Good News for Clark from the Latest NH Poll as shown on inside politics

[Bertrand]

Dean has 33% (i think it's pretty clear right now that NH is his to lose), Kerry is at 18%, but what is really interesting is they have Clark at 14%. If he were to come in second and if Gep were to win Iowa, that could negate the momentum of a Dean victory while Gep (pulled it out after being down for alot of the year) and Clark ("the guy comes in 5 months before the primary from a southern backround and beats Kerry in a neighbouring state)would recieve favourable press heading into Super Tuesday. This is the type of situation the Clark camp is praying for (although i think his camp would face very harsh criticism from the media if he finished any less than a top 3)


If anyone has a link to this (CNN.com/politics has a NH poll from oct 13-15 that has kerry at 19% and Clark at 7%) i would appreciate it.

[pruner]

1. here you go

Dean 33%
Kerry 19%
Clark 7%
Gephardt 4%
Edwards 4%
Lieberman 3%
Kucinich 1%
Modeley-Braun 0%
Shapton 0%

conducted Oct. 13-15

The poll of 600 Democrats and independents had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-10-21-dean-poll_x.htm

[Bertrand]

2. yeah, i quoted that one already

im referring to a link from the poll shown on Inside Politics today.

[pruner]

9. here's another poll

Dean 31%
Kerry 19%
Clark 12%

Trailing with single-digit support were Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun had less than 1 percent support.

Twenty-three percent of respondents were undecided about the Democratic primary.

The poll was done for the Concord Monitor by Research 2000, a Rockville, Md., company.

MOE ± 5

The new poll was conducted Oct. 16-Oct. 20 among residents who voted in the 2002 presidential election and who are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

http://www.projo.com/ap/ma/1066846550.htm

[Bertrand]

13. Thanks

i havent seen this one before. It's in the same ballpark as the CNN one i saw (i hope im not hallucinating:-) )

[WilliamPitt]

3. If Clark catches Kerry

and comes in second to Dean...well...that may be it for Big John. :(

[FrenchieCat]

4. Good for Clark!

He is planning to spend time there. When people get to know him, his numbers will rise. The right wing attacks and plans to confuse Democrats on who Wes is, is not working as well as they would like.

Karl Rove is currently in an undisclosed location trying to come up with more smears.

His latest------Gephardt being the one that the Repugs fear is not working.

[Wickerman]

7. People just aren't paying attention yet

Polls this far out a nearly meaningless. Iowa and NH may be the exceptions, but its still plenty more than a few weeks away and a week in politics is lifetime.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Yep. Deans could be in for a major letdown:

"We've seen so many times; New Hampshirites shift dramatically in the week before the vote," Sabato said. "Only a fool would close the book on New Hampshire before the polls shut down on primary day."

[Kahuna]

23. I was at his speech in NH today. It was a great speech! He..

spoke like someone who is serious about winning.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. The plus here is that when John K wins NH

there'll be quite a few very surprised people.

[reachout]

6. Another recent poll showing the same thing

http://www.primarymonitor.com/news/stories2003/102203_dem_poll_2003.shtml


***

Dean won the support of one-third of likely primary voters, a 15-point lead over Kerry, who was favored by 18 percent of those polled. Clark followed in third, with 14 percent. The remaining six candidates scored in the single digits. Eighteen percent of voters said they had not yet made up their minds.

The poll, conducted on Oct. 16-20 by Research 2000, questioned 400 New Hampshire Democratic and independent voters. The results echo those of other recent state polls, with Dean maintaining a comfortable double-digit lead over Kerry.

***

"Clark's got people's attention, but now (his campaign people) need to show that they can run a ground operation," she said. "He makes it a greater challenge for Dean and Kerry to keep it a two man race, which is in both of their interests. And he's also a huge obstacle for the second-tier candidates who want to break out."

Clark fared better than any other Democrat in head-to-head match-ups against Bush. Bush defeated Clark, 48 to 41 percent, when put before a group of 600 Republicans, Democrats and independent New Hampshire voters. Del Ali, president of Research 2000, said Bush's margin of victory against prospective Democratic opponents had slipped since earlier this year. He said Bush's success in New Hampshire was tied closely to voters' opinion of his handling of the economy. Recent signs that the nation's economic situation was improving could help Bush reverse that slide.

***

[tsipple]

10. Note These Polls Before Clark's Iowa Pullout

I still can't figure out why Clark pulled out of Iowa. He was doing pretty well, and now Edwards could conceivably slip into third place, which would be very bad for Clark.

Total speculation, but New Hampshire does pay attention to Iowa, and Iowa political news, so we'll see if that affects Clark at all.

[Adjoran]

11. If Kerry is to win NH

then he needs to do something soon. His numbers, raw and relative to Dean, have been steadily eroding there. If not in NH, where is Kerry going to win an early state to keep going? He has made little inroads in SC and AZ.

