Only one US Senator can be defeated for relection in 2004.

[TakebackAmerica]

The five of the six closest races will be fought in open seats.
The on incumbent seanto with a close race is Lisa Murkowski. She was appointed to her father's old Senate seat after he was elected governor.

North Carolina: On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning

South Carolina: This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint My Prediction: Toss up.

Georgia: Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
My prediction: Likely GOP pick-up

Oklahoma: After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian is running to replace Nickles. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
My Prediction: Toss Up



Alaska: In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face of not only Knowles but a vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching
My Prediction: Toss up

Illinois: Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
My Prediction: Likely Democratic Pickup

[UrbScotty]

1. Anyone could be defeated.

Just because someone is favored to be re-elected doesn't mean they can't be defeated. There are 28 or 29 incumbent senators running for re-election, and until the election, any of them can be defeated.

[PaDUer]

38. Anyone sure can be defeated

in the elections now adays since the election of 2000...they've got the diebold machines doing the electing..

[AP]

2. Bowles is leading in NC polls right now.

By the way.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Colorado - Campbell vs. Udall

Expect it to be competitive with extremely popular Udall defeating the right-wing fuckass Indian turncoat Nightmare-Campbell.

And I disagree with all those you have chosen to lean GOP - remember, it's the people who vote with their wallets, and by God, if you remember clearly in 1940's, FDR swept the Repuklicans out of the majority and gave us the New Deal. I expect Dean to help remove Chimp and the Rethuglicans and give us a brighter, more secure future.

By the way, Alaskans HATES the Murkowski's now with the nepotism in place. Tony Knowles should defeat the Murk daughter easily and throw out one of two Alaskan Repuklicans out. Stevens is expected to lose when his seat is up again.

Hawkeye-X

[roguevalley]

6. Alaskans DO hate Murkowski, both of them.

There are rumblings of a gubernatorial recall of Murkowski over the longevity bonus and nepotism.

I hope they go. I would CARTWHEEL NAKED <a scary thought> through the snow if Stevens goes. And then, the Congressman-For-Life <tm> Young.
Could I dare have that much hope?

[Bandit]

14. I hope you and Roguevalley are right but it has been my dissappointing

experience that Alaskans that have an R after their name will vote R no matter what. There are truly some good ones here (Jay Hammond) that are Republicans but the majority of the rabble are quite brainwashed. You can ask them to name one thing Don Young has done for Alaska and they will just give you a blank stare and then go vote straight Republican ticket. We have had solid Republican Representation for two decades or longer and still these people will complain about how the Democrats are ruining Alaska. :crazy:

[mndemocrat_29]

18. Has Udall announced his candidacy?

I keep thinking that he'll run in 2008 against Allard.

I'm hoping Hart v. Campbell in 2004.

[NewJerseyDem]

35. No

Apparently democratic leaders are urging Udall to run. He says that he will decide by the end of the year. Hart has said that he won't run against Udall, but wouldn't rule out a run if Udall decided against it. At the same time, Udall said he wouldn't run if Hart runs.

It seems like the ball is in Udall's cout but if he says no that Hart may run.

Allard has indicated that he probably won't run in 2008. He has a term limits pledge, not that anyone ever keeps those. He may run but there is certainly a possbility of an open seat in 2008.

[mndemocrat_29]

19. I think that Sen. Murkowski is vulnerable in 2004

And if we can attract a great candidate, we could possibly take down Gov. Murkwoski.

However, if Sen. Stevens runs in 2008, he'll be unbeatable. He's never even come close to having a tough campaign. However, I'm guessing he'll retire in 2008. An open seat would be possible. For. Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer could pull off this race, especially if Knowles is the other senator.

[RummyTheDummy]

4. I live in Oklahoma....

And that seat is a Dem pick up. The only Repuke in the race getting any attention is the mayor of OKC who is about as compelling as a root canal. He's a typical "big fish in a small pond-city politics guy" who isn't ready for prime time.

Carson is well thought of (though he would probably not be popular amongst the DU faithful)among republicans here and the other possible Dem canidate is our AG Drew Edmondson who recently brought the MCI Wolrd Com clowns up on state fraud charges. I like him better than Carson, but either guy beats what will be an extrordinarily weak Repuke.

[OKNancy]

7. I like Carson better

because he's clean. Drew has been around so long that he has made enemies and he's also a part of the back-slapping good-old-boy network. My opinion is based only on who I think will win, not political positions.

Here is a picture of both of them for non- Okies. Brad is the blond with the sunglasses, Drew is the one in the middle.

[JasonBerry]

27. Good analysis

I think this is an interesting national race. Your point about the new kid on the block is very poignant in these times. Unlike Rummy, above, I am worried about the Republican because (R) means a lot of $$$.

I have met Carson in Washington. He is more conservative than I usually like, but I was impressed with his demeanor and ability (and willingness!) to listen to other (more progressive) viewpoints. He would be a good pickup for Democrats and would serve Oklahoma well.

