Am I the only one who does not believe the economy grew at

[dorktv]

7% this last quarter?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/newstmpl=story&ncid=&e=1&u=/ap/20031030/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

[mhr]

1. Don't Believe It For A Second Either!

eom

[dorktv]

2. It is really bad when you can not believe good news

in the press.

[Wwagsthedog]

3. No

Those who do the measuring set the criteria and thereby get the result they want.

[DUreader]

4. It is a Goddamn Lie!

[LisaM]

5. Something seemed fishy to me, too.

For example, one of the indicators was a rise in auto sales and other durable goods. I don't know anyone who's bought a new car in even the last year. Same with other household items (stoves, refrigerators, etc.) The last new car anyone I know bought was in August of 2002. My parents bought a new computer and I don't know anyone who has bought new furniture. The figures are strange. They will be adjusted later, as they often are, but that won't be news.

[Wellong]

43. Well, someone is buying them

I don't know anyone who's bought a new car in even the last year.

Someone is buying them. The sales figures for the Big 3 are not fantasy.

Your statement reminds me of something said by a DC opinion columnist (whose name escapes me at the moment) in 1984 after Reagans reelection. "How did he win? I don't know anyone who voted for him."

The country, and economy is far larger than our little lives.

[loudnclear]

63. It's ne debt! Tax cut was down payment of huge new debt

what wasn't new debt was refinancing. Lots of people refinanced and are spending the money...that is good for the economy now but three years out we'll be in trouble again. Just as Bush is leaving his second term

[bluedog]

45. big cars trucks

wasn't there a tax break or no taxes on cars and trucks for busniess over a certain weight? This would show an increase in auto sales...they paid no taxes..

[Wellong]

46. Not exactly

I do not know the exact details on what you are talking about, though I know what you are referrencing. Someone who is an expert on this subject is best to answer it. But I know the claim that they paid "no taxes" on the vehicle purchase is not true. It was more of a deductable/depreciating asset type of tax deduction.

[bluedog]

49. heres the link to tax credit....

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/Business/hybrid_suv_tax0301001.html

"It doesn't hurt to have a larger vehicle, but I wouldn't say it's a requirement of my business," he said on a cell phone while driving the Excursion. "But I ended up saving $32,000."

This year, the perks of buying a large SUV — if you're a small business owner — got even bigger.

Congress recently passed a tax bill, as proposed in President Bush's economic stimulus plan, that offers a $100,000 tax credit for business owners who purchase any vehicle weighing 6,000 pounds or more when fully loaded.

When Wizinsky's accountant told him about the credit last year, the amount was much less, at $75,000, but it was enough to encourage Wizinsky to trade in his Mercury Marquis for the Excursion.

"It sounded too good to be true," said Wizinsky, a health care consultant in Novi, Mich. "But it was true. So I bought the SUV. For a small company like mine it's a significant credit."

[Wellong]

53. Tax Credit?

I think the article is mistaken. I believe it should read "tax deductable", not tax credit. There is a HUGE difference between the two. If it were a tax credit, and this gentleman had a tax bill of $25,000, he would get a $75,000 check from the government. That is not happening.

The basis of this tax incentive is sound and a good thing. It was designed for farmers to help with the purchase of large equipment and needed vehicles for farm work. Problem is that the monster SUV's get classified as trucks, not cars, and thus qualify for this.

[Wellong]

59. also

what % of the sales have been to people like Wizinsky? I suggest as a % of vehicle sales it is almost an insignificant number.

[Blue_Roses]

64. OH, THIS EXPLAINS ALL THE COMPUTER

prices that were drastically dropped right at the time tax refund checks went out. Walmart had them for around 489-500 dollars. I nearly dropped my teeth. Many stores, including Walmart, allowed you to cash your check there as long as you bought something.

There's always a catch. We shouldn't have to have tax cuts to boost the numbers. We need JOBS that will add a CONTINUAL economic flow, NOT just a "spurt" as we see with tax cuts.

