http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/24/opinion/24KRUG.htmlToo Low a Bar By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: October 24, 2003
John Snow, the Treasury secretary, told The Times of London on Monday that he expected the U.S. economy to add two million jobs before the next election — that is, almost 200,000 per month. His forecast was higher than those of most independent analysts; nothing in the data suggests that jobs are being created at that rate. (New claims for unemployment insurance are running at slightly less than 400,000 a week, the number that corresponds to zero job growth. If jobs were being created as rapidly as Mr. Snow forecasts, the new claims number would be closer to 300,000.)
Still, Mr. Snow may get lucky, and the job market may pick up. But his prediction was a huge climb-down from administration predictions earlier this year, when the White House insisted that it expected the economy to add more than five million jobs by next November.
And even if Mr. Snow's forecast comes true, that won't vindicate the administration's economic policy. In fact, while private analysts are criticizing Mr. Snow for being overly optimistic, I think the stronger criticism is that he's trying to lower the bar: to define as success a performance that, even if it materializes, should really be considered a dismal failure.
Bear in mind that the payroll employment figure right now is down 2.6 million compared with what it was when George W. Bush took office. So Mr. Snow is predicting that his boss will be the first occupant of the White House since Herbert Hoover to end a term with fewer jobs available than when he started. This is what he calls success? <snip>
As to "1) the economy is hung over from the excesses of the Clinton years.
2) all of the profits of the 90s were paper profits and not real
3) talk about the decade of greed, it was really the 90s and not the 80s.
4) the job losses are also the result of the excesses of the Clinton years." ----
WHAT EXCESSES? - the dot.com bubble was a blip on the over all economy - take it out - all of it - and it is still the greates econ growth over 8 years in history.
It is a bit like saying Bush's foriegn policy disasters have been cause by a blow job and the lack of respect it cause around the world - only there is proof that it caused NO LACK OF RESPECT AROUND THE WORLD.
The GOP now lies all the time - bullet points may do you no good in your arguement with someone who chooses to not think and find out facts for themselves - like someone in the US Media.