JUST IN: Zogby Poll --> DEAN 40% in NH!

[Closer]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750

Dean -> 40%
Kerry -> 17%
Edwards -> 6%
Clark -> 6%

[gully]

1. Wow!

:toast:

[Bertha Venation]

3. Yeah. Wow.

Dig it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. So it's Dean's to lose

good luck.

[Padraig18]

4. Rawkin!

You GO, Howard! :thumbsup::yourock::toast::party:

[gWbush is Mabus]

5. push polling really works!!!

[Closer]

6. HAHAHA

How are 'dem grapes?

I love it!

[wtmusic]

48. Yeah! Those three people made all the difference!

[LuminousX]

69. Nice unverified attack. Prove it and you will have a point. (nt)

[TLM]

99. Nope, but 10,000 letters from Dean's meetups do.

[IndianaGreen]

155. Do you have a link to a story that substantiates your allegation

or are you blowing hot air out of your ass?

[Demobrat]

7. NO!

Can this be real? Or did I have too many birthday drinks last night?

[Ripley]

8. Maybe those stupid letters we wrote worked!

I felt silly writing a letter to someone I don't know, but I was honest with a description of myself and why I liked him.

Great news!

:bounce:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

13. Hey, read this from the Blog this morning:

(from this morning's blog comments):

(excerpted):
I received two letters last summer. At the time of receiving the first letter I was not really much of a Dean supporter although I was impressed by him. I did not respond to that letter writer.

Soon after my second letter arrived. I became very charged about the campaign after I read her letter. And likewise became very involved.

Make no mistabke those two letters have had a profound impact on not only my decision to support Dean; but on the extent of my involvement. I have had one houseparty already and have another on the calender. (check out house party 100 - Clear Lake, Iowa). I have seen Dean speak twice. I have contributed $ well in excess of the average. I have signed up no less then 20 others. I have painted window signs in the local headquarters. I have contributed furniture to the local headquarters. I have canvased and hosted out of staters visiting here to canvas.

All of this because my enthusiasm became so charged after receiving a couple of letters written from two different women at meet-ups in California.

So one of you good people out there who has written a letter to this Iowan has really had an impact on the campaign here in Iowa. There's lots more people like me to be reached in Iowa.....keep writing those letters!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Darrell in Iowa at October 24, 2003 10:17 AM

[Ripley]

18. Not me!

I'm in the south not California, but that is a great story...thanks!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

22. Keep writing those letters

When I first started doing it, I thought it was a bit of a long shot to have an impact, but fun anyway. Obviously I realize that the Gov. is campaigning like crazy in IA and NH and that's why he's doing so well, but I am starting to believe that these letters do make a difference. Consider how many people this guy Darrell must have reached so far with his active participation, and he was brought in because of a letter.

[Atlant]

58. I assure you that those letters help.

We received one, and while it was too late for us (as we were
already firmly onboard the Dean Machine), we've also spoken
to other people who were positively swayed by those letters.

Please keep up the good work!

Atlant

[Woodstock]

100. I said he was "a good man" in mine

it sums it up pretty well

[artr2]

9. No wonder the anti-Dean threads are getting thicker

The others are going down in flames and Dean is laping the field. Dean has a winning message and the drive to overcome the shitstorm of charges of "fellow"democrats and the shit tornado the Carl & the press whore have waiting for the Democratic nominee

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. 57% want 'another Clinton'

"More than half (57%) feel the Democrats should nominate someone with a political ideology closer to that of former president Clinton."

Well, then 40% are convinced they have found their man then. However, someone should remind them that it's 2004 and not 1992.

One note: Dean has a 77% favorable rating compared to Kerry's 66- I wouldn't bank on that holding. Especially since he has officially gone negative.

[La_Serpiente]

11. We just wrote a couple thousand letters to people in New Hampshire

It would behoove the Kerry campaign to do the same.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

17. What's really scary for the other candidates

is that those letters probably haven't arrived yet, and any impact they may have on undecided voters is not yet reflected in polls numbers.

[Closer]

16. haha

How about you get out of our thread and spread your bitterness in a Kerry thread?

But I AM getting a KICK out of your posts. You've made me laugh with both of them.

[CMT]

21. going negative

to respond to the negative campaigning by Gep and Kerry distorting his record on Medicare.

[Rose Siding]

26. I wouldn't worry about the favorability rating

No one wants to see a Dem just take it anymore.

from yesterday's Political Notebook in the SF Chron:
snip>
Kerry and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt have criticized Dean on almost a daily basis to counter the front-runner's momentum. Most polls show Dean and Gephardt bunched atop the field of contenders for Iowa's Jan. 19 caucuses, with Kerry generally in third place.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/10/22/national1753EDT0751.DTL

Here's a list of a few dozen "unofficial?" instances of negativism, sourced and dated:

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001964.html#more

[artr2]

Really, have you seen the ads?

I saw both ad's on Deantv last night and I have been involved in politics for over 30 years now and I didn't see any negativity. He didn't mention any other candiditate by name and was pointing out his position.
I guess when you man is sinking in the polls anything said by the other candidate(s) is negative.