Don't you see, that's why bush wants another round of tax cuts in the spring--to boost the numbers just in time for November.

NOTHING is EVER as it appears without hard work. bush has put NO WORK into helping this economy recover. Tax cuts are not the way cause it's only a SMALL temporary solution.

[Brucey]

6. Statistics don't lie.

It is impossible to fudge or fix numbers. There is only objectivity in economics. It is a science. Now, listen to me: you are getting sleepy, very sleepy, look into my eyes and repeat after me: Economics is a science....

[dorktv]

9. Pipe down...Krugman's column comes out tomorrow and we

will see the truth! hee hee. ;)

[camero]

11. It's a science alright.

Which means that it is merely a hypothesis until the resulting facts come in. Facts which can be manipulated to steer opinion to the person's ideology or bias.

[dorktv]

12. I am going to steer this left.

[camero]

20. Someone should

I think they are cooking the books again. With ties to Enron, I don't trust anyone in the Bush Cabal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Bingo-Science and Math....

Let's not let our despair lead us to create our own alternate realities....

One quarter of ecomic growth is not a trend...

[liberalnurse]

7. The sad point is that

those who have experienced job loss are too poor to protest and argue the stats. The people and business that benifited from the tax cuts are the ones magnifying the gains.

[Brian Sweat]

8. I am a little skeptical.

I fully expect to see those number adjusted downward in the coming months. It would not be the first time.

[dorktv]

10. That is what I thought.

[cap]

13. Big jumps in spending do not lead to job creation

start reading the fine print

Especially encouraging was the 15.4 percent growth rate in spending by businesses on equipment and software in the third quarter, the largest increase since the first three months of 2000.

The housing market, powered by low mortgage rates, also contributed to the strong showing on third quarter GDP. Investment on residential projects grew at a 20.4 percent rate, the fastest since the second quarter of 1996.

Federal spending, which grew at a 1.4 percent rate, was only a minor contributor to GDP in the third quarter. Spending on national defense was flat. But in the second quarter, military spending on the Iraq (news - web sites) war — which grew at a 45.8 percent rate — helped to drive economic growth.


Job claims fell by only 5K.... So businesses are running on fumes. Also if you are offshoring work like mad, you can increase spending on IT but not decrease jobless claims.
___

[unblock]

14. it's the truth, wake up, you people!

gdp IS up dramatically. of course, the over $500,000,000,00 that bush is pumping into the boardrooms has something to do with it.

the problem is that despite the fact that the nation is producing more in dollar terms, (a) the dollar is worth less, (b) the new growth is in non-productive sectors like war and iraqi rebuilding, and (c) the benefits of and increasing gdp are not widely distributed -- republican fat cats are quite richer, but the rest of us are none improved.

gdp is a single statistic, and is not always a good indicator of the health of the economy. so don't let republicans tout this statistic. instead, let's find some numbers on how the economy isn't delivering extra production to the middle class....

[tom_paine]

15. No, we have entered the Soviet Phase of Imperial Amerika

Just the very start. The first trickle.

No I don't believe the Bushevik lie, or let me say I believe it as much as I believed Brezhnev back in '79 when he said Soviet Toilet Paper Production was up 600%.

[zonmoy]

29. Actually

isnt it more accurate that we have entered the rise of the roman type emperors.

[leetrisck]

16. Just heard a Repuke admit earlier that it was

mostly due the growth in Federal Govt.

[tritsofme]

22. Last quarter it grew substantially, but...

Federal government spending, which grew at a 1.4 percent rate, was only a minor contributor to GDP in the third quarter. Spending on national defense was flat. But in the second quarter, military spending on the Iraq war - which grew at a whopping 45.8 percent rate - helped to catapult economic growth.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031030/D7UGJQTO0.html

[screembloodymurder]

18. I've seen no pickup

in our area. It's Bushit!

