We had that in Apollo, then trashed it in a fit of stupidity. Had we simply kept improving our proven technology instead of going back to the drawing board, we'd be in much better shape having spent a lot less money for the hundred more missions we've accomplished at this time. (And we'd probably not have two handfuls of dead astronauts IMHO.) Such is the cost of lying to yourself institutionally about what you really want from a program.

[Emperor_Norton_II]

3. On cracked crystal balls

Well, in terms of getting to the Moon and back there's a couple of ways of doing it. One of the the big things about Apollo and the race in general was that it warped the general line of thinking about how you get to the Moon.

Apollo and the aborted Soyuz-LK programs worked essentially on what was a direct ascent - stick everything on top of one booster and fire it off. That's certainly the fastest way of doing it, but it isn't automatically the best way. From what I've been able to glean from sources like AvLeak and the ever-faithful Encyclopedia Astronautica, the Chinese plan is a bit more conservative; they'll assemble a lunar-capable Shenzhou, a lander and an insertion booster in Earth orbit, after each one goes up on a seperate launch. It's feasable and could probably be done using three Long March 2 rockets.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi localroger!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ms. Clio]

2. Very interesting and astute analysis

But I'm not sure I agree that we won't see "Dubya militarizing the space program to deal with the Hated Yellow Red Menace." According to this article in the UK Telegraph:

Two years ago, a report commissioned by Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, warned of the danger of a "Space Pearl Harbor" if America did not take action to protect itself.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/06/08/wspace08.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/06/08/ixnewstop.html

So maybe the Yellow Peril rhetoric will be served up again, after all.

[Emperor_Norton_II]

5. Frankly, I doubt it.

Pre 9/11 I might've agreed with you (remember the spy plane debacle?) but nowadays Bush has the Not Really A War On Islam, Really to keep himself and his neocon buddies busy for another term or two if need be.

OTOH, if Jerry Pournelle starts bragging in public about bending the ears of "senior White House officials," then I give you leave to start worrying.

[DrWeird]

4. I HATE METAMORPHIC ROCKS!

AND TELEPHONES!

ARRRRRRGH!

[Emperor_Norton_II]

6. ...thank you for sharing

[DrWeird]

7. Always willing to share

"irrational hatred'

[Emperor_Norton_II]

8. Usually the irrational hatred is more personal in nature

After nearly a thousand posts, all of them controversial, I tend to expect flamewars breaking out wherever I go.

[Emperor_Norton_II]

10. kick

In order to satisfy my ego.

Also, another poser: As of this morning, I have not yet heard of an official acknowledgement from the President of the United States regarding the Shenzhou launch. The most senior administration official to comment has been NASA head Sean O'Keefe, who offered his congratulations.

Anybody know why Bush has been remaining silent? Or even have a (non-sarcastic) guess?

[Capt_Nemo]

11. Very good article, Emperor!

Although I wouldn't be surprised with the support of space
exploration for peaceful purposes by leftist types (I'm one of them)
;-)

Anyway I would like just to add to your observation on "comments about the Shenzhou being "a knockoff of the Soyuz"", that sometimes
come accompanied by statements to the effect that Shenzhou is "30
year old technology".

By the same standard we would have to consider the Boeing 737-700
(rolled out late 1996)
as "30 year old technology", just because the design which it
evolved from flew for the first time in 1967 (am I wrong or was it
the very same year of the ill-fated Soyuz-1 flight?).

Not that the chinese engineers or informed people throughout the world
care about this bulshit reporting but what is unsettling is the
nationalist propaganda rationale behind it.

[Emperor_Norton_II]

12. Nationalism

first time in 1967 (am I wrong or was it the very same year of the ill-fated Soyuz-1 flight?).

Yeah, '67 was not a good year for space exploration projects.

Not that the chinese engineers or informed people throughout the world care about this bulshit reporting but what is unsettling is the
nationalist propaganda rationale behind it.

I'm not sure it's national propaganda so much as it is nationalist apathy. Let's face it, the US in aggregate doesn't really have much of an interest in what happens outside our borders unless somebody's actively trying to kill us. At the moment, China is not trying to kill us, whereas assorted nebulous terrorist organizations are. Therefore, we ignore China.

That, plus there aren't enough space geeks in the Nielsen families to matter, while there are tons of Lakers fans.