[tsipple]

46. Spin, Spin, Spin

You must be referring to Dean's new pair of TV ads in which he refers to "my opponents."

Oh, wow. That sure is negative. Talking about your unnamed "opponents." Mind you don't spill the tea.

:-) :-) :-)

[HFishbine]

70. Ah that explains it

I wondered why the best thing that the Kerry campaign's could say about their internal poll announced yesterday was that Kerry had the best favorable to unfavorable ratio. They didn't publish anything else which left me wondering who had the highest favorabolity rating overall. Now I see why the information they released was so limited.

[tsipple]

103. Re: Favorability Ratings

I don't think even that's true (re: highest favorability ratings for Kerry). That seems to be Dean's mark, not Kerry's.

As an aside, I think the world of John Kerry. This news must totally suck for him. If I were in his shoes I would probably try to really focus on my positive vision for the country, and I'd try to make policy news. There's really nothing to lose now, so one thing he could try is to come out loudly and forcefully for lifting all sanctions against Cuba.

[HFishbine]

111. Please

I didn't say Kerry had the highest favorability ratings. I said that his campaign reported (no way to verify) that he (Kerry) had the highest FAVORABLE to UNFAVORABLE RATIO.

[tsipple]

118. Yeah, and...

...that doesn't seem to be true, either (highest favorable to unfavorable ratio). Dean's ratio is 7 to 1, and Kerry's is just a shade over 2.5 to 1, according to these latest Zogby numbers.

Sharpton has the lowest ratio in this poll, by the way. It's below 0.25 to 1.

[HFishbine]

121. Thanks

Well, that's illuminating -- appreciate it. I was referencing a Kerry campaign internal poll that was reported on their site yesterday. They didn't provide access to any data, only touted the favorable to unfavorable ratio. I guess their polster is in disagreement with Zogby.

[tsipple]

123. No Prob

By the way, what do you think of my idea on the Cuba issue? My basic point is that this is no time for Senator Kerry -- or any other candidate -- to play it safely. So why not come out with a splash against the Cuba travel ban? Maybe even go to Cuba preemptively.

I don't know. I'm just thinking aloud of something he could do to shake things up dramatically. It's the one thing I can think of. It'd be even more effective if he could get a Republican Senator to tag team with him, 50-50. Like maybe McCain if he's willing.

[HFishbine]

130. Thanks for asking

But I'm not sure I'm the most informed person on that issue. Maybe in a way, that makes me a good person to ask.

I think the majority of people probably don't see it as much of an issue. My guees would be that the pundits would recognize it as significant but middle America would yawn. "Who wants to go to Cuba anyway."

On the other hand, 60 minuts on Wednesday described Dean as "diametrically opposed to Bush" and it struck me that that's exactly why I'm drawn to him. I think anything Kerry can do at this point to differentiate himself from Bush would be a plus -- as long as he doesn't go so far as to fake it, or seem to be sacrificing his own principles.

There you go, I owe you 98 cents.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

140. Wow!

NewYorkerfromMass has posted something critical of Dean! Mark the calendar!

[Eloriel]

12. Eve Bigger -- look at this

From the blog:
http://www.blogforamerica.com/

Pollster John Zogby: “This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?”

Jaw-dropping. Simply jaw-dropping.

Eloriel

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. Amazing!

Best news so far!

[CMT]

23. and yet we will still hear

how Dean can't win among Independents, has no blue collar support and so on.

[Le Taz Hot]

62. Oh, well, yeah, but we all know

he's peaked. ;-) :hi:

[Woodstock]

101. and it's just young white college men who support him

:)

[tsipple]

124. No, only white college students who use the Internet...

...Nobody else supports Howard Dean. :evilgrin:

[Atlant]

63. We're all working very hard to ensure that he can't be stopped. :-)

> "This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?”

We're all working very hard to ensure that he can't be stopped. While
a whole lot of the NH Dean Team is going to be "busy" on Saturday (Jan
and I sure are), we're all going to be back in-state on Sunday holding
a series of "Regional Organizing Conventions" to take things up to an
even higher level.

The pedal on the Dean Machine is firmly pressed against the floor-boards
and NOBODY here in NH is letting up for even an instant!

Atlant

[tsipple]

122. Well Put

You should really ignore the polls, because they can and do change, and it's still some time before the New Hampshire Primary.

Sure, it's good news, and that's always nice, but let's reserve our celebration for when a Democrat beats Bush in November, 2004. There's a lot of work to be done, and Democrats can't let up for an instant.

[Ripley]

14. Man, some people really need to get a life.

Instead of spending all of their time trolling for positive Dean threads to hit with their jackhammering jabbering jaws.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

27. And some people need to get a grip

come back to us in January with these numbers. I'm glad Dean is generating so much enthusiasm, really, I am. But I do hope when people come to their senses they'll see Kerry's our best shot.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

33. Just pointing out the emotions of the moment.

and I see plenty right there in your response.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sfecap]

61. Yes, they do...

Folks like you who have been telling us for months that Kerry will win.

