My prediction of what will happen in Dem primaries

[jeter]

This is just speculation. But here goes.

Gepthardt wins Iowa and no where else. He talks about a bounce, but none comes. The only news out of Iowa will be that Dean lost it. That will hurt him in New Hampshire, where I actually think that Clark will shock everyone and win.

You see this will be the Democratic strategy in 2004 (at least among those who don't want Dean to win). Support Gepthardt in Iowa and throw all the money and resources into Clark in NH. Second prediction, Lieberman drops out before end of the year and throws support to Clark. Clark's numbers will increase to 30% nationally, by years end.

I see Dean losing NH. Either to Kerry or to Clark. If he loses to Kerry, then Kerry moves on. If he loses to Clark - both Kerry and Dean drop out.

I see Edwards dropping out too before the end of the year, unless his numbers pick up. Expect him to throw full weight behind Clark. At that point it's all over. Expect other liberals to support Clark. Expect Sharpton to support him, too.

Clark wins the Democratic nomination.

The only way Deans wins it is if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. Losing New Hampshire is not as big a deal for Clark as it is for Dean. Because Clark is from the south. Dean is from neighboring Vermont. A must win. And independants vote in NH. That's why these polls are meaningless.

Dean is a nimrod. He had my total support, but it's beginning to waver. He's looking more and more like Cruz Bustamante to me. Not because he's too liberal. But because he had all this mojo and decided to campaign at friggen colleges (where he already had support) instead of reaching out. He decided to run on his lead rather than expanding his base by going to black churches and union halls.

Expect the Democratic Party, the Clintons, the DLC, the Black Caucus, the Unions to all throw their weight behind Clark.

Clark will win the Democratic nomination.

I'm beginning to get used to this fact.

Don't come back with "Dean is leading in polls." Anyone who thinks polls matter at this point have never followed an election. Dean was dumb for ignoring the base. The sad thing is Dean could have gone all the way. But he was more interested in being a rock star than President. Too bad for him.

I haven't flipped yet officially (from Dean to Clark). But it's coming close. If Dean is so dumb that he would let this golden opportunity pass - then he is too dumb to beat Bush.

[Speck Tater]

1. Close, but no cigar.

Here's how it will actually go down. Dean wins Iowa. Dean wins NH. ... Dean wins nomination ... Dean wins the White House.

Other than that you were pretty close. ;)

[FrenchieCat]

3. Just don't bet your house on it....

The overall strategy is to beat Bush without taking a gamble.

The gamble is Dean....not Clark.

"IT'S YOUR ECONOMY AND YOUR WAR, STUPID!"
A REAL MILITARY HERO TELLS A GENUINE INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

[TLM]

11. Clark is a war criminal... he will not carry the base.

he has no record... other than ordering the bombing of journalists and civilians.

Oh yeah and goign to a republican fundraiser in 2001 and heaping praise on Bush and Reagan as ideal examples of leadership.

Then there is the little matter of Clark being a lobbyist for Henry Kissigner.

Isn't Kissinger wanted in france for war crimes?


Clark a war criminal, worked for Kissinger, another war criminal, and is running for president against Bush, another war criminal.

If Clark gets the nomination, I will not vote for him. I will not vote for someone who thinks it is Ok to bomb civilians and journalists.

[LibertyorDeath]

13. Well if you don't vote for Clark in this scenario you just voted for the 4

more years of hell with the idiot son at the helm.

For fu%$ sakes unless the Dem's nominate Satan get behind the nominee
or the USA as you know it is dead thats your choice in 04 this is not
some kind of pissing contest the Necons are playing for keeps here.

[wildwww2]

17. The Democrats can`t nominate Satan. GOP has him in Al Gore`s House.

I don`t trust Clark but I would vote for him over Bu$h. Dean has Clinton type speed built up. He should make it across the finish line unless Bu$h Inc. gets a plane crash gift from god which they always seem to receive.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[a_random_joel]

30. I would vote for Satan over Bush

At least he speaks better.

Oh yeah, and I don't believe in fairy tales.

