Who is going to win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina?

[CoffeePlease1947]

Seems to be alot of talk about who is going to win these states.

I think Gephardt will win Iowa, Dean NH, and Edwards South Carolina.

I don't think these primaries mean anything. Kerry, Dean and Lieberman are all from that area near NH.

Gephardt has been working Iowa since 1985 and comes from next door.

Edwards was born in SC and is a Senator from North Carolina. No biggy if he wins their either.

I think Michigan, California, Florida, and New York are the ones that are of interest to see how candidates are doing in.

Who do you think will win Iowa, NH, SC, and do you think it really matters?

Mike

[La_Serpiente]

1. There are some other things going on

Yeah...I think Gephardt will win Iowa.

Dean will win New Hampshire

And either Edwards or Clark will win South Carolina.

However, I think Dean has a good chance of winning Arizona.

What do I think?

I think this primary is literally a tossup. I think the people who will actually be choosing the president will be the ones at the Convention.

Florida...hmm...I think that could go to Liberman. And New York might go to either Dean, Kerry, or Clark.

Michigan...either Gephardt, Dean, or Clark.

The south will be split between Edwards and Clark.

The Northwest is going to Dean. That's what I think.

[CoffeePlease1947]

2. I think you are mostly correct

But I think California, New York, Texas, and Florida, and the South will go to Clark.

The northwest will be Dean and Clark. The mountain states will be split too amoungst Clark and Dean.

Gephardt, Dean, and Clark will split the midwest.

Where is Kerry going to win a state besides his own? I also wonder about Lieberman ever winning a state besides his own.

Mike

[Bombtrack]

3. Florida doesn't have an important primary

at least it shouldn't according to all historical primaries, considering it isn't until the very end of spring, at least a week or 2 after the other big super tuesday primaries. Same day as Louisiana.

[CoffeePlease1947]

4. I am think delegates here

If any candidate wins a state, I don't think they win it by a large margin unless it is their home state. So the thing to look at is delegates.

Florida, California, New York, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, PA, IL, NJ, Mass, Georgia, NC, and VA, added with superdelegates make up the majority of delegates to win. That is why they are important. A big win in Cali makes up for the entire rest of the West.

Mike

[Bombtrack]

5. PA doesn't have a primary

and NC doesn't have one before summer as far as I know.

Have you looked at the primary schedule? What matters is how long it will take for all but one candidate to drop out. But the schedule is designed so that we'll have a candidate WELL before the convention.

[CoffeePlease1947]

7. We may not have a candidate before the convention

Out of nine candidates, many equal in support, at least at the ones that could win, may not gain enough delegates to win.

Could it be that none are strong enough to get 50% of the delegates when Clark has 20%, and Dean has 13%? I think so.

I think it could be limited down to two, three, or four candidates, but there is a strong chance we could have a broker's convention.

Mike

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. What's important in these early primaries/caucuses

is not who wins, but who loses. If, for example, someone NOT from the Northeast won NH, that would be news. If Gephardt loses IA, that will be considered important. Same thing for Edwards in SC.

[dofus]

8. Gephardt is NOT going to win Iowa.

Dean is.

At the Harkin Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa in September, easily 40 percent of the attendees were wearing Dean shirts. There was a separate rally for Dean before the main event, attended by 800-1000 supporters.

Besides, Isn't Dean leading in the Iowa polls? And Dean supporters have been writing letters to Iowans quite regularly. I don't think Gephardt is.

[mikehiggins]

9. Dean, Dean, who knows?

I think Dr. Dean has a real good shot at taking both Iowa and New Hampshire, giving Gephardt and Kerry body blows they may not recover from. Clark may do well in New Hampshire but its hard to see how he'll be able to overcome the year of work Dean put into that state. If Clark shows the banner in New Hampshire, getting into the top tier behind Dean but ahead of or on the same level as Kerry and Gephardt he'll do much better in the other primaries.

Whether true or not, the idea that Clark is more electable than Dean is taking hold and will influence the future primaries quite a lot. Clark has another thirty days or so to get his campaign on track. If he can't manage that by Christmas, he'll be in a lot of trouble. If he can, all the things the "pundits" are talking about will become "old news" to quote the California governor elect.

Despite what Barbara Bush mumbles, this Democratic field is really quite solid. With the exception of Al Sharpton, I think any of these candidates could do a good job as President.

I prefer, and back, Clark but I'd have no problem backing any of the others, though I do dislike Joe Lieberman quite a bit.

My ideal ticket? Clark/Braun. But that's just me.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. C-Span read a piece this morning quoting a Clark campaign

staffer saying that they're only expecting a 4th place finish in NH. Maybe they're just underplaying it. :shrug:

[sable302]

17. I thought Gephardt always wins Iowa

Happens every time....what changed?

[libertad]

21. Dean is drawing alot of attention from Gephardt in Iowa this time.

I know in the past Gephardt has been very strong in Iowa, but I'm not sure it will go his way this time. Iowans are very politically savvy and I don't think they will fall for a "newcomer" like Clark.

[Ficus]

25. I was at the Steak Fry

and the Dean folks were handing them out FREE as long as you wore it. People, like me, who don't even really like Dean a whole lot, still like free stuff.