Come to your senses. Kerry is geting his ass kicked.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

66. If you think Dean is going to win40%

then either you are fantasizing or you have the secret to mind control.

[AWD]

86. Kerry will win....

...as soon as he figures out how to portray Dean's message without the rest of the country noticing.

[PassingFair]

147. Hold on, NewYorker!

You ain't seen nothin yet! We're taking the next step, from meet-ups to rallies! The populist movement is just beginning. When he visits your area, go out and check out the scene....
He'll be holding a rally in Detroit this weekend, and we've got CARLOADS of family, friends and neighbors headed downtown.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

149. Good. I'll be there to persuade them to vote otherwise. nt

[PassingFair]

153. Come on over!

I'll bring some hot chocolate for you! I met Dean last weekend at a fundraiser. He thanked everyone for their donations, but his main request was that we keep talking and talking and talking. So I'm walking, and talking and typing and hyping. I think that Kerry is a good guy. He can still do lots of good in the senate and beyond, but Dean has the momentum and the style and the heart to take us over the ramparts.

[Bandit]

15. Oh my God ~ Screech ~Wail ~Nashing of Teeth

We are lost. The world is gunna end. Nobody likes Dean so he will be another Goldwater emm I mean Mondale. Yeh that's the ticket he will be another Mondale because the GOP tells us that is so. Nobody in their right mind will vote for someone who doesn't want the US to start an illegal war. Wail ~ Screech ~ Oh the Horror of it.

[CMT]

20. Excellent

I can't explain why it is such a lead though. My gut tells me that Dean will not win such a smashing victory. I just don't believe Kerry would lose the state by such a crushing margin. While it is good news for us Deannies we can't allow ourselves to let up even an inch.

[Ripley]

24. Outsider status.

That's what I think. I agree Kerry will catch up, but not enough.

[Hep]

28. I know why

Because well meaning liberals are smart enough to realize that even though he's not the most liberal on out there, he has a proven record of getting shit DONE. We're tired of talking about health care. We're tired of trying to pass the kind of reform that the Clinton administration tried to pass- The Kind That Fails. We want to stop talking about it and DO IT. And we found someone who has succeeded at SOME level. Someone who has a plan.

Most of all we found someone who inspires us to go out and talk to our neighbors about it, to take over our party from the ground up, and to reach people who think they don't matter.

[unfrigginreal]

54. You said a mouthful there

Deannies we can't allow ourselves to let up even an inch

As a matter of fact, now is the time to turn it up a notch...go for the knock out punch.

[Atlant]

65. See my post #63, above.

Here in NH, we're definitely working to turn the dial up to "11".

(And when we accomplish that, why we'll go for "12"!)

Atlant

[jsw_81]

25. That's incredible

It looks like Dean's going to win the nomination by a mile.

[unfrigginreal]

30. Excellent!

And check out the Favorables for Dean and Kerry. It looks like Kerry may have been spouting off a few too many attacks.

Fav/Unfav/Unfam

77-11-10 Dean
66-26-7 Kerry

[RevolutionStartsNow]

32. Those favorables for Dean

are oustanding.

And I think the low unfamiliars for both tells us that this is about wrapped up. Of course the race will likely get tighter as it gets closer, but it sounds like a lot of people have made up their minds.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

34. How many of those people know about the governor's sealed records?

Did you include that in your letters?

[CMT]

36. every governor has sealed records

I don't think it is that big an issue.

[Bandit]

37. How many governors DON'T seal their records?

:shrug: You make it sound like it is not common practice.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

39. But, but.... I thought Howard was "different" from other politicians

guess not. :shrug:

[Hep]

44. Sadder and sadder

every day! I guess he's not that different, he WEARS PANTS!

This is what you're reduced to?

[Orangepeel]

76. LOL

My first DU guffaw of the day

:D

[Padraig18]

49. He didn't sign bills in crayon, either.

Does that concession to SOP make him unclean, too? :eyes:

[LuminousX]

71. No one said he wasn't a politician

Just because you choose to infer that Dean supporters are giving Dean supranormal abilities doesn't mean they actually believe it nor does it mean he actually does.

Dean is a politician, and by the fact he negotiated to seal his records for longer than normal, means he is a smart politician. If there were a real scandal in Vermont ready to break, we'd already have a hint of it, in fact we might. He might have a scandal regarding the power plant sale. But I'm sure the Kerry-Gephardt opposition research team (K-GORT for short) would have been able to dig up all the public hearing stuff on that.

Nope, the only thing we are really being denied here is Dean's email to a friend where he calls Bush a mite-brained f***ing a**hole.

[Hep]

43. You mean interesting facts like

He's by no means the first to do it and well within his rights?

Come on, Don.

[wtmusic]

52. We're grasping at straws, folks

You decide: sealed records vs. that damn war vote.

[Nazgul35]

152. Perhaps the reason you are not taken seriously

by the Dean supporters on this argument is that you know full well that what the Governor protected was private memos and letters from private citizens, much of which were letters written by homosexual and lesbian citizens asking the governor to support the civil unions legislation....and we should never be concerned that the repugs would get ahold of the data and create a web page called "fag watch" or something more vulgar and list the names pulled from these letters in the name of the first amendment....cause we can trust the repugs to do the right thing...yes, no?