[FlemingsGhost]

40. "...the USA, as you know it, is dead..."

Good riddance to it...

[wyldwolf]

22. There's more of your conspiratorial lies...

..unproven, unsourced...

NOT unusual for you, though... there is medication for that...

Talk about the base..

According to Ruy Teixeira, co-author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority," Clark's followers are right to suppose that their man's appeal is demographically broader than Dean's. In a post on the Emerging Democratic Majority blog, he analyzes an October Gallup poll to discern "The Demographics of Clarkism":

"While Clark receives more support than Dean among both men and women, his margin over Dean among women is just 3 points (16 percent to 13 percent), but an impressive 12 points among men (29 percent to 17 percent)," Teixeira points out. "He also beats Dean in every region of the country, but especially in the South (25 percent to 8 percent). Also intriguing is how well he does among low income voters (less than $20,000), clobbering Dean by 26 percent to 5 percent! In fact, Clark bests Dean in every income group up to $75,000. Above $75,000, Dean edges Clark, 26 percent to 25 percent."

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2003/10/23/clark/index.html

[unfrigginreal]

24. Let's see...

vote for Clark or for the guy he "tremendously admires"? Hmmm... :shrug:

[StephNW4Clark]

2. Thanks for the support and...

...I do hope you can support Clark for his positions and expertise in foreign policy and national security, and as his economic plan indicated - a real grasp and excellence on domestic issues as well -just as much as for the fact he can beat Bush.

I think Dean brought the issue of Iraq to the forefront and raised the issue of dissent in a compelling reasonable way so I think that's important to acknowledge. And I do like his campaign organization which has been very effective. I just think when America is fighting 2 wars - Afghanistan and the War on Terror, and Iraq - a President should have foreign policy experience. And working with NATO and hammering out Peace Accords catapults Clark above the rest of the field.

So thanks for your support, let us know what we can do to provide you with more information on Clark as I am sure you have researched Dean already (being a supporter).

[Loyal]

4. I think Kerry will win.

nt

[FlemingsGhost]

5. Bush will narrowly "defeat" anyone the Democrats nominate

So sure... Wesley Clark it is.

[w4rma]

6. ABC News: Dean to get major Union endorsement

…
House of labor:

From ABC News' Marc Ambinder and Gayle Tzemach:

ABC News has learned that senior leaders of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT) have told Democratic campaign officials they plan to endorse former Vermont Governor Howard Dean next Monday morning in Iowa. It is the first major union endorsement for Dean.

The IUPAT claims more than 140,000 "painters, drywall finishers, wallpaper hangers, glass workers" and more among its national membership. Union Political Director and General Vice President Sean McGarvey says the "extremely difficult" decision to endorse marks the end of a nearly 12-month long process of evaluation and discussion.

Union leadership made the unanimous decision during a Monday conference call evaluating the results of a questionnaire sent to 600 IUPAT members late this summer. Third quarter FEC numbers and candidate meetings also played a part in the union's endorsement.

The IUPAT maintained throughout the process it would follow the AFL-CIO's lead in endorsing a presidential contender. When the AFL declined to endorse a candidate last month, the union decided to continue to watch the race unfold and endorse once member poll results and late-year candidate money reports became available.

McGarvey stressed the high regard the union has for all the candidates competing, adding that union leadership was "surprised, very surprised" by the questionnaire's results. "But the candidate (the rank and file) has urged us to support has apparently tapped into something none of the other candidates has been able to tap into," he said, promising the union would "jump in with both feet" to mobilize its "black and gold army" on its candidate's behalf.
…
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

CMT says:
…
This is Dean's first major Union endorsement, but there is a good chance he will get an even bigger one next month when Service employees (SEIU) make their endorsement.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=65734

[TLM]

12. Watch this be ignored....

not the endorsement, but this post.


Dean is getting the unions... which were thought to be in the bag for Gephardt. And he is getting the unions because the rank and file members are supportign Dean.

THe people, US, we are moving this campaign from the bottom up. You know that a few members of the union went to a meetup, and 3 months later most of the members were probably showing up. The ground level learn who Dean is and how strong his record is on union support... and then they tell the Union to back this guy.

