Dean is unelectable

[Eloriel]

Dean has peaked. Dean is imploding. Dean is McGovern, Dean is Dukakis. Dean is ...

Dean is beyond categorizing and labeling and, apparently, prognosticating (esp. if you're a pundit or have been listening to pundits).

From the blog:
http://www.blogforamerica.com/
http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001994.html
Dean Leads National Poll as Most Favored, Electable
A new Newsweek poll of voters nationwide shows Dean leading the Democratic field again for the first time since Wesley Clark's entrance into the race:

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Dean with 15 percent. Close behind, 12 percent favor Clark, while Kerry, Gephardt and the Rev. Al Sharpton are tied at eight percent each.
Six months ago, the pundits said Dean couldn't win because he couldn't raise the money. You changed that in June, and again in September. A few months ago, pundits and opponents said that Dean couldn't win because he was too liberal-- then too conservative-- and those arguments fell apart because of your letters and outreach. And the latest Newsweek poll reveals that the last desperate argument against Dean-- that he is somehow "unelectable"-- has fallen apart. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/- 3%, only Dean and Clark are capable of defeating Bush, according to the poll's hypothetical matchup:

Dean 43 Bush 49
Clark 43 Bush 49
Lieberman 43 Bush 50
Kerry 42 Bush 50
Gephardt 42 Bush 51
The poll also reveals further bad news for Bush, whose reelect numbers are only at 46% (47% would like to see someone new):

In the wake of President George W. Bush's securing of $87 billion for Iraq's reconstruction, a majority of Americans (58 percent) say the U.S. is spending too much on operations in postwar Iraq, according to the latest Newsweek poll; 31 percent say spending is about right. Almost half of Americans (49 percent) say they don't think the Bush administration has a well-thought-out plan to establish security and a stable government in postwar Iraq.
Keep writing letters. Keep reaching out to friends and inviting them into our campaign. We are winning because of your efforts-- because you, and not the pundits, are going to be the defining force in this election.

And here's what Zogby had to say about his NH numbers (Dean 40%, Kerry 17% and everybody else downhill from there):

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001983.html
http://www.theunionleader.com/prez_show.html?article=28102

Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates.

“This is stunning,” said Zogby. “This qualifies as juggernaut status.”

Zogby called Clark “the dynamic” in the race. In August, before the general entered the race, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 17 percent. But in late September, soon after Clark’s entry, Dean’s lead dropped to 30 percent to 20 percent with Clark third at 10 percent.

A month later, Clark is down to 6 percent and Dean’s lead is back up.

Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates.

“This is stunning,” said Zogby. “This qualifies as juggernaut status.”

Zogby called Clark “the dynamic” in the race. In August, before the general entered the race, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 17 percent. But in late September, soon after Clark’s entry, Dean’s lead dropped to 30 percent to 20 percent with Clark third at 10 percent.

A month later, Clark is down to 6 percent and Dean’s lead is back up.

And just for fun, here's a graph of Dean MeetUp registrations -- which are now at over 128,000. Oops - forgot the link. http://jimbrayton.com/stats/meetup/



Eloriel

[IranianDemocrat]

1. This is great.

Now we can see 150-200 posts of a Deanie circle jerk.

[w4rma]

4. Dean is the candidate most likely to win the nomination, IMHO

And if he does then DU will *really* look like one big "Deanie circle jerk".

[IranianDemocrat]

7. Only on DU.

.

[w4rma]

8. We are the Dean campaign. We will assimilate you. (joke)

:evilgrin:

[IranianDemocrat]

15. Hehe.

Hey if Dean wins the nomination, I will fully back him 100%.

[pruner]

9. the only place Dean is not the frontrunner is…

in your closed mind.

[IranianDemocrat]

12. Sorry.

It's anyone's game right now. Nice personal attack btw.

[not systems]

17. You got the first shot in.

I guess the Clark "circle jerk" had "petered" out...

[Pastiche423]

24. Touche!

[Iverson]

61. alternately

We can see the first post of a new thread become a pointless throwaway line.

[bluestateguy]

2. I hope you are right

But this all of course is without what will be a 200 million dollar offensive from Karl Rove, replete with gay bashing, militarism and waving of the bloody shirt ("liberal, liberal, liberal!"). Dean will have to do twice as good as the Clinton/Gore campaign of 1992 at responding to these smears.