[TakebackAmerica]

34. Nice picture

Carson looks great in sunglasses. :)

[ShaneGR]

25. That seat is Carson's to have....

The national party will back him with dollars.

[Bombtrack]

5. You're really off the mark

Illinois is a tossup at best.

Hynes, Chico, Skinner and Obama all have big flaws as candidates and Rove's preferred candidate, Jack Ryan is very strong. The ideal for a state like Illinois.

As much as the ignorantly optimistic don't want to admit it, the odds are stacked way against us in election 04 both for whitehouse and congress. If we nominate a weak nominee for president particularly(such as Gephardt or Dean), we could very easily lose 7-8 more seats.

I was reading posts here and at some similar websites/blogs that just KNEW we were going to win 5 seats in the midterms. They were deadwrong.

People here just assume that we could never lose the senate seats of Boxer, Schumer, Daschle, Dorgan, Lincoln etc.. Or that any nominee will automatically win the Northeast, Pacific coast and the upper midwests electoral votes. Well it seems like every election people who make those kind of assumptions end up wrong, and lately it's been democrats.

[hang a left]

8. There were a few stolen midterm seats. Doncha think?

[Jackpine Radical]

37. Nah. Cleland lost the Diebold vote fair and square.

.

[w4rma]

11. It's too bad you spend more time attacking other Dems

instead of promoting your candidate and donating to your candidate. He might have more than 1% or 2% nationally if you did.

[Bombtrack]

12. as if your post isn't an attack

or that it makes any sense.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. And how *exactly* is Edwards better?

I DESPISE Washington insiders for President. The last one was John F. Kennedy, and Edwards is no Kennedy.

Hawkeye-X

[JohnKleeb]

20. umm

So you despise everyone who has ever ran for president let it be in the primary or general election who comes from the senate or the house. I dont think you mean that, but no offense but "Washington Insider" is kind of an odd litmus test. :shrug: Just saying is all.

[Bombtrack]

26. one, because he could perform the first job of a politician

which is to get elected, which Dean could not in all probability.

And second he would govern I believe with the best set of ideas, values and initiatives of any of the candidates.

I really don't see how Edwards is more of an insider than Dean, who chaired the national governors association and was involved with dem party politics for decades, and was born into the upper class eastern establishment.

It's a really limited viewpoint to make judgments about a politician based on the fact that one's mailbox has been in Georgetown rather than Montpelier for the last 5 years

[mndemocrat_29]

21. Illinois went overwhelmingly for the Democrat in 2002

And that was a year when Republicans did well nationally. Republicans don't stand a prayer in 2004. Jack Ryan is a third tier candidate, at best. Dan Hynes is a known quantity and has been elected statewide. He'll be able to take on Jack Ryan. Additionally, if any of the other Democrats has the support to beat Hynes in the primary, they'll be able to win in the general election. Either way, the Democrats should win this fairly easily.

[NewJerseyDem]

32. I disagree

We should win the seat in Illinois. It is possible that we could lose the seat but it is the second most liberal state to have a republican senator. The more liberal state is Rhode Island and I don't think that any of the republicans are nearly as liberal as Chafee. Hynes got 63% of the vote last year to be Comptroller so he has a proven record of victory in Illinois. Barack Obama is also a strong, more liberal candidate that can win in this state which is the most liberal state that isn't on the east or west coast.

We won't lose 7-8 seats. I would have agreed that we were in serious trouble a few months ago but the republicans have failed to get any strong candidates to run in California, New York, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Arkansas. Of course Schumer will win election because nobody significant is running against just like Dorgan in North Dakota. Daschle has no serious opposition unless Thune runs in which case he is vulnerable. Boxer still has weak opposition even though she clearly is someone who will probably never be able to win overwhelmingly and all the top tier republican candidates have said no to a race against Lincoln in Arkansas.

I think that we have an uphill battle in 2004 but I don't think that there is any likelihood that we will get massacred in Congress.

I think that your statement that if we nominate Gephardt or Dean that we will do horribly is just stupid. Polls have actually indicated that Gephardt may be our strongest candidate. Any candidate could turn out to be bad come 2004 and could hurt our candidates but we don't know if that is the case as of now.

[CoffeePlease1947]

9. Good points--but you forgot Florida

I am so certain that we can hang on to that seat. Even if Graham decides to run again. That is a tough situation.

What do you think will happen in Florida?

Also, it is possible that Patty Murry could lose to Nethercutt in Washington. Not as likely considering WA is more liberal and Nethercutt comes from the weaker less populated eastern part of the state.

Mike

[mndemocrat_29]

22. Nethercutt has made some really stupid remarks recently

And Washington will have a stronger Democratic turnout because of the presidential races.

