interesting trend in Bush's re-select numbers

[CMT]

I find this interesting.

Most polls show a close race between Bush and a generic democrat next year, but the more intensely partisans (and thus more likely to vote) seem to favor the Democrats. Here are some examples:

Today Gallup released a poll which indicated a neck and neck race with generic democrat with Bush leading 44-43 percent.

BUT

Those who are CERTAIN to vote AGAINST Bush 33%
Those who are CERTAIN TO vote FOR Bush 22%

Anti-Bush partisans have a 11-point edge.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031125.asp

And other recent polls indicate this as well:

CNN/TIME:
VERY LIKELY TO VOTE FOR BUSH: 32%
VERY LIKELY TO VOTE AGAINST BUSH: 38%

A six-point edge for the anti-Bush vote.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP
CERTAIN FOR BUSH: 24%
CERTAIN NOT TO VOTE BUSH: 33%

A 9-point edge for the anti-Bush vote.

I've noticed other polls which indicate this as well.

It seems that more people are committed to vote against Bush than vote for him at this stage in the game. That could be critical especially in a close election where turnout will be key.

[Guaranteed]

1. You're right

I've noticed that too. In reality, we are strong in a lot of areas.

You know, maybe DUers just feel so isolated from the rest of Americans that they think that they're the only ones who understand what's going on. I believe that there are a whole lot of people out there who really do "get it."

[DulceDecorum]

11. Landslide

I remember hearing about a country with a population of
28 million
which somehow managed to record
32 million votes
for their very unpopular president.

All the newspapers said that he won by a "landslide."

May the land NOT slide in the DIEBOLD election.
http://www.indystar.com/articles/6/091021-1006-009.html

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. The certainties are a very good sign.

This is going to be a close-run thing, this election, numbers like these are crucial for us to offset all the Diebold dirty tricks.

[jeter]

3. We have to improve our identification of who

will vote for us and get them out to vote. We have to have a plan that is independant of what the GOP do and stick to it.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. Yeah, a straight down the line, pure and simple strategy.

Something that can be simple enough to capture the public imagination, while sturdy enough to survive Bush's $200m. The key is, as you say, to remain consistent and focused. If we do this, we win.

[Renew Deal]

4. I have noticed this too. He is not holding his base.

Conservatives are not neo-cons. Most people aren't the Checney, Rummy, Washington Standard type. Government has grown under Bush, Defecict has grown, economy is a mess, and the military is stretched. What do the Republicans stand for if they are growing the gov't and giving away the house? That is his problem.

[DulceDecorum]

14. The Neocons Are Losing

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/j111703.html

[Booberdawg]

5. That's good to know

The trend seems to have been going our way for a while. I still feel cautious about this though - like with Franks talking about Martial Law and other possible distractions up their sleeves to rally the masses around the idiot in the White House. Not to mention fixing elections or just plain stealing some states.

[rucky]

7. You didn't give all the Gallup numbers

Another 20% are either "probable" or "leaning" supporters of Bush, while another 10% are "probable" or "leaning" opponents.


that closes the gap... but mabye half of the "leaning" supporters can be swayed?

I'd like to see what that group's views are about our individual candidates.

[CMT]

10. well that is because

the post was about the two extremes Certain Bush voters and Certain Bush detractors. Of course when the overall vote is 44-43 for Bush as I indicated it means that the middle ground is much closer. But your point is a good one.

[ElementaryPenguin]

8. Excellent point! ChimpCo is toast if we can get a legit election!

eom

[DulceDecorum]

13. Perhaps Mugabe and Fidel

can send observers.

[joeybee12]

9. It's the Dems to lose, just as it was to lose the Medicare debate, yet

somehow they keep finding a way.

Things ARE trending well for us, but never underestimate the incompetence of the Dem leadership.

[DulceDecorum]

12. I think Tom Daschle can fly.

Flying is when you throw yourself at the ground - and miss.
-- Douglas Adams