But that doesn't fit into the cheap attack and innuendo you wish to perpatrate on fellow DUers....very Rovian...

Has the Senator released his private letters while he served in the Senate? Yes, No? or does only Dean have to do that?

[VermontDem2004]

35. Didn't someone on here said Zogby was very innacurate

maybe I am hallucinating, but either way this is good news for the Dean Camp.

[Ripley]

38. I think it's Gallup that is the inaccurate polster.

You know, the guys who supposedly found all that good news in Baghdad?

[paulk]

40. I think you should note that the poll referenced in this article

was taken on Oct. 3rd, three weeks ago. More recent polls show the race tightening up.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. But it says all calls made October 21-23 at the top

"All calls were made from Zogby International’s headquarters in Utica, NY from October 21-23, 2003." WTF?

[unfrigginreal]

42. Bzzzt...Wrong

All calls were made from Zogby International’s headquarters in Utica, NY from October 21-23, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

47. but every table heading uses the 3rd of the month (this Oct.)

'splain that. or maybe Zogby should.

[w4rma]

51. That's '03, as in 2003. (n/t)

[paulk]

56. you're right, it means 2003

I misread it the first time.

This is pretty significant, Dean really seems to be pulling ahead in New Hampshire.

[Sideways]

73. NYFM Is Having Trouble Because The Yankees Got Their Ass Handed to Them

Hard to do the math when the "best bought" team in MLB is losing to the Marlins.

Equally hard when the "hairdo" is having trouble as well.

I guess strong statistics and realizing defeat are out of NYFM's ken.

Pity.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

75. As a life long Red Sox fan I can assure you that assumption is wrong

and I wasn't aware the NH primary was schedule for next week or even next month? :shrug:

[AWD]

87. You should try the ignore button

...it makes life SO much easier to not read NYFM's sppin on how Dean's 40% is actually 9% and Kerry is God.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

115. good luck getting elected with that attitude

you should learn how to listen to your costituents, even the ones you disagree with.

[Chryslin]

129. I've looked

Sorry, but I can't seem to find New York OR Massachusetts within the 16th District of Ohio.

Therefore, you are NOT one of his constituents.

You sit back and keep complaining. Meanwhile, there are brave people like Jeff actually trying to DO something. When you have an OUNCE of the courage he has to run for office and put it all on the line, then you come calling.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

143. You know, I may very well have friends and relatives in Ohio....

but regardless, I'd love to know how not listening to people demonstrates courage.

[Woodstock]

102. the best team money can buy

and all it proves if they win is they spent a ton more money

180 mil payroll + more revenue than most of the other teams combined

if they were my team, I'd hang my head in shame

[Hep]

53. reading glasses

small print. Read ALL the words. Can't just look at the pictures.

[CMT]

45. while this poll is a bigger margin

three other independent polls this week also give Dean double digits leads of between 13-17 points.

[tsipple]

50. A Little Cold Water (and Encouragement)...

Folks, I'm as excited as anyone, but let me state the obvious for just a moment: the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.

So we have to keep working our you-know-whats off. There's still some time left (several weeks) before the real poll. And a lot can happen. Just ask George H.W. Bush about polls. :-)

[PAMod]

55. I wonder when Clark & Lieberman will decide to "skip" New Hampshire

Hey, maybe if their "national" numbers hold up, they will skip all of the primary states they can't win.

[Bertrand]

59. An unprovoked attack on Clark and Lieberman

This is supposed to be a thread for Dean supporters to be happy about his poll #s in NH, so leave them out of it unless you want people to come in here and piss on your moment.

[PAMod]

64. Yea, you're right.

I found their numbers to be the most striking numbers of the poll, though, and I temporarily lost my mind.

[Bertrand]

67. other recent polls conflict with zogbys numbers

but all that matters is when the voting booth closes.

[PAMod]

88. Yes, but these polls eventually affect fundraising efforts

Many regular donors will start lining up behind the presumptive "winners", leaving those at the bottom of the surveys to scratch and scrape.

[tsipple]

120. Good Point

I think this effect (fundraising following polls) is overstated, but it is a fair point. The bandwagon effect is a real psychological phenomenon in all walks of life, not just politics.

But I agree with the original poster in this thread-let, namely that the only polls that matter are on Election Day. This is no time for anyone to rest.

[AWD]

92. How many threads...

....will you whine in about Dean supporters celebrating his numbers???

[Name removed]

95. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AWD]

96. Just for the record....

Complaining about personal attacks, and then telling others to "grow up" kinda makes you a hypocrite.

[Name removed]

104. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AWD]

105. Sigh.....

You spin it any way you want. Whatever gets you through the day.

[AWD]

106. Oh, and by the way....

Secondly, my comment acknowledging your personal attack

Me thowing personal attacks??

I'm not the one who just got a post deleted. You are. (ON EDIT - Twice now)

Probably because the "censorship elite" (as YOU call them) are all against you.