[Wellong]

44. your area

I've seen no pickup in our area. It's Bushit!

There were sizable areas of my state, North Carolina, that tremendous economic losses during the 1990's. Does that mean the "90's Boom" was bullshit and made up?

[leesa]

71. So who is doing well? Layoff numbers are huge and continuous

They only ones making money are the top 2% who cashed in repeatedly on Bush's tax cuts. Are they spending the money to inflate the numbers for political purposes? After all, if Bush is not elected, they are less likely to be able to loot the treasury via corporate welfare. They plan on looting the planet so they will pump up the economy artificially to make the Beast look good. Can they sustain it through three more quarters?

[Wednesdays]

19. What I think is a better barometer of the economy...

Last year after Christmas, I noticed at Sears etc. there were stacks and stacks of unsold items such as microwaves and other "gift"-type items. And there were also many smaller items that they couldn't sell, even at a 75% (or more) discount! Christmas items sat on shelves for months...they could hardly get people to buy if their lives depended upon it. I had never seen that before in my life.

Regardless of the rosy "numbers," let's see if that happens again this year.

On edit: don't forget that some of the White House's best friends are the Enron folks who employed the Andersen technique of bookkeeping!

[childslibrarian]

31. I agree with Wednesdays

This is a rich man's recovery. A better indicator is spending during the upcoming holiday season...

[DoYouEverWonder]

21. I can tell we are not seeing that kind of growth in manufacturing

My business ended the fiscal year down about 4% from the year before and in my industry that's now considered doing good. My September numbers were better than last year but that was because they didn't make such a big deal about 9-11 this year, however my Oct. numbers suck. Must other manufactures that I know, including myself have cut back on staff and no one is working at capacity.

I really don't know where they get these rosy numbers, all I can say is that in the real world I don't know anyone who is seeing 7% growth.

[tom_paine]

23. Theyget their rosy numbers from the same place Stalin did

Party Headquarters, of course.

:puke:

Am I the only who feels like they live on the "Animal Farm".

Comrade Squealer had a good day today, didn't he.

[Robin Hood]

24. Sounds like more fuzzy math.

What else should we expect from these crooks?

[Bronco69]

25. I've been unemployed for 34 months

and counting. Hell no, I don't believe it!!

[dawgman]

27. I've been unemployed for six months and

haven't even had a sniff. I don't believe it. I was shocked when I saw those numbers.

[Wellong]

60. Anyone who has been unemployed for 34 months

lost their job while Clinton was president, and is either lying, unwilling to accept employment at a postion they think is "beneath them", or is totally lacking marketable skills.

Flame away and call me all the names you like.

Sorry, but thats the way I see it.

[althecat]

26. I suspect the growth figure reflects the looting in Iraq

... And the military costs of the war. And replacement of armaments etc... i.e. not real growth.

Also... one implication of runaway growth is the risk of runaway inflation... and this means higher interest rates. And what would that do...

[kentuck]

28. Was the $87 billion calculated into the defense spending?

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp303a.htm

<snip>
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE,
a deceleration in imports, an upturn in exports, and accelerations in residential fixed investment and in
equipment and software that were partly offset by a deceleration in federal national defense spending.

<snip>
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.4 percent in
the third quarter, compared with an increase of 25.5 percent in the second. National defense was
unchanged in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 45.8 percent in the second. Nondefense
increased 4.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.4 percent. Real state and local government
consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2
percent.

...more

[althecat]

35. Useful link... by and large growth it does look fairly real.

No it looks like the defence boost came in the 2nd quarter... and presumably with the 87 billion will come through again in the fourth.

From this link you can see where the growth is... software, computers, durable goods... and so by and large it does look fairly real.

That said there is a nasty sting in the tail of this statistical release.

"The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in the second.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent in
the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second. "

That is close to 8% annunal inflation.... and is huge cause for concern. It means the Fed will be raising interest rates soon most likely and that will dampen any employment growth extremely quickly...

