Common Knowledge Among the Iraqis

[dreissig]

Suppose it's common knowledge among the Iraqis that the U.S. is keeping Saddam alive to avoid the chaos that will follow if he turns up dead? What would be the implications of that?

• It would explain why the U.S. hasn't found Saddam in six months of unfettered access in the country. Saddam isn't incommunicado, either. He has everything but a weekly TV show.
  
  
• It would explain why collaborators like the deputy mayor of Baghdad are being killed. He's small potatoes; why risk killing somebody like that unless it's to enforce some as-yet-unexplained discipline?
  
  
• It would explain why Bush isn't making any deals. The relative peace gives him breathing room to pretend things are improving.

None of these things explains much in itself, but the fact that they happen together suggests there's more going on. We are like archaeologists studying pottery shards - some pieces fit together; others don't.