[pruner]

6. Dean has the potential to compete financially with Bush

once he opts out of public funding the sky's the limit.

I don't think it's inconceivable that he'd raise well over $100 million.

Republicans always outraise/outspend Democrats in presidential elections… but that doesn't mean they always win.

[villager]

25. yeah, but "twice as good"

...isn't that high a bar, considering how feeble so many Demo tactics/responses were in 2000...

(I realize Bush had a compliant media on his side, too...)

[Zhade]

62. Electoral theft in his brother's state didn't hurt, either!

NT!

[Justice]

69. Kristol is just settin' pins for Rove to knock down.

Why can't Deanites at least acknowledge the issues and discuss the plan to confront them?

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Upfront]

10. Dean Can Count

my $100.00 as money in the bank. Just as he is!

[Pastiche423]

5. He only gets better

and I keep liking him more.

[JasonBerry]

45. Howard Dean

Dean is looking better and better to me as well. I never have bought the "unelectable" crap from the right in the Democratic Party. Is he as "traditionally" progressive as I would like? Probably not. But, he has taken his shots, continues to stand and has offered a very reasonable program for the country. I like Dean. I also think he may very well be our next president.

[caledesi]

47. Dean is da man! He only gets better.

We have the power.

[Jackpine Radical]

52. All your base

are belong to Dean.

[Egnever]

55. !!!

http://www.planettribes.com/allyourbase/video3.shtml


:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Jackpine Radical]

68. In A.D. 2101

War was beginning.
Captain: What happen ?
Mechanic: Somebody set up us the bomb.
Operator: We get signal.
Captain: What !
Operator: Main screen turn on.
Captain: It's You !!
Cats: How are you gentlemen !!
Cats: All your base are belong to us.
Cats: You are on the way to destruction.
Captain: What you say !!
Cats: You have no chance to survive make your time.
Cats: HA HA HA HA ....
Captain: Take off every 'zig' !!
Captain: You know what you doing.
Captain: Move 'zig'.
Captain: For great justice.

[RC]

11. While I don't really care for any of the candidates

I am gettin very tired of the people here shooting at and trying to kill our own.
The enemy is BFEE and the administration in our White House.

Get with the real program folks.

[Eloriel]

14. Moi?

I am gettin very tired of the people here shooting at and trying to kill our own.


Can you please explain to me how my post came anywhere near doing what you've just charged?

Eloriel

[diplomats]

13. If you look at history

Dean and Clark might have the best chance, because the others are in the House and Senate, and sitting congresspeople haven't won the presidency since 1960. Governors seem to have a big edge (Reagan, Carter, Clinton, Chimpy).

[wyldwolf]

16. I want all of you to remember this and hold me to it...

If Dean gets the nod, he gets my $100.

[pruner]

19. glad to hear it

whoever gets the nomination gets my money too.

[poskonig]

18. If Dean can pull of the nomination, we'll be unstoppable!

With the entire party behind him, it will be like one giant tidal wave crashing down on the White House. I can't wait until Dean gets to 'operate' on Bush!

[quaker bill]

20. Dean is electable.

With a little more help from Bush*, a ham sandwhich will be electable

[Ardee]

21. If its got mustard

and is on rye bread, it has my vote!

[TLM]

30. Ham / Cheese 04

[arwalden]

22. I've Heard (CANDIDATE) Is Unelectable For All Nine Contenders...

... I guess this means that Bush has won? By default.

Should we all just go home and start figuring out who's going to run in 2008?


-- Allen

[MGKrebs]

23. There is another thread about starting a DU activist organization,

but for my money, Dean's already doing it.

[w13rd0]

28. At the end of 2004...

...I expect that my real name will actually be posted somewhere on the web, namely at opensecrets.org...

Being personally invested in the outcome of an election has worked to the Repukes advantage for years. It's time we took it back...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Dean's "anti-war" vote (hypothetical NO on IWR) will lose him the general

The American popular sentiment was for acting on Saddam.
Whatever Dean actually thought- his imprudent association with the anti-war movement makes him look like a passive pacifist and will disqaulify him from serious consideration by the electorate.
I wish you understood the implications of this very weak looking position- I'm glad Kerry did, and Bill Clinton did too.