[Bertrand]

113. I was

censored for my criticism of the moderators/moderation of the board, as ive learned.

[maha]

142. New Hampshire rarely chooses the nominee.

If history is our guide, the winner in New Hampshire will lose the rest of the primaries.

I don't necessarily think this will happen. However, the test for Dean will be how well he does outside the northeast. I don't know how he's polling in Iowa -- I understand he's stuck at neck and neck with Gephardt -- but conventional wisdom says he's going to be a hard sell outside the northeast.

I hope conventional wisdom is wrong; we'll see.

McCain skipped Iowa four years ago, remember, and it didn't hurt him at all. He was sailin' along until the Bushies ambushed him in South Carolina.

[paulk]

146. that's not completely true

The NH primary has gotten it right 8 out of 13 times since 1952. However, when you take away incumbent presidents it falls to 6 out of 11, or just over 50%.

Because of the front loading of the primaries I do think the importance of both the Iowa caucus and NH primary are increasingly overstated. Super Tuesday is where it's at now.

[JNelson6563]

57. Rock on Dean!!

:toast:

Julie

[Upfront]

90. Go Dean!

Give um hell Howard!:bounce:

[ShavedBeard]

60. So much for Kerry saying

So much for Kerry saying "Dean is imploding".

Kerry could only hope for such an implosion of his campaign.

[blm]

72. Do you have a cite for that? This is the first I've heard.

.

[Hep]

74. More than happy to help you out.

Of course it's the first you've heard! Why the hell does that not surprise me?

New York Times (heard of it?)
9/20/2003
Section A
Page 9
Column 3

Kerry Says Dean Is 'Imploding'

By MICHAEL JANOFSKY (NYT) 279 words

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70814FA3B5E0C738EDDA00894DB404482

[Vis Numar]

77. ROTFLMAO:

DISPLAYING FIRST 50 OF 279 WORDS - Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts today sharply criticized one of the other leading Democrats running for president, Howard Dean, asserting that some of his recent pronouncements show that his ''bubble's bursting a bit.

[killbotfactory]

89. HAHAHAHA

That made my day.

[CWebster]

68. Dean and his supporters worked hard

They earned every vote.

One of things I like about Dean is that fighting spirit. He works tirelessly.

Here's hoping. ;-)

[mrgorth]

78. If Dean wins the presidency

I will never stop crying tears of joy.:party: :toast: :beer:

[RetroLounge]

79. DEAN DEAN DEAN DEAN DEAN DEAN DEAN DEAN

There, that'll make those bashers cringe once again.

Dr. Dean is unstoppable...

[skewthat]

80. Jebus!

my lordy!

[ozone_man]

81. Fantastic!

Zogby does seem to yield better results for Dean than some of the other polls, but they poll likely primary voters for one thing.

It's a great result earned for alot of hard work by grass roots volunteers.

[Wednesdays]

82. Is it possible this was what "newsguyatl" was predicting?

Do any of you remember about 4 or 5 weeks ago, Newsguyatl was all excited about some news he had come across, but was sworn to secrecy about it? He said that the news would come out sometime in October, and that it would "transform the race," and it would be especially good news for Dean supporters. Is it possible he was already seeing the trend of the poll numbers?

[Capn Sunshine]

83. Hey , let's ask him.

[CMT]

84. No

how could he predict what the Zogby poll would be. I got the feeling it would be a big endorsement of some kind.

[Bandit]

85. I remember that also

I thought it had gone down the memory hole like most things here. If there was something imminent I missed it. I'm sure five weeks ago are however long ago his prediction was had nothing to do with a recent poll showing.

[Wednesdays]

91. I should have highlighted and underscored the word

"TREND."

But yeah, I thought that had gone down the memory hole, too. That was the second "prediction" he made, and everybody was all excited over it. I can't remember what exactly the first one was about, but he had everyone glued to their TVs in anticipation of some event, and it didn't pan out.

[Larkspur]

93. Yesterday, my co-worker from NH who is a registered Independent predicts

that Dean will NH primary by a mile. I looked at him skeptically, yesterday, but today Zogby shows Dean running away with NH. Guess my co-worker is in tune with his state's politics. Of course, Deanocrats, that doesn't mean we can get complacent with our work in NH.

My co-worker is signed up with DFA but is not working on the campaign. He doesn't have the time, but he is going to meet a DFA volunteer in his town on Nov 1.

I will be canvassing in my co-workers town over the Nov 15 weekend.

My co-worker also told me yesterday that he can't wait to see Dean's newest ad. He despises Kerry and Kerry's whining about Dean's attacks only makes him more resolute to vote for Dean.

[Silverhair]

94. So? Dean is a New Englander.

Vermont & New Hampshire are bordering states. Dean need to show strength outside of his own area.

[Atlant]

97. If you think Dean gets NH votes because he's from Vermont...

If you think Dean gets NH votes because he's from neighboring Vermont,
then you don't understand the politics between these two states very
well; NHerites don't much like Vermont. Kerry ought to be far more
likely to reap the "neighbor" benefits than Dean, at least in the
populous southern part of NH, 'cause lots of us earn our paychecks'
in Kerry's state.