This is exactly why Dean is going to win.

[wyldwolf]

25. This won't get much play because it has been posted already...

We've all seen it.

[sleipnir]

7. Humm..not sure about your reasoning

Here's where I believe you might be wrong.

Dean, losing NH, won't happen, get used to it. I don't care what you say, but Dean is polling in the stratosphere for a primary poll, this early. I cannot discount these numbers no matter how hard I try. He would have to fuck up royaly to lose NH. Could happen, but I wouldn't even bet $2 on it.

Clark will have to do some serious catch-up in NH while still trying to campaign nationally and in SC, which he needs desperatly to blow away the media negativity. I think it will be good if Clark "places, or shows" (using horserace lingo) in NH.

Also, what's this about Sharpton throwing support behind Clark? I don't know where you got that thought, but I don't see it happening. Sharpton will support Kucinich (much more in line with his views), because, Kucinich will outlast Sharpton (who's critically short on money and will be lucky to last through December.) Kucinich will throw support behind Dean, the most logical step as he's closest to Dean in politics and anti-DLC. Which is another reason why Clark won't get Sharpton support, Sharpton is also anti-DLC.

Second scenario, Clark's decision to skip Iowa backfires and he's done for. It's happened to multiple candidates in the past, but the media likes to point out the, oh, two, candidates it worked for in the last 25 years. He done for if he fails to grab 2 or 3 in NH, which is possible, given Kerry/Dean strongholds and a fast gaining Edwards. Any candidate that doesn't place 1 or 2 in Iowa or NH will be written off by the media which is the death-kiss in todays political climate.

I strongly agree that Dean is shooting himself in the foot and he'd better get back to the passion and fire from the summer and expand his base. It's his election to lose...

No, this race is too close to call for sure, but I'll tell you this, it's coming down to Clark/Dean in the long stretch, given neither fucks up too much, which could happen.

[w4rma]

8. I think you meant to say

anti-DLC, instead of anti-DNC. Two different groups with two different purposes. I hope very few Democrats are anti-DNC.

[sleipnir]

9. Ah, yes, I'm not sure why I typed anti-DNC.....Freudian slip?...

Down with all committees!! Hummm....thanks for pointing that out, will attempt to edit....I guess it's my inner-freeper trying to escape! :evilgrin:

[w4rma]

10. lol!!

:hi:

[Ardee]

14. Two cents worth

I see no way for Dean to win a single southern state, nor do I see him polling better than Gephardt in Iowa. I doubt that he has the support, even the lukewarm support, of the powers within the democratic party and I believe that this behind the scenes effort to derail his candidacy will, eventually ,succeed........time will tell.

[Iverson]

15. the liberal Dems aren't even on your map?

That's too bad.

[CWebster]

16. A Clark nomination

will be the best thing that ever happened to the Green party.

Let it be known.

[JVS]

38. Nobody seems to be paying attention to that

I want Kucinich, but if it is close between Clark and anyone else in the primary, I got for that someone else.

[hang a left]

18. Are there any of them there puter voting machines in Iowa

or New Hampshire? If so count on the elites picking the candidates.

[elfin]

19. All will stay in due to possiblilty of brokered convention

Where their influence with delegates could either get them a VP slot, cabinet post or goodies for their main blocs (e. Sharpton)

[LWolf]

20. One possible scenario.

It depends on how many others, that you didn't mention, are in for Iowa and New Hampshire, and what sort of numbers they get.

I will say, though, that many other liberals will not support Clark. I'm one of them.

I won't support Clark or Dean in the primary.

[Beaker]

21. I'm a Liberal, and Clark is my guy.

Real Liberals won't vote for Howard Dean.

[LWolf]

23. I'm a "real" liberal, and

given a choice, I won't vote for either of them.

[Nazgul35]

26. i'm a liberal and i'm working...

my ass off for Dean....

gotta go now, have ten more letters to write to Iowa, than gotta start on my letters to NH....

