http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EJ24Ak03.htmlNot a pretty picture: The future of Iraq
<snip>Even Turkey - whose vote was purchased by the US government by offering US$8.5 billion worth of credit - is having second thoughts about sending the up to 10,000 troops it had promised. The Iraqis have already shown their anger toward the impending participation of their neighbor. That was just another reminder that memories in the Middle East tend to be very long. Memories of the Ottoman rule over Iraq have not exactly faded away, or been forgotten. The latent aspect of those memories is the Shi'ite factor. The memories of the Safavid-Ottoman rivalries of the previous era might also be resuscitated among the Shi'ites if Turkey enters the fray in Iraq. I purposely use the phrase "fray", because it is perceived precisely along these lines inside Iraq.
For a large number of Iraqis there is no such thing as peacekeeping in their country. As they see it, foreign troops enter only to prolong the US occupation. No country knows this reality better than Pakistan. Pakistani ambassador to the UN, Munir Akram, made that point quite explicitly and cogently on the Jim Lehrer News Hour immediately after the passage of the UN resolution. He said his country, despite the fact that it voted for the passage of that resolution, would not send troops to Iraq because the Iraqis would see them as part of the occupation force.
With the passage of time, the US occupation of Iraq is becoming so cumbersome that no one is certain which part of it will blow up and how big an explosion that would be. The US Congress debated fervently about how much, if any, of the $87 billion should be given to Iraq as loan. Now the bill is awaiting a compromise from both chambers. At the same time, the criticism from the Democratic presidential contenders of President George W Bush's continued involvement in Iraq has remained quite harsh. Consequently, Iraq promises to be a major issue of the upcoming presidential election. Even after the passage of Resolution 1483, there is no enthusiastic support among a number of major European allies for the continued US presence in Iraq. Even though Bush attempted to press his agenda of war on terrorism in the last Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Thailand, there is no report of a large contingent of peacekeeping troops departing from that region to Iraq.
In the meantime, the frustration level of the current administration is mounting, in that the US media are not focusing on the "good news" stories from Iraq. Even looking at Iraq from the side of the US government, the picture does not look rosy. Yes, there are a few bright spots; however, with the passage of each day, the US looks like the old Sisyphus: it is trying to rebuild Iraq, but the resistance forces and transnational terrorists - through their actions of murder, sabotage and mayhem - are making sure that Iraq does not become a stable place. That is the most bitter lesson for the US. An occupying force is an occupying force, no matter how hard it attempts to project itself as a "liberator". For the enemies of America in Iraq, they must try equally hard to make sure that the occupying force fails, and fails miserably. That is the only way they would win. Unfortunately for the Iraqis, their plight is not much better today than when they were living under Saddam Hussein.
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