Unfortunately, while that theory worked really well for Paul Tsongas,
it doesn't seem to be working very well for Kerry.

Atlant

[NewYorkerfromMass]

110. It's come down to a personality contest apparently

too bad.

[tsipple]

134. Re: "Personality Contest"

Actually, NewYorkerfromMass, if I can attempt a little thoughtful discussion here, I wouldn't call it a personality contest.

Senator Kerry and Howard Dean have very real policy differences. They're not as far apart from each other as they are from, say, George W. Bush. But they do have differences, and these differences are getting aired in New Hampshire and elsewhere.

Obviously Dean and Kerry disagreed on the Iraq Resolution going all the way back to before the vote. That's an oft-cited difference between the two. But there are also differences in health plans and budget plans.

I think voters are also trying to decide what you might call "campaign fitness." Things like how well each Democrat communicates, how effectively they get their messages across, and how much they can mobilize volunteers and raise funds. I don't think these are really personality measures, although sometimes the personalities of the candidates can affect these campaign measures. There's no question these campaign-related attributes are important, because they're related both to election chances and leadership skills.

As I've said before (here and in other threads), I think John Kerry is a wonderful person: thoughtful, intelligent, and capable. He did a phenomenal job with the Vietnam POW-MIA hearings, and I remember them well. I also think he's been poorly served by his campaign staff. No, that's too strong -- he's been less well served. That's important, and it's why we have a nomination process, to help candidates get their campaign skills honed and perfected.

He's getting better. I don't think his attacks against Dean are working for him, and they might be working against him. (It's clearly not his nature anyway. He's always been about elevating the debate.) I think Kerry still has time, especially if he can grab attention with a positive policy proposal.

Many Dean fans, I think, are enthusiastic about him because of his innovative and effective campaign. Business-as-usual wasn't working for Democrats. Dean shows an extraordinary capability to adapt to changing conditions and to lead the debate. His record is excellent, his issue positions are thoughtful and balanced, his resume is mighty fine, and boy can he get his message across. (He's doing that in two ways. He's bypassing traditional media and building his own networks -- see my own web site for one grassroots decentralized example -- and he's also communicating effectively when he does get the microphone in the traditional media.) We admire all these non-personality attributes (and his personality, sure) because they're the ones that can get our guy elected.

Hope that helps!

[HFishbine]

112. Right

By that thinking, I would be supporting John Edwards. But I'm not.

[tsipple]

131. I Can Echo That

New Hampshire is greatly influenced by the Boston media market. Many people living in New Hampshire work in Massachusetts.

Vermont, though, is a world apart. (You'd never know it looking at the map.) I'm not sure I can fully explain why. Some of it has to do with the fact that there's a big river (the Connecticut River) separating Vermont and New Hampshire, so only the relatively few bridges between the two states tie them together. Another reason is that there aren't big population centers along the river. Burlington is the biggest city in Vermont, but it's way up in the northwestern part of the state. Manchester, New Hampshire is much closer to Boston.

For those communities that are near the river -- like Hanover, New Hampshire, White River Junction, Vermont, and St. Johnsbury, Vermont -- there aren't very many people living on the other side that cross over day-to-day. It's weird.

Also, Vermont is profoundly rural, while New Hampshire is more industrial and much more heavily populated.

As a side note, there's some interesting Vermont history. A lot of people talk about the Republic of Texas, but Vermont was actually the first independent country to join the new United States (as the fourteenth state). Both New York and New Hampshire claimed Vermont at one time, but Vermont briefly declared independence before joining the 13 original colonies. Vermont also played significant roles in both the French and Indian War and the American Revolution. Its location near strategic waterways meant heavy involvement in both wars.

Vermont is home to one of the most fascinating communities in the world: Darby. Darby straddles the U.S.-Canadian border. Literally. (I was there this past July and nearly ran through U.S. Customs. It's just a little building off to the side that looks like a quaint New England gas station. Very easy to miss. The customs officer thought I was lost, but I stayed off I-91 on purpose.) I believe the border runs right through the town library, and there's a street where houses on one side are in the U.S. and on the other side it's Canada. Great place to be if there's ever a military draft! I like the town a lot, because it really blows apart the idea that international borders ought to separate people from one another.

If Dr. Dean continues to do well we'll probably hear an awful lot about Vermont. It's truly one of America's treasures.

[ozone_man]

137. Wonderful description and brief history of Vermont.

New Hampshire, I think, may be somewhat culturally and geographically separated between Northern and Southern New Hampshire. Probably the Northern half is more like typical New England, like Vermont, and Maine, while Southern New Hampshire has alot of economic and cultural spillover from Massachusetts, Connecticut River or not. But the river certainly has a huge effect.

So, when Dean wins the office, maybe he should tell Bush, borrowing a famous Ethan Allen quote, "In the name of the great Jehovah and the Continental Congress." What do you think? Actually, some of the long time Vermonters that I know say that Ethan Allen said something quite a bit different, but this is the sanitized version.

