New Harris Poll: Lieberman, Clark, Dean, Kerry

[wyldwolf]

The latest Harris Poll conducted among a sample of 596 Democrats
and independents finds that Senator Joe Lieberman and General Wesley Clark have a small lead over Governor Howard Dean, Senator John Kerry and Senator Richard Gephardt. However, at this stage nobody has started to move away from the pack.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=SVBIZINK2.story&STORY=/www/story/10-31-2003/0002048840&EDATE=FRI+Oct+31+2003,+01:24+PM

[ALago1]

1. Harris Poll?

Never heard of it. The fact that Lieberman is the leader makes me instantly suspicious.

[janekat]

7. Hate to tell you but Lieberman been near or at the top NATIONALLY

since day 1. He's the only one with name recognition (other than Gore and Hillary). Until our guys get name recognition - it will continue to be this way.

[wyldwolf]

9. But ALago1 has never heard of the poll so it can't be true...

..it just CAN'T be!

[ALago1]

12. Just answer this question for me.

Every single other poll I've seen (including even Fox polls) are totally contradictory to this one. At least all the other polls are in accordance with each other regarding general trends.

It just doesn't add up for me.

[sangh0]

21. Here's a possible answer

Every single other poll I've seen (including even Fox polls) are totally contradictory to this one

Is it possible that "every single other poll" you've seen were polls from either New Hampshire or Iowa? Dean is doing better there than he is nationally.

[ALago1]

23. On the national scale...

...I think what bugged me was that Lieberman was always around third place(if I remember correctly). For him to jump so suddenly when his campaign hasn't been getting much traction nationally in terms of media exposure, etc. is puzzling.

[sangh0]

28. Not true

Lieberman has been at or near the top of most national polls for the simple reason that he has the most name recognition.

[ALago1]

29. Well if that statement is true...

...then the only conclusion is that I am mixing polls such as Iowa and NH with national ones.

But I'm having a hard time recalling polls w/ Joe conistently in first.

[ALago1]

15. And although I really do appreciate your condescending tone...

...I think I ( or anyone for that matter) have good reason to question the validity of this poll.

[wyldwolf]

17. I think you should speak for yourself and not everyone...

...I apologize if I came off sounding condescending but it doesn't surprise me that a Dean supporter would question a poll that doesn't have Dean in the lead.

[ALago1]

19. You should try not to presume too much re: Deanies

The reason why I was surprised was not because Dean was not in the lead, but rather because Lieberman was. That is what shocked me.

Interestingly enough, I'm thinking about switching my support from Dean to either Kerry or Clark. But for the moment, I think he is still above those two.

[wyldwolf]

22. Just an assumption based on prior experience with Deanies..

...but since you're new, I'll agree it was a bad assumption on my part.

I'm for Clark - but I still hear a little voice in the back of my mind whispering "Kerry Kerry..."

[bearfartinthewoods]

36. Edwards,,,Edwards,,,Edwards,,,

to throw in another siren's song

[ALago1]

10. Are you sure?

I know he started out way at the top, but as time progressed each poll I have seen of registered democrats nationally has shown him slipping far down the line.

Do you have a link to a recent poll? I just don't believe this.

[wyldwolf]

16. Up until VERY recently, he lead...

And is still top 3 or 4 in the most recent polls. That one poll would still have him leading is no surprise, especially given that the Harris poll admits that Lieberman is long on name recognition.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[ALago1]

18. Woah

That Quinnipiac poll with the Hillary question is interesting.

[wyldwolf]

20. Isn't it? Hillary blows them all away if she enters... but she won't..

..I could point out that she would hurt Dean's chances the most but her numbers are so overwhelming to everyone that it really wouldn't matter.

[HFishbine]

34. "I could point out that she would hurt Dean's chances the most"

You could, but you'd be contradicting the source you cited which shows she actually hurts Clark the most.

