Why the defeatist attitude regarding the GDP increase?

[CMT]

Yes, finally we had one spectacular quarter in the GDP during George W. Bush's presidency and people here start panicking that now we are going to lose the election!!

The economy may be finally picking up but is the job market? that is what we need to keep our eyes on and here it is still very fuzzy. Bush is going to have to create a lot of jobs in a year to make up for the more than 3 million lost during his administration.

Second, we have more than the economy as an issue in 2004--we have Iraq, and that could turn out to be the decisive issue which will decide the election. Remember in 1968? LBJ and the Democrats had a strong economy but a war which divided America--the result was a GOP victory in the presidential election despite a 3.2% unemployment rate!!

In 1976, the country emerged from the 74-75 recession (which was much worse than the current downturn) and incumbent president Ford was still defeated.

Iraq should be an issue. The Democrats must make the administration lies leading up to the war the defining issue. We must ask--what are we doing there? why did we go in there? What is this going to cost us in lives and money? The $87 billion issue (and bound to grow) is without doubt something we must stress. Remember how Bush's approval rating declined after his televised speech on spending this much money on rebuilding Iraq? We must stress that this is a president who invaded another country and now we taxpayers have to pay to rebuild it while he ignores the infrastructure of our own country.

Finally, Remember this that even when Bush was at his peak in the months after 9/11 his re-elect numbers never were very high. This president has always been vulnerable and he has done more than anybody to unite the Democratic party. It is going to be a very close election in 2004, but Democrats can win.

[Kamika]

1. Yeah I agree

A recovering economy when the unemployment remains high and DOESNT recover isnt good at all

[Cush]

2. On the whole

The American people will believe whatever they hear on TV, so they if hear that things are rosy and that Tax Cuts Rules, they'll go along with it. And when they'll never know that the numbers are always being revised

[wryter2000]

6. True, Cush

But I think for most of the people "economy" = do I have a job? Does my brother-in-law have a job? Did my wife lose her job? Do we have the money to make the mortgate payment?

[DBoon]

20. TV is reality for most people

Their circle of imaginary friends on TV is probably greater than their flesh-and-blood acquaintances.

If TV says the economy is doing great, people will believe it and discount their own experiences.

I mean, how did Reagan get elected?

[Kamika]

7. yeah but..

For once they will notice it themselves. The uneployment is high.. ppl unemployed wont fall for the "economy is good" even if theyre a rushco freeper

[Bake]

17. CNN was skeptical this morning

They were taking a "we'll see if there is a JOB recovery" attitude. And that is exactly appropriate. I can't believe I'm agreeing with something a media talking head (Jack Cafferty on the morning show) says.

Bake

[wryter2000]

3. Precisely

When unemployment begins falling we can 1) congratulate our brothers and sisters who are going back to work, and 2) shift strategy to the myriad of other things that Whistle Ass has effed up. Such as the war.

[number six]

4. I don't want to get tombstoned but...

I'm pretty sure some of those people are freeper infiltrators. If this breaks forum rules I apologise, but i'm pretty sure.

[Kamika]

13. yah i agree

Posting stuff like "WERE DOOMED" heh..

Im sure theyre laughing at us now at FR.. "i wrote this "wer doomed" on DU and the democRATS are all worked up"

[NoMoreRedInk]

5. Employment is a lagging indicator. It ALWAYS follows GDP in increases...

never the other way around. The problem for employment right now is that productivity is increasing leaps and bounds.

Companies can produce the same goods and services with less people. We have to have the economy speed up faster than productivity to see hiring across the board.

[DBoon]

21. And whose employment will increase anyway?

An increase in the US GDP could just mean more jobs in China and India.

[GainesT1958]

8. Remember also...

That many economists said that the last Bush Recession actually ended in the fall of 1991, but due to subsequent sluggish growth in the first half of '92, AND continued high unemployment in '92, Poppy still lost. Same thing's going to happen to Dub, folks, and it will STILL be "the economy, stupid!" next year at this time--just watch! :eyes:

B-)

[sandnsea]

9. We had an economy in the 90's anyway

And no deficit, income going up for everybody, low unemployment, low inflation, home ownership surged, I'm sure there's alot more. It's a question of what kind of economy we want, one that is 'self-supporting' or one that is based on tax cuts that are creating deficits for our kids and grandkids.

[alcuno]

10. It's good news, but not unexpected.

We're waiting for the jobs outlook to pick up. Americans don't know the difference between the GDP and the CPI, but they know what a job is.

* is going down regardless of how the economy is doing.

[camero]

11. Fuzzy Math on the GDP

I think the increase in GDP is attributed more to global production now than US production because more and more companies are moving production offshore and since they are headquartered in the US, they use the foriegn numbers to boost thier reporting of production.

Technology and slave-driving the workers you have left only goes so far. Something else is going on. I could be wrong though. Any takers on this?

Edit: for typo

[mrgorth]

12. Because I'm scared

to death that * will be reelected. Through in the GDP thing with Miller and Snufalupagus stabbing us in the back and I get very, very worried.

[janekat]

14. Unemployment will go down several months after a recovery normally

Just in time for the election....

[West Coast Democrat]

15. I've Noticed Many of the "Defeatists" Are Fresh Newbies Here

Need I say more?

[Snellius]

16. Look at it this way: Bush NEEDS a recession

Like he NEEDS the terrorist threat. Without the rationalization that the economy needs saving how is he going to justify further tax cuts, hedging on his prescription drug pledge, not funding his education program, privatizing social security and medicare. How do you justify a deficit when things are doing well? In fact a prosperous economy may be conservative Republicans worst nightmare. What it will do is push the argument further to the real core of the problem -- not the overall growth of the economy but the distribution of wealth. Look not just at the jobless rate, but the growth in poverty, crime, bankruptcy, the uninsured.

Besides, the bad economy didn't do us much good during the midterms, so why do we assume it's going to hurt in 2004 if it turns up.

[Bake]

19. Bush's answer for everything is: Tax Cuts!

Got a recession? Cut taxes.

Economy booming? Cut taxes.

The neocons really don't care what the circumstances or rationalizations are, just cut taxes for the wealthy.

Bake

[Snellius]

23. True, but that was before 9/11

During the 2000 campaign, when the world still seemed safe and prosperous enough that even someone as stupid as W couldn't screw it up, when the huge surplus was still bulging the federal coffers, Bush was touting "It's the people's money". But after 9/11, after the last $87 billion for Iraq -- and that's just the supplemental -- it's much more difficult without the recession to support everyone not paying their fair share. Especially from a patriotic position. With a war and bottomless debt, it's harder to claim that rich corporations with record profits should get even more "tax relief." Bush is selling out America.

[sendero]

18. reports I've heard...

... credit both business buying and consumer spending with the increase.

The fact that the child tax cut went straight from the mailbox to the store does not sound like good news to me. It sounds more like consumers are strapped and they'll spend whatever they get the day they get it. Since there will be no more of those checks forthcoming, I fail to see how this is a sea change in the economy.

[bleedingheart]

22. some people are never happy...

personally I don't see anything to jump up and down about... Bush is still screwing up...