[CMT]

98. he is showing strength outside his home region

leads in Arizona in a poll released last week by 8-points.
leads in Michigan in an EPIC/MRA poll released two weeks ago.
is neck and neck with Gep in Iowa
is running second to Edwards in Edwards own internal poll in SC.
is statistically tied for lead in Georgia according to a poll reported in politics and campaigns yesterday.
runs second to Gep in Missouri in a poll released last month
Is leading in Maryland according to a poll released last month.

[ryharrin]

107. Is arizona far enough away from NH? How about Iowa?

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/index.php?page=local&story_id=102103c1_dems.poll

He's also tied for second in SC in this poll. http://newsobserver.com/news/story/2902505p-2671719c.html

[demrebel]

108. What Dean needs to do to get my vote

He needs to take on the clinton's. Bill did this with Jesse Jackson and it zoomed up.

Dean is doing what Jesse V did with the internet. He is smart, listens and he is not a lawyer.

Tell Bill and Hill to stay out of it.

[Woodstock]

109. checking out Zogby's national polls, Dean is doing well too

although he loses the matchup with Bush (they all do, and I think that is because people don't know who they are yet - but the unnamed Democrat beats Bush)

Dean is top in the nation:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=747

"Dean tops the list of nine Democratic hopefuls with 12%, followed by Clark with 10%, Kerry at 9% and Lieberman at 8%. Gephardt and former IL Senator Carol Mosley Braun are tied at 5%, while NC Senator John Edwards and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton are tied at 3%..."

and he is only 1 point behind in Iowa:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=748

"Gephardt received 22%, compared to Dean’s 21%."

[sendero]

114. some folks....

.... need to look at the numbers and cry in their teacups :)

[IranianDemocrat]

116. Good ol' Howie.

.

[Loyal]

119. I think that's uncalled for,

and I don't support Dean.

If you wanna call someone Mr. Flip-Flop, call Mr. Clark that. He praised Bush two years ago and now calls himself a Democrat. :eyes:

[Loyal]

117. Well...

Civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun, and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich each received less than one percent.

[Name removed]

125. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Loyal]

126. You guys would just love that, wouldn't you?

:eyes:

[Kathy in Cambridge]

128. LIEberman doesn't have a chance

he was the weak link on the Gore ticket.

We do appreciate your party's opinion, though. Now we knoe who NOT to vote for.

[David Zephyr]

127. From the People Who Are Getting to Know the Candidates.

I know that there are a lot of hopes and aspirations here vested in other candidates, but folks Howard Dean has wrapped it up and I hope that you who have not made him your first choice will begin to get on board...because we need you.

[tsipple]

132. Whoa, I Can't Go Along With That

Howard Dean does not have the nomination wrapped up by any means. There's going to be lots of hard work to do in many states, and there's plenty of unpredictability in politics.

Let's not forget that earlier this year Dean was an asterisk in the polls. (And a small asterisk at that.) His first quarter fundraising was a whopping $37,000. It was easy to say that the polls were not worth much then, and I maintain that whether you like the current numbers or not they still aren't worth too much. They're little crumbs of news -- happy crumbs, but crumbs.

I think virtually everyone on DU is ABB (Anybody But Bush) or at least ABBEL (Anybody But Bush Except Lieberman). Democrats (and many independents and thoughtful Republicans) are united in our desire to get America back on track and to elect new leadership. But I'm all for letting Democrats vote in caucuses and primaries first so we get the strongest nominee with the broadest democratic (small d) support directly from voters. First things first.

[David Zephyr]

133. You Are Adorable.

But it's wrapped up.

That's why the GOP is digging around Vermont--they know it's over, they know it's Dean.

Look at how far Dean came without money, without name recognition, without momentum, without media attention, without endorsements.

Dean is tied in Iowa with Gephardt, slaughtering everyone in New Hampshire, and now in first place in South Carolina. That's the first three contests.

He's also miles ahead in polling in California and has the activists solidly in his camp.

It's over.

[tsipple]

136. First Place in SC?

Let's not get crazy here, unless you've seen something I haven't. Dean's best showing in South Carolina is his #2 spot tied with Lieberman, behind Edwards, in a poll done for the Edwards camp. Another recent South Carolina poll showed five or six Democrats all clustered together in a big blob within the margin of error.

I would certainly expect Republicans to be sifting through the Vermont state records right about now since Dean is looking like he could win the nomination. But you can bet they're doing plenty of research on all the top tier Democrats.

Not to give too much away, but at one time I sat in a state house sifting through lots of proposed legislation to see what we (Democrats) could find to use against a Republican. (All perfectly legal, ethical, and above board, I should add. Just ordinary public records in a library.) That particular Republican didn't win his party's nomination, but we had a four inch thick binder of all the goofy stuff he proposed. It was worth our time and effort to be prepared as long as there was at least a reasonable chance he'd win his party's nomination.

By the way, thanks for calling me adorable. Please do that again any time you like. :-)

Oh, another thing. Last I checked William Hill was taking bets at 8 to 1 that Howard Dean would win the November, 2004 election. If you do think Dean has the nomination wrapped up, and then you just take the mathematics (50-50) for the general election, he really ought to be 2 to 1 for a fair bet. So you might head over to William Hill and put a tenner (or more) on Dean. I'd take that bet.

