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Because of trade ties and the differences in size between the two markets (Canada's population is roughly 10% of the US) if Canadian businesses were shut off from the US market we would be in a whole world of hurt. In a trade war the US would also hurt, but not to the same extent. While the US does need our oil and natural gas, if Canada ever threatened the US economy by shutting down energy exports to the US, I have no doubt the Canadian government would be overthrown either by overt or covert means.
If a Bush administration really decided to pull its weight to get the Canadian's onside in some military adventure, I would not be surprised if the Canadian politicians folded like a cheap lawn chair. Of course if a revitalised conservative party ever came into power after the amalgamation of the wingnut Alliance Party and the Progressive Conservatives (as currently being discussed), it could be a moot point, especially if the more winger Alliance party emerges as the dominant power in the amalgamated conservative party. The current Alliance leader (and leader of the opposition), Stephen Harper, would love nothing more than to assure the Shrub of Canada's loyalty by afixing his lips to Shrub's posterior on behalf of all of Canada.
Since the Canadian military is small and not that well equipped for major military campaigns and therefore not really capable of offering much support in military terms, the main advantage of having Canada onside in a war is in the PR it could bring in the court of world opinion. I figure the Bush gang will probably just let things slide and don't slide as long as we keep shipping oil and natural gas south and don't cause too many waves by offering moral support to anti-Bush forces.
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