[jeter]

27. Clark Will win

I don't see how he will lose.

When Lieberman, Edwards, Gepthardt, Kerry drop out - who will they support?

They will support Clark.

Who will support Dean?

Dean and Clark are tied in the polls today. And Dean has had a lot of attention. Clark has no where to go but up.

I know that head-to-head Dean can't beat Clark, that's why his supporters are calling Clark a "war criminal."

Definition of War Criminal to some people: "Any candidate that doesn't support Dean."

This is part of the reason why I am abandoning Dean. Because he can't seem to provide a clear vision for the future. So his supporters have sunk so low as to make personal attacks.

Fine, you support Dean. I did too, once. Does that mean that everyone else is evil? Jesus, you people sound like George W. Bush. I also don't like this idea of withholding your support. I would support Dean if he were the nominee. I would support Kerry if he were the nominee. I would support Gepthardt if he were the nominee. etc. etc. But many Dean supporters are behaving selfishly. "If my candidate doesn't win. Then i'll stay at home and let Bush be President again."

[unfrigginreal]

31. Another Clarkie spreading the love to Dean supporters...

you know the routine:

"you selfish MF'rs are backing a nimrod who can't win. Now stop bashing my candidate"

[sleipnir]

36. Um, still not sure about the "Drop Out Scenario"

I still don't think that Clark is going to get this massive wave of support from the "Drop Outs." It's also in the realm of possibility that Clark will drop out early in the race. Seriously, he's given up on Iowa, he won't get NH, the polls (I know you hate them, but, this time in NH they're impossible to ignore) show it's a Kerry/Dean done deal. SC probably will go to Edwards, who knows if Clark will even get second?

What I'm saying is that, this is entirely possible, Clark fails to get above third in IA, NH, SC, AZ and drops out (as ANY candidate would do in that situation.) I'm not a poltical savant, but to ignore the fact Clark won't be faced with his own Drop Out scenario early in the race is ludicris. It's possible he won't get 1 or 2 in any of the above mentioned four races and effectively end his campaign.

Really, though, it's all speculation and will be interesting fodder for the boards for a long time.

[Hep]

28. out of curiosity

Dean is a nimrod. He had my total support, but it's beginning to waver. He's looking more and more like Cruz Bustamante to me. Not because he's too liberal. But because he had all this mojo and decided to campaign at friggen colleges (where he already had support) instead of reaching out. He decided to run on his lead rather than expanding his base by going to black churches and union halls.

When you were supporting Dean, how many frigging union halls and black churches did YOU visit?

Or were you under the impression that he is supposed to do all the work and all YOU have to do is vote?

You thought maybe it was HOWARD powered Howard?

[Hep]

29. Also,

Dean won the first ever WELLSTONE award from the AFL-CIO.

[AlinPA]

32. This is interesting.

Right now I'm thinking Dean may do it; after reading this, I just may I save my next check until the winner is known? (First one went to Dean) We have great candidates. Just so they don't bash each other so bad that the rPIGs use it against our winner.

[WilliamPitt]

33. "Dean was dumb for ignoring the base"

:wtf:

Who is it you think is propelling his entire campaign?

[janekat]

41. IMO - the "base" are blacks and Progressives - they support Clark

Kuchinich, Sharpton, and Braun. It's the Yuppies and "bandwagonners" who are supporting Dean.

[Hep]

45. Speak for yourself

And please refrain from making comments as if you know me.

I love how people OUTSIDE the campaign try to define those INSIDE as if they took the time to learn anything about us. That's just poor taste.

[sleestak]

34. Couldn't bring myself to vote for Clark

There's something dishonest about the guy...

[xultar]

37. OK, what is it that you find dishonest?

[Yupster]

35. I'll take a shot

This really is going to be a fun primary season.

Gephardt narrowly wins Iowa with Dean finishing second.

Mosley-Braun drops out if she hasn't already.

Gephardt gets good press and momentum and finishes a surprising third in N Hampshire, almost beating Kerry for second. Dean wins comfortably.

Kerry drops out just before the S Carolina primary when his polls show him at 4 % there.