[kentuck]

36. althecat, I think the Fed will raise the interest rates...

to try and control this inflation. I would definitely look for an increase next quarter but it would still be historically low.

[TreasonousBastard]

40. Noticed a few things...

Inventories took a record dive, so we sold a lot of stuff that wasn't made in the quarter, explaining huge sales without hiring. Some economists think that means we'll be rebuilding inventories and hiring people. Others don't.

100 billion in missing tax revenues due to the tax cuts and sending out advance tax checks and 174 billion in increased personal outlays. There's a link there.

Total personal income was up 91 billion, but disposable personal income was up 191 billion. See where the extra 100 billion came from? And where it's not coming from next quarter?

Imports are down and exports are up. That puzzles me. I thought a lot of the extra tax break money would be buying cheap Borg-Mart Chinese slave labor goods. Maybe they bought cars and houses instead?

The exports are most likely the plywood and other stuff going to Iraq. They would have been ordered by Halliburton and the rest, and be called exports, not government or military purchases. But, who knows how they accounted for that?

Anyway, as goods are imported and jobs are exported, we can continue to have economic growth without new jobs as long as there are enough working, or rich, people to buy something. It sucks, and can't go on forever, but these pricks will milk it for as long as they have to.

Like next November.

[Zorra]

30. I saw Elvis this morning.

Well, maybe it wasn't Elvis.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are
incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The third-quarter
"preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on November 25, 2003.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp303a.htm

[lumpy]

32. You know figures lie and liars figure ?

When the wolf comes knocking at the door you'll know whether or not US economy is rosie.

[frank frankly]

33. it is a jobless recovery

based on increased military spending, layoffs (increased production), and probably some tricky non-job creating reinvestment from our ever-richer 1%.

it is bullshit.

[childslibrarian]

34. You are so right

and so concise...

[leftofthedial]

37. no frigging way

more lies from the Bush GOPNAC Cabal

[jbm]

38. something is very fishy...

I have a small company and we service lots of factory accounts in this area. Up until last year I ALWAYS had factories that needed extra stuff cause they were running extra shifts or working weekends or longer days,but last year that all changed dramatically,and it hasn't changed back yet. Things are a little better.For awhile the majority were either running four day weeks or laying off large percentages of their work force,and now I think they're all working five day weeks,BUT..I haven't had a single one go back to working weekends,long shifts,or adding any significant amount of new employees.

The factories I go to aren't huge corporate places that have found a way to be more productive. They're small business types that don't have enough orders to run at full steam. When I see that change,I might start believing things are as rosy as they keep saying.

[Zorra]

47. It's a LIE, and here is why they are lying: NOV 4 Elections!

Warning: This is from a RW site.

Democrats Hope to Win 2003 Elections to Create Momentum For 2004
By Jimmy Moore
Talon News
October 23, 2003

WASHINGTON (Talon News) -- Prefaced by an advertisement offering an autographed copy of liberal author Al Franken's book, the Democrat National Committee sent out an e-mail to supporters on Wednesday detailing their plan for "a stinging defeat on President Bush" beginning with the off year elections coming in less than two weeks.

http://www.gopusa.com/news/2003/october/1023_dnc_email.shtml

The economic news is based on an exaggerated advance estimate, which they will revise on Nov. 25:

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are
incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The third-quarter
"preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on November 25, 2003.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp303a.htm

It's an administration and RW media propaganda tactic.

[Zorra]

65. 1st Quarter GDP estimate revised downward

There are elections coming up in 5 days. I bet the 3rd quarter estimate is way high.