[David Zephyr]

138. Adorable.

Here's the Zogby poll from just September. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=731

Here's a New Englander who the media and Republican portray as a raving liberal tied for first place in South Carolina.

Dean's got the most amazing organization and motivated supporters I've ever seen a full year from an election.

[tsipple]

139. I'll Agree with that Last Sentence

It is something to behold.

That's the South Carolina "MOE blob" poll I was referring to. (There's another one like it, I believe.) Thanks for posting the link.

By the way, I just confirmed that William Hill is still taking 8 to 1 odds on Dean winning the general election. I think those are great odds for the person betting, don't you? The rest of the bets listed look awful.

[David Zephyr]

141. So How Do I Place a Bet?

I went to the William Hill website and, naturally, got lost. Is it legal to bet on political races?

[tsipple]

145. In the U.K., Sure You Can Bet Legally

William Hill is a bookmaker in England.

I think you go to the Politics section of their web site, click on the U.S. 2004 Presidential Election section, and then you can place your bet. (You'll have to register and use a credit card.) They'll take your bet from anywhere in the world, and you can choose among several different currencies, including U.S. dollars. (That's what "units" means -- whatever choice you make for currency. So 10 units would be 10 dollars if you register for U.S. dollar betting.)

Your state or locality may or may not have laws against betting with offshore companies. Substantial winnings are subject to federal income tax, so make sure you pay that if you're a high roller.

I just realized the above information makes me sound like a gambling addict. I buy about one dollar Powerball ticket a year if the jackpot gets huge, and that's my limit. But I find the whole thing fascinating in a mathematical sort of way.

Let's say you bet 5 bucks on Dean. If Dean wins the general election at 8 to 1 odds, you get 40 bucks. I don't think there's any commission or anything like that. William Hill simply collects a portion of the total betting pool and sets odds in order to get roughly equal pools for each candidate (plus their cut). They can reset the odds at any time if one candidate starts to get more "action." (So if lots of DUers go and pour money into Dean at 8 to 1, William Hill will have to bring his odds to 6 to 1, 4 to 1, or whatever.)

The way you measure whether these are good odds or not is you look at the mathematical probabilities and then compare, assuming you are risk neutral. A risk neutral bettor means someone who is indifferent between getting 50 cents guaranteed versus getting 1 dollar if a coin comes up heads and 0 dollars if a coin comes up tails.

So 8 to 1 odds is equivalent to a risk neutral bettor assessing Dean's chances of winning as follows: 1 in 4 chance of winning the Democratic nomination followed by 1 in 2 chance (50-50) of winning the general election against Bush. That's why I say that I think 8 to 1 is very good for the Dean bettor right now, even for one who is relatively risk averse.

OK, did all that make sense to everyone?

[tsipple]

150. By the Way, Another Place to Bet...

The Iowa Electronic Markets also allows you to bet, but it's a bit different than William Hill. It's an actual futures trading market with the participants buying and selling to set prices (rather than the bookmaker).

The participants in the Iowa Electronic Markets, if I'm reading things right, are currently assessing Dean's chances of winning the nomination at 4 in 10 (40%). (It'll cost you 40 cents to buy a contract that pays 1 dollar if Dean wins the nomination and 0 dollars otherwise.) He's the favorite. Clark is #2 at about 26% chance, then Kerry at about 11.5%. Dean has had a slight rise in recent days. (Kind of strange that Gephardt, who's polling well in Iowa, is priced so low at IEM.)

If I'm reading things right, the IEM people then give the Democratic nominee a touch better than 50-50 odds of defeating Bush. (I don't see any appreciable differences between the various candidates in those general election odds. They all look about 50-50. Which, this far in advance of the general election, is really the only sensible assessment.)

So in IEM the Dean odds are about 4 in 20, or 1 in 5. So the William Hill odds are currently out of whack with the IEM numbers and, therefore, you're better off going to William Hill for your Dean bet. I happen to think Dean is underpriced currently on IEM as well, but William Hill is that much sweeter.

[Chomskyite]

135. Does this nail the coffin up for Kerry?

n/t

[paulk]

148. the primary is in three months

an eternity in politics... While this is certainly good news for Dean, "nailing up" any coffins is premature.

[tsipple]

151. Totally Agree, But...

We're going to get into Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's holidays here very soon. Lots of distractions from all things political. There are some people who think the holidays might freeze the field for a while.

I don't know if I put much stock in that argument, but there is that theory.

[MODemocrat]

144. Is this for real? Go Howard Dean

That's incredible. Sure hope it's legitimate.:bounce: :loveya:

[Vis Numar]

154. we just wonder

whether he can hit 50%

[quaker bill]

156. We can only hope

that Kerry and Gep keep up the attack. I sharpens Dean's game and makes him look stronger.

[tsipple]

157. Re: Kerry and Gephardt Attacks

Those attacks also seem to drive up Kerry's and Gephardt's negatives. Which is disappointing, actually.