Stocks to fall? Market prophet is battening the hatches

[Karmadillo]

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62345.asp

Rumors of the imminent death of the 2003 stock-market rally have been greatly exaggerated time and again in recent months. But according to one analyst with an enviable track record, the end days are finally here, and it’s time to prepare for a sickening plunge into December and beyond.

The doomsayer is Michael Belkin, one of the few investment analysts who has emerged from the recent boom, bust and re-boom markets with his reputation not just intact, but aglow.

Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near Seattle -- about as far from Wall Street as you can possibly get and stay in the continental United States -- Belkin writes a $36,000-per-year weekly report on equities, bonds and commodities for leading mutual-, pension- and hedge-fund managers worldwide. The report rises above the straitjacket of specialization to treat the global landscape holistically as an interlocking economic, political and social system.

Two weeks ago, Belkin abandoned his yearlong (and initially very lonely) bullish posture and put on the fur. He expects the broad market indexes to sink significantly through the end of the year, led by cyclical industrial stocks, and does not see much of a recovery on the horizon for 2004.

Why take him seriously? He has caught the last few major swings exactly right.

lots more...

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. hmmm I am starting to smell

1929 all over again.

[Brucey]

2. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a downturn in the months

ahead, however, I will be investing before next summer because I am certain that Bush* will convince his rich friends to artificially drive up the market before the election (they'll get plenty back if he's re-selected). Then sell in November. You heard it here.

[tom_paine]

4. You are right, Brucey

They Busheviks will continue to print and pump money intothe market to keep the bullshit going. They will use the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to keep it artificially floated.

But after the Stalinist Farce of 2004 (complete with October Surprise...will it be the corpse of Raygun? a dirty bomb for Massachussetts--Kallie-fornia is now off the Bushevik short list now that it's Bushevik-controlled) I would evacuate my $$$ because the house of cards is coming down.

[TacticalPeek]

3. Surely Kudlow and Kramer can boost our way out of this.

Got puff?

:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

5. Here's a post from a "Market Timer Astologer." Please...No Flames.I don't

want to hear it.

Politically, this can be a time of great embarrassment, as
statements may be made that are later deemed to be
untrue. And such statements may strain the trust that
certain people (especially leaders) have placed in one
another, The result could be a sense of great betrayal. The
fact that this transiting Saturn falls on the charts of both
the United States and George W. Bush should not be
overlooked. Perhaps it would be wise for Mr. Bush—and
those who speak for him—to maintain a relatively low profile
for the next two weeks. With the heavy planetary influence
combining principles of oil and government, perhaps there
are further revelations about the awarding of huge financial
contracts in Iraq to oil-related companies that have past
ties to the White House.

These themes are emphasized again as the Sun and
Mercury leave the peaceful, cooperative sign of Libra, and
enter the realm of the secretive Scorpio. Scorpio loves
nothing more than to reveal something that is hidden. It
wants everything out in the open regarding others, yet
reveals nothing of itself to balance the equation. It is part
of a quest for power, and usually this dynamic has a
correlate impact upon financial markets, like currencies and
Treasury Bonds (debt instruments).

In the past week we saw many stock markets of the world
reach new yearly highs, including the Untied States,
Australia, England (FTSE) and Hong Kong. Japan is now
testing its yearly high, while Germany, Switzerland, and the
Netherlands are still well below the highs posted in the first
week of September during the previous big geocosmic time
band mentioned earlier. This type of intermarket divergence
is a sign that a significant decline could be readying. So,
too, is the technical picture involving weekly stochastics,
which are not as high as they were at the September tops,
a condition known as bearish oscillator divergence. And
Monday, October 20 will begin the 55th week since the
4-year cycle trough of October 10, 2002 in the U.S. stock
market. Fibonacci traders will quickly recognize the
significance of 55. And subscribers to our financial
newsletters will also remember that only 4 of the 75
instances of 50-week cycles since 1928 have seen the
crest of this cycle occur later than the 55th week.
Interestingly enough, the last cycle to make highs in the
55th week occurred in 1997, just before the currency crisis
hit the Pacific Rim and shocked the world monetary system.

Get ready. We are about to enter another very interesting
geocosmic time band. Unexpected events are about to
unfold in the next 5-6 weeks, and the psychology of the
world is about to shift once again. In fact, it has already
started.
http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

Edited to use html code.

[Mari333]

6. all my retirement funds are in bonds and stocks

so far even..Im thinking of moving, selling the land and house, worth 300,000 on the market that doesnt mean Ill get it, and own a house in Indiana I will sell when my mother dies..
In the meantime, I have my monies with a stockbroker who is a good guy..so far tho, things look bleak.
I have no SS but widows benefits to look forward to, and we all know whats going to happen to SS when Im 65..
Maybe its time to sell my house and land and downsize .

[KoKo]

7. Mari.....don't go too soon........it's a dilemna many of us face....but

my worry is that by "cashing out to soon" it's what they want us to do......

But, you gotta do what feels right for you.

I personally don't see giving up everything I've worked for to go into a "motel six rent" so I can "hide out" until Bush is over with while Ken Lay lives "high on the hog," still.

Bush has to keep some of us "afloat" while he dismantles the rest. But who and which group he will keep "floating" is the question........

So.....who knows :shrug: I'm just not ready to CAVE IN, yet! But, I'm watchful and winding down....my expectations.

[maggrwaggr]

8. well sell the stocks at least, move them into bonds or something

I don't understand why people put on this helpless facade about their stock portfolio.

Sell it! If it's a 401K or whatever, call them up and have everything that's in equities moved into bonds or money markets.

[KoKo]

9. Wow! "maggrwaggr" wish all of us were as "on top of it all" as you are!

Great News for You! But, what about the rest of America?

BTW: On Edit, I understand what you are saying....just trying to say that so many Americans believe what they are told. But, yes.....I did what you say......I still think that many people "Dems" included didn't understand how bad it could be if one was a long term believer and not a "day trader." Day Trading is the stuff of CNBC/Bloomberg and the mags, today. It's under the surface....but that's the only way to make money.

The rest of us aren't getting any guidance. Some of us understand......but what about the rest? Who Believe?

Those who don't like Bush but don't get what he's "truly about?"

[the_real_38]

10. Whoa!

batten the hatches - I like the quote that Bush "rented the recovery from Wal-Mart" with the tax cut. Looks like the housing market may be seeing a tank-a-rama, man.