June 26, 2003
U.S. restates first quarter GDP by $47 billion
Given that the previous numbers were estimates, and not official, there are no allegations of wrong doing here. Nonetheless, a 26% downward revision is significant, and I would definitely not put it past Bush and Company to have inflated their estimates to try and give the stock market a post-war bounce. If my math is right, a $9.552 trillion first quarter GDP and an inflation adjusted annual growth rate of 1.4% means we had a $9.420 trillion GDP in the first quarter of 2002, and a 1.9% growth rate would have meant a $9.599 trillion first quarter GDP. In other words, the government estimares were off by $47 billion. Fifty billion here, fifty billion there, what's the big deal? Ask Wall Street:

First-quarter gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a revised 1.4% annual rate, matching the rate seen during the fourth quarter of 2002, the Commerce Department said Thursday. First-quarter growth was previously estimated at a 1.9% annual rate.

The final GDP report of the quarter was weaker than Wall Street was expecting. A Dow Jones survey of economists had predicted economic growth would be unrevised.

http://www.topdog04.com/000244.html

[leftofthedial]

39. I'd be surprised if anyone really believes it.

I see zero signs of recovery in my travels (LA - Colorado - Tennessee). I don't know a soul who is spending money on anything they don't absolutely need (except for a handful of wealthy friends who are traveling voraciously and spending their money mostly overseas).

What do I see? More and more and more layoffs. More and more and more empty storefronts. More and more small businesses with zero revenues, hoping to hold on "until things turn around." More and more and more homeless people. More and more and more for sales signs in front of empty houses. That's what I see.

Bush has fully politicized the Council of Economic Advisors and the various reporting agencies. We are through the looking glass here. Grand pronouncements from Big Brother that the chocolate ration has been increased don't impress me.

But when you transfer trillions of dollars into a few private hands in two years as the Bush GOPNAC Cabal have done, it gives a few people enormous opportunity to create short-term blips in the economy. Add to this the proven propensity for positive exagerration that takes place every reporting cycle under this administration and I'm suprised growth was so slow.

[cosmicdot]

41. the buzz words are amazing: rebound, gains, soars, accelerating

"... from a jog to a sprint, the economy surged from July through September at the fastest pace in nearly two decades.

{sarcasm}I spent last quarter with abandon ... I'm high off the affluent sprees.{/sarcasm}


I'm convinced ...
* is the anti-Christ

[frank frankly]

42. yes, let's all quote the brave Donnie Darko

"I think you're the anti-christ!"

marvelous, cosmicdot!

[susu369]

52. You pegged it -

the hyped language is the first giveaway. Out of the blue we suddenly have an "exuberant" :-) economy - the BEST since 1984!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whee.....

[althecat]

61. Funny thing is the markets don't believe the figure either...

Otherwise stocks wouldn't have fallen.

Something screwy is up that's for sure.

[karlschneider]

48. A couple of points:

Consumer spending always spikes as school opens up in late August/early September. The kids HAVE to have clothing, books, supplies and such.

And there WERE checks from the big ballyhoo'd 'tax cuts.' And people did spend those monies. Some of them would have preferred to -save- the pittance but had bills and rent, etc. to pay.

And property taxes were coming due during that period (mine were, at least...but I don't know if payment on those is put into the calculations...anyone know?)

What I do know is that 2 major employers here in eastern Oklahoma have announced within the last 45 or so days that they are closing their doors - I would suspect that more than a few of those soon-to-be-out-of-work employees would have traded their $300 rebates for a bit of job security.

Being the incorrigible cynic, I have to say there's no doubt in my mind that this bubble of "wonderful news" is essentially propaganda that Rove et al have stuffed down the throats of our compliant media, to be redistributed in the ...uh, 'proper manner.'

We shall see.

[kentuck]

50. And Bush wasted no time in gloating....

Just his nature, I guess. Take credit if it's good news - blame it on someone else if it's bad news...Or spin the shit out of it. :)

http://dailynews.att.net/cgi-bin/news?e=pri&dt=031030&cat=news&st=newseconomybushdc

[karlschneider]

56. No kidding. "personal responsibility"?? That prick wouldn't recognize it

if it arrived in the form of a pretzel. I just sent this one (I know he'll never see it, but some people will)
http://www.congress.org/congressorg/bio/userletter/?id=20004&letter_id=53732666

[Selwynn]

51. I believe it - but its wrongly interpreted as GOOD news when its not

Yes, I believe that all Bush's short term bullshit "fixes" can result in a quarter of growth -- but we are destroying our future in the process of a short term "fix" that isn't a fix.

