Read this because it's a great explanation of the "other side" of the Bush Propaganda from "Financial Sense."
The Forgotten Few
At a time when the price of most stocks are soaring and valuations border on the ridiculous, very few bargains
exist in the market. What drives the price of most equities these days is momentum. It has become a game of
money chasing money. The Fed has done its job to keep hot air flowing into asset bubbles and keep them from
deflating. If there is talk about deflation it is asset deflation they are referring to. Central bankers are most worried
about the value of paper assets declining from junk bonds to small cap stocks, to stocks and bonds in general.
Very little has been accomplished within the real economy.
Judging from the value of markets around the globe and especially here in the U.S., you can say that monetary
policy has been effective in resurrecting old bubbles (stocks) and creating new ones to take their place
(mortgages, bonds, and real estate). The NASDAQ is up nearly 45% this year and still has no earnings. The
companies that are doing well this year are those companies that are either losing money, have no earnings, or
are experiencing balance sheet problems. In a momentum driven market things such as real earnings, dividends,
price-earnings ratios have no place. Investment decisions aren’t based on research, industry fundamentals, or
sound investment principles. Instead, in a frothy speculative market such as we now have today what other
investors are doing, what they are buying, and what the general mood of investors is becomes more important.
The basic decision to buy is predicated on the fact that others are buying the same thing. No one wants to be
left out, so resources are deployed and asset prices get inflated. While everyone in the financial industry may be
worried about asset deflation what we are actually seeing is asset inflation. When professional investors or
amateurs are willing to pay 30, 50, 100 or more times earnings we’re talking about a casino, not an investment
market. The best thing many of these highly speculative stocks have going for them is that they have no
earnings. If they did investors would realize just how expensive many of these companies are and the fact that
they are being ransomed at a fool’s price. Even the companies that are actually making a profit may not have
real profits if one takes into consideration all the variables such as stock options, inflated pension plan earnings,
or write-offs which routinely get dismissed or are left out in most earnings releases. As already mentioned, this
market trades on momentum and not fundamentals. How else can P/E multiples of 30, 40, or a 100 be justified?
More at................
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/1020.html