Is Bush setting himself up for a big fall on the economy

[59millionmorons]

He of course is now claiming his tax cuts are working, saying this is the reason the unemployment numbers are down the GDP up, although we know that many are running out of unemployment benefits and are not counted and 126,000 jobs is a drop in the bucket. This was considered and bad month during the Clinton years who averaged 220,000 a month. Anyway what happens say in February we start seeing unemployment rise and the low GDP, what will he say then?

[ScreamingMeemie]

1. The reason unemployment numbers are down is because they

count new claims. My mother in law doesn't qualify anymore, many self employed friends never did. Here in Michigan, the numbers are rising...and that, I hope, is what they will think of come election day. They can cook it however they like, but the old saying goes...you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[Cocoa]

2. the jobs recovery is already about 18 months late

if in fact is really is ocurring now, it's still a Bush failure because it was supposed to have happened in 2002.

[Don_G]

3. How Can He Spin Ken Lay Now?

Kenny boy just agreed to comply with the SEC supoena!!!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=205814

[Skip Intro]

4. I hate to say it

but we might all be very much preoccupied with other drastic events by then. Events that will sour, of course, the "bush recovery."

[livinontheedge]

5. Alas, I'm afraid the economy is going to strengthen further.

I think we are just witnessing the upside half of the business cycle. Time will tell.

[trotsky]

6. I've got my Republican coworker in a corner now.

He's convinced that the 3rd quarter numbers were the result of * and his tax cuts. So I got him to accept that ANY downturn now is also to be laid at *'s doorstep. Woohoo! This'll be fun.

[Benhurst]

7. "...what will he say then?"

It's all Clinton's fault. And his goose-stepping followers will believe him.

[Beetwasher]

8. The Uptick in Labor is EXPECTED At This Time Of Year

This is when business start their seasonal hiring for the holidays. It would be real news only if there was NO uptick in the labor market.

The propoganda and excitement about the SEASONAL uptick in labor is a despicable display of dishonesty by the media...

[59millionmorons]

9. I dont mind the excitement

As long as they give the same amount of attention when the numbers go back up.

[Beetwasher]

10. The excitement is dishonest

This uptick happens every year and the "experts" know it. To paint it as something DIFFERENT this year is essentially lying...I guess I shouldn't be surprised but it still bothers me.

Don't expect the media to pay more than passing attention to these numbers when they fall flat in Q1 next year...

[livinontheedge]

11. I thought these numbers were already seasonally adjusted.

Otherwise, they are meaningless.

[Beetwasher]

12. Who Knows Anymore

I don't trust any of their numbers...:shrug:

The articles I read didn't mention whether they were seasonally adjusted or not and I have no idea where to get a hold of the methodology used to determine the numbers.

[livinontheedge]

13. Actually, they are seasonally adjusted.

Just found out for sure.

[Beetwasher]

15. Got a Link?

I'd actually like to see an article w/ more detail than the one's I've been able to get. Thanks!

[ewagner]

17. I noticed

in the commentary that the Dept of Labor has changed the manner in which they account for "seasonal adjustments". Does anybody know what effect that has in these numbers?

[Beetwasher]

18. That's what I'm wondering

I'd like to see that...

[LiberalTradition]

14. Then Bush goes.

It is as simple as that.

[kentuck]

16. unless Greenspan raises interest rates??

Then he can blame it on him if the economy tanks. They will not mention the many times that he increased the rates under Clinton to cool off the inflation fears...

[Snellius]

19. Voters blame when bad, but not applaud when good

Usually the economy is only an election issue when things are bad. This may help not hurt Bush but it won't help him either.