[Eloriel]

32. I wish you understood

that by and large -- except for the sick thinkers on the right -- Americans recognize and appreciate and if given a chance gravitate to the truth.

The war itself grows more unpopular by the day. There IS no good way out of this war that Bush will contemplate let alone do. People are increasingly disenchanted quite on their own. And therefore increasingly capable of hearing the truth.

But, even were that not the case, the fact remains that there WERE no WMDs. Iraq was NOT an imminent threat as the administration said he was. Dean was right then, he's still right. He said it when it was considered political suicide and stuck with it. That's courageous and principled leadership in my book.

Eloriel

[NewYorkerfromMass]

36. Americans recognize and appreciate and gravitate towards the truth?

If they actually did Bush would not be president now. When dealing with the American people, one must remember that we're not dealing with philosophy majors.
Dean represents the equivalent of an electoral train wreck. Clinton did the right thing by pushing Clark into the race. He knows damn well Dean cannot win it, and he and Kerry knew what the right position on IWR was.

And sorry but I don't see political suicide as an admirable addition to one's resume.
I think Nader may agree with it though as a viable politial strategy.

[Eloriel]

42. They didn't vote against Bush because they didn't get the truth

That the mainstream media (esp. TV) doesn't deliver anything near the truth is so true, and such a pervasive truth at that, that you can hardly go a day without it being addressed on DU.

And no, not all that many Americans are philosophy majors. Nor do they need to be. I don't happen to have quite the jaundiced view of my fellow Americans as you do. I'll give you three reasons why (or examples, really): (1) Even with shit-poor media coverage of the truth, Americans still "got it" that it was a Newt Gingrich trick to shut down the government. And they didn't much like it, or the effects. (2) Even with virtually non-existent coverage of the truth about the Clinton Impeachment (and all that happened before it), Americans still supported him with pretty darned good favorables. (3) Even with constant attack propaganda against Gore, he still won.

Yeah, like Abe Lincoln, I actually have a LOT of faith in Americans as a group IF they are given the truth. That they're not is hardly their fault.

Dean represents the equivalent of an electoral train wreck.

Yeah, and then what did ya dream?

Clinton did the right thing by pushing Clark into the race.

Clinton's interest is saving his own -- and Hillary's -- position of power and influence in the party. Can't have all those everyday people actually taking their power back. Can't have candidates getting The People to fund their campaigns. Nuh huh. Wouldn't be good for the DNC and the DLC either, and all that corporate largesse.

He knows damn well Dean cannot win it, and he and Kerry knew what the right position on IWR was.

If HE thinks Dean is unelectable, he's got another thing coming. It won't be his first miscalculation or example of fatally flawed judgment.

And sorry but I don't see political suicide as an admirable addition to one's resume.

Which means anything's okay with you -- any hypocrisy, any lies, any self-serving political calculus, any death-dealing votes for war, any pandering votes against financing the war, any missed votes on important issue, any votes in favor of putting women's lives at risk -- as long as winning the next election is the goal and the outcome. That makes you just another example of everything people hate about politics these days (and why people flocking to Dean who isn't in the same boat at all), and everything that's wrong with the people leading the Democratic party -- a party that used to actually have principles.

I don't want a party or a candidate without principles that it stands up for. Period. That's why I'll never vote for Kerry. No principles except the self-serving ones. Too bad his luck has run out -- The People aren't buying any more.

Eloriel

[Classical_Liberal]

58. Since their opinion on the war is changing to the against position

and most wish we hadn't done it, why do you think it will be an issue for Dean. Your not making any sense at all.

[TankLV]

66. "If they actually did Bush would not be president now."

"When dealing with the American people, one must remember that we're not dealing with philosophy majors."

You got my complete agreement there, unfortunately for the future of our beloved country.

It remains to be seen on the rest of your statements.

Just like those how said of Dennis Miller's potential candadicy the "Boxer would mop the floor with him" - I'm not so sure. All I have to say is:

Raygun.
King George I.
King George II.
Aaaaanold.

Never underestimate the potential success of your foe;
and
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

[caledesi]

48. Thank you El. I am so sick of this sh*t! nt

[TLM]

34. Must... prop.... up... meme...

Perhaps you missed the part of the poll regarding indi voters?


While a lot of americans supported blowing shit up... when the election rolls around, the video game 3-day style war everybody likes will have long since become the long ass dead soliders every day vietnam stlye war that nobody likes.