As for Florida, I'd say it's safe Democratic if Graham runs (he's still Mr. Florida), and even without Graham, Democrats have far better candidates than the Republicans. Republicans seem to be uniting behind 2000 loser Bill McCollum, while Democrats have statewide elected Betty Castor and Rep. Peter Deutsch.

[TakebackAmerica]

33. I hope

that graham will stay. If not get ready for a tough battle ahead.

[OKNancy]

10. Forgot to mention in my other post: but: THANK YOU

I love threads like this!

[HFishbine]

13. Well, you did say "leaning"

"North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning"

Maybe. Barely. At this moment. It's really up to Bowles. Burr is a toe-the-line republican stooge, and a lying sack of shit to boot. I predict Bowles defies conventional wisdom and wins it.

[Jackpine Radical]

16. Personally, I'm nervous about Feingold hanging on.

He's gotta be high on the Bushevik hit list, and never has much $$ to campaign with.

[mndemocrat_29]

23. Feingold should be safe

He's a national figure now (thanks to campaign finance) and Wisconsin loves having his clout. The toughest competitor (For. Gov. Tommy Thompson) has declined a run, so this should be a fairly safe Democratic seat.

[sybylla]

29. I'd like to think the same myself, but

he will certainly be targeted by the rnc. When you wrestle with pigs you're bound to get a little muddy. I just hope whatever happens will wash off of Russ like mudslinging off a progressive's back.

[mndemocrat_29]

17. My Comments

North Carolina-I'd put this at a tossup. Erskine Bowles was running against a superstar candidate with major crossover appeal in Elizabeth Dole. Richard Burr will have zilch crossover appeal and Erskine Bowles should make this very close. Tossup

South Carolina-Rep. Jim DeMint is not a great campaigner and Condon is even worse. Supt. Inez Tenenbaum is a spectacular candidate who can overcome a Republican sweep (2002). She should be able to pull this off, but South Carolina is a very Republican state, so this won't be easy. Barely Lean Democrat

Georgia-2002 was a terrible year for Democrats in Georgia. Sen. Miller's seat is probably our most endangered. Without a candidate, it's difficult to predict this race. However, Republicans currently have the edge. Michelle Nunn, daughter of For. Sen. Sam Nunn, would make an interesting and electible candidate. Lean Republican

Oklahoma-Kirk Humphreys is as dull as a post and Rep. Brad Carson is one of the best campaigners to enter the political fray in the last few years. Carson should be able to pull this off, and he'll have Gov. Henry to help him. The only thing that will help Humphreys is the Republican tilt of Oklahoma. Barely Lean Democrat

Alaska-Sen. Lisa "Nepotism" Murkowski is highly susceptible in 2004. Though Democrats typically wouldn't have a shot at this, Gov. Knowles has proven (twice) that he can win statewide. Additionally, he leads in current polls and should be able to defeat the incumbent.

Illinois-Democrats had one of their best years ever in Illinois in 2002 (they reelected Sen. Durbin and elected a Democratic governor). Republicans couldn't attract Fitzgerald, Edgar, or Topinka for this race. Though Democrats will have a tough primary, this is theirs to lose. With Bush's popularity plummeting, the Senate candidate should be able to ride the Democratic candidates coattails. Likely Democratic

[ShaneGR]

24. Alaska is ours... there are a few other states to look at.....

go to dscc.org and check out the polling on Tony Knowles.

And where is Illinois at? It's leaning Dem.

The other states to look at are Pennsylvania (Hoeffel vs. Specter) Kentucky (Incumbent with low favorability ratings) and Colorado (Nighthorse Campbell has had trouble raising money).

[mndemocrat_29]

31. Pennsylvania looks like a good shot

Toomey could beat Specter, and Toomey v. Hoeffel will leave a Democratic victory. However, I think that if Specter does win the primary, it will be a really close call, and he'll come out very battered. I think that Hoeffel should be able to pull this off.

Though Colorado trends Republican, I think that a strong 2004 campaign could push Campbell out of office. Hart is still well liked in Colorado (though he'll still have Donna Rice to deal with). Hart is a good campaigner (which Campbell is not).

Jonathan Miller should be taking on Jim Bunning. Bunning is a hot-headed archconservative (I believe he is the most conservative senator in the country) and is beatable.

(On note, if we're trending toward victory in Colorado and Kentucky, Missouri and Nancy Farmer could deal us another victory).

[CMT]

28. Don't forget Pennsylvania

Specter is vulnerable and can be defeated. Against generic democrat he is under 50%.

[srpantalonas]

36. Specter v Unknown: 46-41; Specter v Hoeffel: 51-33

[Yupster]

30. I'd add Pa and SD

I think Specter could go down, especially if he gets beaten up in the primary.

I think Daschle could also lose depending on how much Bush wins the state by. His mantra to eke Johnson through was that it was good for the state to have the majority leader. That will be a otougher sell this time.