KY and MS Governorships

[jiacinto]

Do we have any hope? Or are they all going to go from blue to red?

[kentuck]

1. I think they are both already red but....

I think this latest economic report could be the difference in races, at least in KY. The Democratic candidate has been running against the "Bush economy" and tying Fletcher to Bush. This could hurt him. Let's hope the "good news" is for real and not just for political consumption...

[jiacinto]

2. I am not going to like Tue

nt

[CMT]

3. The unpopularity of Gov. Patton

will probably bring down Chandler in Ky--unless people really do vote their pocketbooks--many manufacturing jobs have been lost in Kentucky. I think Mississippi all will come down to turnout esp. among African-Americans who make up more than 30% of the electorate.

[jiacinto]

4. I feel like there is no hope

nt

[mndemocrat_29]

5. I think we could still win Mississippi

Musgrove will have the incumbency behind him, and that could deliver him a slight victory. Turnout will be key, but I still have this as a tossup.

I think that Blanco will pull it off in Louisiana.

As for Kentucky, it's still winnable, but Fletcher definitely has the edge. Should Fletcher win in a squeaker, we have to be prepared to take his House seat.

[jiacinto]

6. Ok

I hear that the Greens are running candidates in MS.

[Rowdyboy]

8. A local guitarist,/activist....

probably will take a few thousand votes statewide.

Musgrove won the last race by about 7000 votes.

You do the math.

[jiacinto]

9. Yep

I guess that the Greens are going to play spoiler, I suppose.

[TacticalPeek]

14. I wish Dillon would do the math!

snip
Dillon is taking a realistic approach to the Nov. 5 general election, saying he would be happy to gain just 3 percent of the vote. For a third-party candidate to get that much support should serve notice to the Republicans and the Democrats that voters have an alternative to the status quo, he said.

http://www.ddtonline.com/articles/2003/09/11/news/news5.txt

Bulls**t! It only serves notice to repukes to break out the champagne and prepare to rape the environment, the economy, the people and the future. How is 3% of the vote an alternative to anything?!

Barbara Blackmon for lt gov is the closest thing to a viable black state-wide candidate we have had in years, despite some recent foot-shooting. I cling to the hope that she will bring out enough black votes to eke it out.

Musgrove wasn't 'supposed' to win last time either, but he did anyway.

[Rowdyboy]

17. I disagree with you on Blackmon....

she shot herself in the foot bigtime with her "abortion challenge". Gary Anderson, however, has run an exceptionally positive and clean campaign for state treasurer. His opponent is a 29 year old repub with experience in 2 banks. Anderson has 25 years in banking, management and state government.

If Gary Anderson loses next Tuesday, I will truly lose heart and finally believe that my state is doomed. Because he is FAR the superior candidate. He MUST become the first statewide black public official here since Reconstruction.

BTW, Blackmon is my state senator and I had HIGH hopes for her. She was on a roll and Tuck was looking weak when Ms Blackmon screwed up. I really wanted her to win.

[jiacinto]

18. Well

what can you do?

[CMT]

7. it is like Alabama Governors race in 2002

Singelton (?) the incumbent lost only narrowly but had been behind in the polls by a large margin. The reason he lost narrowly is African-Americans did turnout to vote heavily and it was almost enough to pull him in--but not quite enough. Hopefully Musgrove will fare better in Mississippi.

[MasonJar]

10. Kentucky and the Governor's race

In Kentucky the Republicans have energized the Blacks in Louisville's West End. I am not sure who all has registered in those precincts, but I am confident most will be out to vote. I am sure that Chandler has been damaged by Patton, even though he has no real connection. Fletcher has of course run really dirty ads (Chandler has refused to). The ads paid for by the RNC governors are so bad that our only Republican governor in a generation, Louis Nunn, spoke out against them.

[eyeontheprize]

11. African-Americans feel disenfranchised and act accordingly.

Don’t count on great turn-out.

[goobergunch]

12. I'm not optimistic

Especially in Kentucky.

I've got KY as a TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP right now, and MS as a TOSS-UP.

It'll come down to turnout in MS IMHO, but we're not favored.

:(

[jiacinto]

13. neither am I

nt

[Zynx]

15. I don't have much hope here.

There has been a nasty trend in the country to throw out the incumbant governor/party in many states. It's not just us Democrats. Remember how we knocked off Republicans in OK, KS, WY, AZ, WI, IL, MI, PA, TN, and NM last year at the same time we lost incumbants in a number of states. The same trend is applying here and it is only magnified in Kentucky by Patton's unpopularity. MS, it is simply a very heavily Republican state and the general trend has been to boot out the Democrats in the South with the exception of TN last year where we had a pick up, but I remember distinctly how our phalanx of governorships down there evaporated last year, and it appears to be continuing.

[TacticalPeek]

16. Bush-whacked.

Remember when Raygun's WH and OMB guys were in that meeting about the big deficits Reaganomics was leading to, and they said "That's good; the dems will have less money for social programs."?

Same here. The Shrub economy creates hard times for the states, voters get restless and toss out incumbents. "We may have lost millions of jobs, but we picked up Mississippi."