:dem: :dem:

[CMT]

10. here are my early predictions

Iowa--narrowly Dean. Why? He has a great organization in the state. Others have commented on this. In a caucus state organization counts and I think snow or ice Dean supporters will attend their local caucuses. Gep has some good union support, but I've noticed in the Iowa polls that Dean actually leads among the rank and file.
I think Gep will be a solid second, but that will not be good enough--he needs to win this state or he is out. John Kerry will be third followed by John Edwards.

New Hampshire--it will be nip and tuck between the New England boys but in the end--given a bounce by his victory in Iowa, Howard Dean will win NH by somewhere under 10-points, probably 5 or 6 points over John Kerry. Edwards will be a surprising third, followed by Clark and then Lieberman. Gep will not be much of a factor since I think if he loses Iowa he will withdrawl from the race. Lieberman on the other hand will proclaim his fifth place showing a "victory" and go on to SC.

South Carolina--John Edwards wins the state. I think he will be followed by Clark, Sharpton, Dean, and Kerry.

However, on the same day Arizona and New Mexico vote and I think there is a very good chance that Dean may take both of these states which would blunt his showing in SC.

By big prediction: The race for the Democratic nomination will eventually come down to Howard Dean and John Edwards.

I probably will be wrong on all of this, but there it is.

[HFishbine]

13. Concur

It's little more than fun to play these guessing games, but hey, I like fun.

I agree Edwards will be a surprising dark horse. While I don't believe it will be a squeeker, I agree with you that it will come down to Dean and Edwards -- and what does that suggest about the ticket? (Of all the sniping, have you noticed any Dean <---> Edwards barbs being thrown? Nope.)

[OKNancy]

14. Hey why does everyone discount Oklahoma?

we have more delegates than New Mexico, and twice as many as New Hampshire.
Also:
Delaware
Missouri
North Dakota

are having primaries on Feb. 3rd.

[CMT]

18. OK

if Gep is out by the time of Missouri--I think Dean is in good shape to win there as he has been running a solid second in polls. Oklahoma may be a good state for Edwards or Clark. Delaware and ND, I don't know enough about to make a prediction.

[OKNancy]

19. Lieberman is ahead

and expected to win Delaware. (bleck)

[TLM]

24. You know I think you're right on with this one...

And I also think that at this point Edwards is the likely VP on a Dean ticket.


I hope we see Clark fade away like a stale beer fart.

[mrgorth]

12. Dean, Dean, Edwards...

but that'll be all Edwards wins.

[VermontDem2004]

15. Dean,Dean,Dean

Dean in all 50 states!!!!! I am dreaming but I think Dean can win Iowa and New Hampshire.

[mndemocrat_29]

16. Iowa

Gephardt will beat Dean by a nose:

Gephardt-30
Dean-28
Kerry-16
Edwards-11
Clark-8
Other-7

Dean and Kerry will be in a statistical tie:

Dean-26
Kerry-26
Clark-12
Lieberman-10
Gephardt-8
Edwards-8
Other-10

South Carolina will have Edwards eke over Clark:

Edwards-19
Clark-17
Dean-16
Kerry-16
Lieberman-10
Sharpton-10
Gephardt-7
Other-5

[GalleryGod]

20. The Yankees

:wtf:

[Classical_Liberal]

22. Iowa goes to Dean. NH goes to Dean

SC goes to Edwards or Clark.

[Ficus]

23. Dean WILL win Iowa

Being someone who lives in Iowa and watches what is going on, I can gaurentee that Dean will win here. No question. Here's why:

1. One thing to remember about the caucuses is that it tests organization rather than wide voter appeal. Dean's organization is by far the most extensive and active in this state, next to maybe John Kerry, in my opinion.

2. The 15% rule: if the candidate that you caucus for doesn't get 15% of the people at your site, your candidate is not viable, and you must either be undecided, or choose another candidate. For example, I am a Kucinich supporter, and if he doesn't pull enough at my caucus site, I may (don't know yet) jump on board with Dean. I think Dean will pull more of these people in on caucus night than Dick Gephardt.

3. Gephardt's support doesn't have wide appeal here. Mostly labor and old school activists. Dean has many of the younger and middle aged non labor folks here, and those people are far more fired up than Gephardt's folks. There's just no excitement here for Dick, just loyalty. (don't get me wrong, loyalty is a good thing too)

4. Dean's only snag could come with the huge amount of undecideds here still left. If he continues to get hammered he may not pick up anyone new, but I doubt Gephardt will either.

:dem: :dem:

[mndemocrat_29]

26. For your number four point

If Dean and Gephardt aren't going to pick up the undecideds, who is? Kerry? Edwards?

Just asking.

[Ficus]

27. Dean and undecideds

Yeah, probably mixed between all of them. Actually right now, I think Gephardt is winning in the "polls" but I wouldn't count on him winning. But hey, who knows. And yeah, I think Kerry and Edwards might pick up undecideds.

Which for them is good, since they don't have to win Iowa, just finish above 3rd.

[poskonig]

28. Dean, Dean, and Edwards

If Gephardt wins Iowa he can break out on the 3rd. Though Dean is fighting a two front war, he still has more resources in terms of money and organization than Gephardt. It is going to be close, but if I were forced to bet, I'd bet on Dean.

Iowa and NH matter because of the free airtime. For example, if Geppy gets Iowa, this will enable him to win in Oklahoma, Michigan, North Dakota, and Missouri on the 3rd and 7th, which makes things very interesting.

SC matters less since there are a bunch of states in the mix that day, including Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Delaware.