All they care about is getting the economy going up for 2004. They don't care about the fact that they are in the process of bankrupting the country long term. The economy only "turns around" on paper when spending and record deficits are utterly out of control. The long term problem is the contious shipping off of jobs to india and China - this is another thing that is going to be combined with record breaking deficts and have a severe long term effect on the economy.

But Bush doesn't care. Hey, as long as things are looking up for the elections... :(

[kentuck]

55. It's like extreme Keynesianism....

If you go into debt far enough, you can spur the economy forward... But there is a price to pay when you dive in too deep...

[tritsofme]

67. Is it just me who thinks that its ironic that

a supposedly conservative adminstration is outright embracing Keynes?

[CWebster]

58. Businesses have to spend to build plants overseas

Businesses need computers for someone in India who calls himself Bob and answers questions about my phone service.

[Corgigal]

54. Everyone who post here on this topic

understands this issue more then me. Couldn't this just be as easy as loads of people took out new mortgages and had some extra funds for themselves incorporated in the loan. They in turn decided to purchase some items that they been holding off on? If that accounts for even 25 percent of the increase then it means this is a one trick pony and its already over.

[bloom]

57. no

I noticed the headlines that salaries are supposedly up. But then with so many having their jobs cut - like me - there SHOULD BE more money for salaries for those still working.

(That is my little rant of the day).

[drb]

62. Where the rubber meets the road, it's BS - here's what I heard today....

I'm shopping for a mortgage. You would expect a 7% growth number to make interest rates jump like a cat on a hot stove, but they did NOT jump.

Loan officer says, in effect, "The people who know what's what, know there's something fishy with the numbers."

[otohara]

66. I Confess....We Spent Our $400.00

but now we won't be spending anymore, anytime soon. I suspect that's true with many families. Especially because in CO it will cost 75% more to heat our homes thanks for rate hike from Excel

[Samantha]

68. Maybe the "X" factor is the huge sum of money China has been forced

to agree to invest to offset the tremendous imbalance of trade between the two countries.... The Washington Post carried a story this week saying the Bush* misadministration had been bargaining with the Chinese government to set the balance in order. China has agreed to purchase a number of planes from BOEHING (spelling?) (surprise, surprise) and a huge, huge dollar number of automobile parts. Those two categories are the main beneficiaries of the agreement.

If someone took the liberty to figure in this tremendous amount now agreed upon into the level of growth over the third quarter, that might be part of the explanation as to how Rove got his 7% calculation. When I heard the story, I was reminded of that period of time when Bush* was campaigning in 2000. The story had broken that the State of Texas was running huge surpluses. Overnight, the statistics were re-generated to magically reflect a huge surplus. One commentator said that if Bush* were elected, the problem of dealing with the number manipulation would not hit until he was long gone from the Lone Star State. Bush* had the figures altered to remove the opportunity for Dems to criticize him on his economic program during the presidential campaign. Offhand, I say he is employing the same maneuver this presidential campaign election season, just using different tools to achieve the same economic slight of hand he's so adept at using.

Overall, I am going to go on a limb and say the economy is going to "grow" every month for the next 12 months. And as the economy grows between now and the election, so will Bush*s nose.

[tritsofme]

70. That would be reflected in Q4 or early next year

depending on when the purchases are made. The 7.2% growth figure only accounts for GDP from July-September.

[Hippo_Tron]

69. Well...

"The president does not control the economy." - Senator Jon Kyl

I believe the economy grew but the fact is that economic growth is simply natural at this point. Doesn't mean the Bush administration is doing jack shit to reduce unemployment.