Dems and indis and moderate repubs are going to be voting aginst Bush policy in Iraq... and they will do so based on the state of things on election day. Guys like Kerry, Lieberman, and Clark who supported the war, will be seen as having helped cause the problems.

[KittyWampus]

37. Kerry and Clark Most CERTAINLY DID NOT SUPPORT THE WAR

But apparently you were projecting onto others when you posted "Must... prop.... up... meme..."

[TLM]

41. Kerry voted for the war... CLark said he would have voted for it.

"I don't know if I would have or not. I've said it both ways because when you get into this, what happens is you have to put yourself in a position — on balance, I probably would have voted for it."



(CNN (1/21/03)"I probably wouldn't have made the moves that got us to this point. But just assuming that we're here at this point, then I think that the president is going to have to move ahead, despite the fact that the allies have reservations."

(CNN, 2/5/03): "The credibility of the United States is on the line, and Saddam Hussein has these weapons and so, you know, we're going to go ahead and do this and the rest of the world's got to get with us.... The U.N. has got to come in and belly up to the bar on this. But the president of the United States has put his credibility on the line, too. And so this is the time that these nations around the world, and the United Nations, are going to have to look at this evidence and decide who they line up with."

[jeter]

27. I've always said that Dean is electable

But he can't make the same mistake that Gore made. He can't allow Bush and the Republicans to define him. He must define himself.

[Pastiche423]

31. He's not allowing anyone to define him now

[caledesi]

50. I think he is doing that quite well, thank you very much. nt

[Rex]

29. That was the mantra on Fauxnews today

He has em shitting in their boots...him and the General! Oh, how sweet it is.

[KittyWampus]

33. Zogby Is Not Reliable

I have NEVER commented on any polls before on DU because I do not put much stock in them.

However here is some information I came across this evening...

According to Zogby:

two thirds of Americans support the privatization of Social Security
two thirds of Americans supported the consideration of a SECOND impeachment of President Clinton

In September, Zogby did a poll in the South regarding Democratic Primary Candidates and began with a question about gay marriage (clearly to influence opinons about Howard Dean).

In October, Zogby JUST did a poll in NH (which you sight here) where he began with a question about whether "the Democratic party should nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking? (clearly to influence opinions about Wesley Clark).

Perhaps Dean did have a giant surge in NH... but I am not taking Zogby or anyone elses polls numbers for a fact.

[TLM]

40. Trusting one poll is unfounded...

However trusting a series of polls that show definite trends and multiple polls from different sources that show similar results, is reasonable.

ALL signs show Dean is the clear leader, from polls and meetups to fundraising and volunteers. Not only is Dean in the lead, but he continues to gain more and more and more support.

I mean there are 120,000 people, and growing every day, who are not part of the campaign directly, but who voluntarily meet once a month to write letters, reach out to their communities, coordinate efforts, share information and pool resources. That is why Dean is wining…

[Skwmom]

35. The Rove attacks have not even started against Dean.

The corporate owned media has been following orders and propping Dean up. Zogby has zilch credibility after his using his latest poll to try to paint Clark as an "opportunist" - hmm where have we heard those words from. Clark on the other hand has been viciously attacked. Rove must be laughing his *ss of about how easy it is to fool the liberals. I use to think that only Bush had followers who idolized him, refusing to see the truth. I see that trait is no longer exclusive to the right wing branch of the republican party.

[ScreamingMeemie]

38. And one could say that about all of the Democratic candidates'

followers if one wanted to be negative against ones own party...wouldn't you say?

[madfloridian]

39. Back on ignore.

I have a right to come here and read a thread about Dean without all the insults. I don't insult your candidate.

[TLM]

44. What are you talking about....

All you post are the Rove style attacks on Dean.


And look how ineffective it has been so far?

[quinnox]

43. Dean would be a weak candidate

Whether he is unelectable or not is unclear, Bush just might end up beating himself to the point where anyone could defeat him. But Dean is definitely the weakest candidate of the top tier.

[TLM]

46. Yeah as is clearly shown by....

his record breaking fundraising... his record breaking volunteer organization... his high appeal to independent voters... his leading poll numbers... yeah real weak.

[caledesi]

51. And just what are you basing this on? (totally confused) nt

[MaidinVermont]

54. Only if Dean connects with kooks like ANSWER will it be a problem

I trust he will make the right choice.