Clark and Gephardt have the edge in perception politics here. Clark started late with no state organizations, so his performance will be judged against that backdrop in the Iowa and NH contests. Gephardt is seen as struggling in the middle of the pack, so if he wins Iowa, he will be claiming the mantle of "Comeback Kid." Since his home state of Missouri also holds an early primary (Feb 3), he has a good chance to build momentum early without NH.

Dean can easily survive a 2nd in Iowa, but now needs to win NH to keep his frontrunner image intact. He doesn't have to blow out Kerry or Clark, but he does have to finish first. So many of the primaries closely following NH are in southern states that he needs to have momentum going in to hostile territory, but strong seconds in a few of these will keep it alive.

Meaning no disrespect to the candidates, but Edwards isn't getting much traction. He has to win SC, a task complicated by Clark's popularity there and the number of candidates on the ballot. Lieberman is in the same position, except his "firewall" is AZ.

The rest of the field seems unlikely to do more than play a spoiler role.

[pruner]

12. Lieberman's "firewall" is burning down

Dean 32%
Clark 24%
Lieberman 15%
Kerry 15%
Gephardt 8%
Sharpton 1%
Edwards 1%
Moseley-Braun 1%
Kucinich 0%

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/breaking/10_20_03az_dems.html

[Adjoran]

18. Hadn't seen that poll

but the numbers seem a bit suspect. According to the poll, 97% have already made up their minds, which seems highly unlikely. If the pollsters "pushed" for a preference, the results are more undependable than the advertised 4.3%.

I will agree that if Lieberman runs a poor second or third there, he is toast, and the disparity seems greater than would likely result from forcing responses.

[Adjoran]

19. Here is more on the BRC poll for AZ

The sample was 540 registered voters. Only "likely Democratic primary voters" were included in the preference question - which reduced the sample to only 205 people, with a projected MOE of 7.0%. Samples of this size are not usually considered reliable.

All the details are available in the PDF document on the BRC site:
http://www.brcpolls.com/03/RMP2003-IV-01.PDF

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. You are right. Expectations are growing for Dean to win NH outright

and if he doesn't win or at least stay close 2nd to Kerry, his campaign may be in for a rougher road than it expects.

[Adjoran]

16. I should add the recent polls in those states

Undecided voters will determine the winners in most of them.

AZ - Clark, Dean, and Lieberman bunched at the top, the rest in single digits. Clark is first with only 13%, so this is far from over.

SC - Edwards leads with 14%, Lieberman 13, Clark 12, Gephardt and Sharpton 10, Kerry 8, with a tough fight for the only 12% still undecided.

MO - Gephardt well ahead with 36% in his home state.

NM - Dean leads with 18%, Lieberman 14, Kerry 10, but this dates to Clark's entry in the race, so he may be doing better there now.

Can't find any polls for OK.

[tsipple]

20. Re: State by State Surveys

Actually, Dean is out in front according to the most recent poll in Arizona, and by a substantial margin at that.

In South Carolina, Dean is also in the pack. Five or six candidates there within the margin of error. Curiously, Edwards released one of his own polls that shows himself #1 with Dean in the #2 spot. That state is going to be a real contest. Even Sharpton is competitive.

In Missouri, Dean is running a strong second to Gephardt. That state's an interesting one for a couple reasons. One is if Gephardt isn't in the race by then, it's probably Dean's to lose. But the second reason is that Gephardt is a Congressman, and Missouri has this weird St. Louis versus everywhere else dynamic. Gephardt certainly should win this state, but ignore it at your peril.

The polls are very good for Dean right now, but polls can and do change. I don't put too much stock in them except to spot big trends. And, as the saying goes, the only real poll that counts is on election day.

[robsul82]

14. Agreed with Pitt...

...New Hampshire is Dean's to lose, but if Clark places second, Kerry's got some major issues.

Later.

RJS

[UnapologeticLiberal]

17. If Clark gets second in NH

Then that's it for Kerry. I am not even sure Kerry can stay in with any credibility if he does not get 1st there. 43% of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters get their media feed straight from Boston...it's his to lose.

[KittyWampus]

21. PLEASE, Could Someone Explain Why Kerry's Got To Get NH

Or at least come in 2nd?

I know he's from Mass. but still, there are so many other states after the first two///

Is it largely a matter of perception and momentum?

[WilliamPitt]

22. If Kerry can't come in at least second in his own back yard

that's his ass.

[sleipnir]

24. He's toast in Iowa....and slowly burning in S.C.

NH is is only hope for a good showing in the first few weeks.

[roguevalley]

25. I heard that Wesley would be glad to hit fourth. This is good news.

Great Gene Lyons interview at www.buzzflash.com on Clark.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

26. Maybe Dean should pull out of NH and Iowa to avoid letdown and

humilibarrassment.