[wyldwolf]

35. I'd be contradicting my source? Maybe in a bizarro world...

We were discussing the Quinnipiac University Poll, which has Clark ahead with Dean in second place. Unless Clinton enters, then Clark drops to second and Dean drops to #5.

So, how did my statement contradict the source I cited, which was http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm (see post #16)?

I don't really expect you to answer.

[NoBorders]

2. Lieberman leads?

That would certainly be news...

[newyawker99]

33. Hi NoBorders!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[montanacowboy]

3. Hahaha

Ha hahahah - is this a joke?

[Brucey]

4. I think Harris polls have been around for a long time.

It is odd that Lieberman is out front; it must be purely name recognition.

[paulk]

37. Harris has been around since at least 1956

They do a lot of public opinion polling - pretty well respected.

Not so much into political polling. The significance of this poll is that it shows - most Americans aren't paying attention yet.

[Carrion]

5. Name Recognition Only

[West Coast Democrat]

6. The Harris Poll Is Well-Known

But its mostly a consumer polling company.

[wyldwolf]

8. Funny how some people are limited by their experience...

Harris Polls are just as accurate or inaccurate as any poll out there.

I don't pick and choose which polls I believe (with the possible exception of FOX) based on whether I like the info they provide.

[janekat]

14. Wyldwolf's right: Doesn't anyone follow the polls?

All the national polls have been saying that same thing for MONTHS. Where have you all been?

No-one else has any name recognition.

[West Coast Democrat]

11. Harris Poll Does Skew Conservative at Times

for example, their latest Bush job rating is at 59%, far higher than any of the other polls.

The Latest Quinnipac Poll shows Clark in the lead by 5 points (17%) over Dean, Lieberman and Gephardt.

[wryter2000]

13. Things are unsettled now

There are so many candidates. Most people don't worry about a primary until they're getting ready to vote.

[madfloridian]

24. Which of the candidates have you heard of?

Joe Lieberman 81% 87%
Al Sharpton 70% 74%
Richard Gephardt 68% 72%
John Kerry 63% 68%
Howard Dean 58% 62%
Wesley Clark 53% 58%
John Edwards 50% 53%
Carol Moseley-Braun 44% 49%
Dennis Kucinich 30% 31%

This should give you a good indication of how the preference vote would go.

[madfloridian]

25. NOW for the first preferences:

Joe Lieberman 13% 14%
Wesley Clark 12% 13%
Howard Dean 11% 10%
John Kerry 10% 10%
Richard Gephardt 8% 10%
Carol Moseley-Braun 5% 5%
Al Sharpton 5% 3%
John Edwards 4% 2%
Dennis Kucinich 3% 3%
Not sure 26% 27%


For a national poll this is not bad at all the top 3.

[wyldwolf]

27. I would rather it say Clark, Kerry, Dean...

Leave Emporer Palpatine off.

[Padraig18]

26. Technical correction.

It's 'Congressman' Gephart. :)

[HFishbine]

30. Useless

With a margin of error of 4%, Lieberman, Clark, Dean and Kerry are in a statistical tie for the lead.

Another oddity: How can 13% of those who claim to have voted in 2000 have never heard of Joe Lieberman?

[wyldwolf]

32. About as useless as any other poll...

How can 13% of those who claim to have voted in 2000 have never heard of Joe Lieberman?

Because they voted for Al Gore. Am I saying people might have forgotten or never got a grasp on who Gore's VP-to-be was? yep!

My wife couldn't remember who ran against Bush Sr. in '88 - even though she voted for him!

[lovedems]

31. Duh....

This survey, which was conducted by Harris Interactive by telephone
between October 14th and 19th, finds that Joe Lieberman is the best known of all the candidates, with 81% of all Democrats and independents having heard of him.


The fact that they even ask that of democrats is kind of silly! I think it is ridiculous to compare name recognition with how somebody will vote on election day. This poll is just all others, useless. I find it awfully hard to believe that Holy Joe is in the lead when he hasn't even gotten his campaign off the ground.