Edwards and Lieberman each make their stand in S Carolina. As usual, the strategy of making a stand there doesn't work, and Dean wins comfortably buoyed by his good press from Iowa and N Hampshire. Al Sharpton comes out of no where to finish second.

Edwards drops out. Lieberman decides to make a stand in the big states as an anyone but Dean candidate so he stays in.

By now, there's talk of teaming up to beat Dean, but as always, that effort never works, and Dean sweeps through to victory.

Clark was never a factor. Gephardt disappeared after N Hampshire from the leader boards, and Lieberman emerges as the "Moderate voice" of the Democratic Party. He gets that label and about four delegates.

Sharpton and Lieberman stay in till the end but are never a factor.

Just my predictions. Just for fun.

[poskonig]

39. If Gephardt wins Iowa, he goes all the way.

That includes Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt will not drop out before Feb 3rd. I also have no idea how the Clark campaign is going to get in this.

If Gephardt wins Iowa, I see him winning Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Michigan, and doing well in NH and South Carolina. He'll be very difficult to beat if this happens. Dean has the organization to get at least New Mexico and Arizona if this occurs, but Kerry would not.

Dean is trouble if he loses NH AND Iowa. Getting the free 50-100 million in airtime is an integral part of his strategy, and getting none of it will make it harder to compete with Gephardt and especially Kerry on February 3rd, assuming Kerry is the winner of NH.

Clark will not win NH or Iowa. He either has to 1) try to cherry-pick one or two states on February 3rd like Edwards OR 2) hoard cash and wait until a front runner emerges, and begin to campaign in mid-February. Either strategy is very risky.

[Clete]

42. IMHO if either Lieberman or Clark wins that means

the DNC is still trying to get those centrist votes from Bush, who will actually vote for Bush anyway. Half of the registered Democrats won't show up at the polls, who would have for Dean or Kucinich, because they don't like either of the above and they think Bush will win anyway.

[tritsofme]

43. Even if Dean

doesnt win Iowa or NH he'll stay in to the bitter end.

Hasnt he said that he intends to bring his delegates to the convention regardless?

[Hep]

44. Oh yeah

And things could get very funky at the convention.

[paulk]

46. None of the major candidates will drop out before super tuesday

Iowa and New Hampshire won't decide shit.

[Rooktoven]

47. How's this?

Gephardt wins Iowa, but that transfers into nothing. Dean wins New Hampshire, Edwards wins South Carolina, and the rest of the Feb 3rd states are split somewhat evenly.

Braun drops out, Clark wins no more than one token state, Lieberman wins only Delaware, and there is no clear front runner by Super Tuesday, though Dean has a lead in delegates. Kerry maintains a slight second place lead over Edwards.

The race turns into a 3 person race between Dean, Kerry and Edwards. Kucinich and Sharpton stay in til the end but amass no real quantities of delegates. Gephardt, Clark and Lieberman drop out after Super Tuesday but do not release _their_ delegates.

No candidate is near a majority come the convention, and then the delegates have to decide. Those out of the running back the candidate who is both closest to their views and has personally attacked them the least.

On the third ballot, John Edwards receives the Democratic party nomination. The resulting extraordinary press coverage lead to a nationwide embrace of Edwards, and the Edwards/Dean ticket beats a scandal-wrapped Bush Cheney ticket by over 100 electoral votes.

[carpetbagger]

48. Most important primaries: Tennessee, Michigan, Illinois.

Whoever takes two of these wins.

[kaitykaity]

49. Rules for Posting in GD

Please be aware for future reference that it is against the "Rules to start discussion threads in the General Discussion forum" to state in the first post of a GD thread that "Dean is a nimrod". Please see rule #4 here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=463744

4. If you wish to start a vanity thread (ie: a discussion thread in which the sole purpose is to share your personal opinion) you must state your opinion in a non-inflammatory manner which respects differences in opinion and facilitates actual discussion.

Because this is an active thread, the moderators have chosen not to lock it at this time.

Thanks,


kaitykaity
DU Moderator