[w4rma]

56. Note, A.N.S.W.E.R. stands for "Act Now to Stop War & End Racism"

http://www.internationalanswer.org/

[MaidinVermont]

49. I know the acronym, it's the acts of them that concern me

They really need to narrow their focus of hate without capturing the average American in their rhythm of hate. But hey, don't mind me it's only my opinion and the way I see it. Please don't hate me for my vision.

[not systems]

53. Reference please.

Can you direct me to the specific source for your
statement "their focus of hate" I would like to
learn from your careful and precise reference on
this subject.

I am sure you can produce a reference or link with
ease and quickness.

Thanks.

[MaidinVermont]

57. My source is observations of their words + those they have speak for them

I’d be really pleased to meet you if I could remember your name
But I got problems of the memory ever since I got a winner in the fame game
I’m a citizen of legoland travellin’ incommunicado
And I don’t give a damn for the fleet street afficionados

[not systems]

63. I'll take that as a no.

You don't have any links or references to
what you allege.

Thanks.

[Terwilliger]

65. your vision of hatred?

you seem to have the only hatred around

[Rowdyboy]

59. These poll numbers are great for Dean...

I wish him well, because if we don't get rid of bubba in 2004, its all over...

[Adjoran]

60. some "unelectable" candidates

were Kennedy 1960 (Catholic), Nixon 1968 (loser), Carter 1976 (Jimmah who?), Reagan 1980 (actor), Clinton 1992 (Bush I unbeatable).

It is waaaay to early to say that any candidate is "unelectable."

Karl Rove's attack machine? Sure it would hit Dean hard. Or Clark. Or Gephardt. Or Kerry. Or Hillary. Or whoever. It's coming, and the only ones who can be killed by it are those who don't think they will come after them.

I vote with those who say, "I support this candidate because of his ideas, and his character, because . . . " and recoil from those who say, "Your guy sucks."

Is Dean the frontrunner? You bet he is! Was Kerry the frontrunner a few months ago? Yes, he was. And now, with Dean's surge and Clark getting in, Senator Kerry is looking at polls which, if the primaries through February 3rd were held today, would see him with one poor second out of contests in IO, NH, SC, AZ, MO, NM, and OK. Feel sorry for him? Talk to Lieberman, who was "frontrunner" before Kerry.

Fortunately for Senators Kerry and Lieberman, the elections won't be held today. The first tests are still months away. "Frontrunner" now just bespeaks expectations, and the expected frontrunner has to deliver.

Kerry, Lieberman, and Edwards have to break through now. Gephardt is poised to win Iowa, or finish a close second, and he is so far ahead in Missouri that no one else is really fighting for the state on Feb. 3rd, so he will at least be able to get past that series of primaries. Dean is going to finish first or second in Iowa, and win NH. Clark is showing strength in SC, AZ, and NM, and has enough media mystique to keep going.

I see the race as Dean, Gephardt, and Clark after February 3rd. One of the others may be a surprise survivor - there usually are surprises. If so, that candidate will get a lot of coverage. The likely "dark horse," if one emerges, will be either Edwards or Lieberman, by exceeding expectations in early primaries.

I am still uncommitted, and could support any of the candidates. I am trying to objectively analyze the race, based on over 40 years of involvement in Democratic primaries. If I had to pick a guy to watch now, based on his nationwide strength that is vastly underreported (meaniing that when it becomes obvious, it will draw media attention as a "phenomenon"), it would be Gephardt.

He's strong in Iowa, having organized there for 15 years already. He will win his home state of Missouri on Feb. 3, and has a shot at SC. His union record is pretty well perfect, and that means loyalty and turnout of those voters. And all of this has been undercovered by the media, who were surprised by Dean and charmed by Clark.

I know a lot of people here don't like his positions on the wars, but by staying close to Bush on those issues, he avoids a lot of potential attacks in the general election. That leaves economic issues as the main points of contention, and he presents a Democratic alternative to Bush on every one of those.

I haven't decided who to vote for yet in my (SC) primary; Dean, Clark, Gephardt, and Kerry are still viable options, and if Edwards shows some strength, I would include him as a possible, too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. I Wouldn't Mind Gep As Our Nominee...

He has true working class creds....

[Woodstock]

67. They like him, they really like him!

:)