What states are we guaranteed in 2004?

[funkyflathead]

I would say Illinois, NJ, all of New England except New Hampshire, Delaware, Maryland, Washington and CA.

[Kathleen04]

1. I'd include..

Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, Illinois, and Michigan.

[Ediacara]

5. Wyoming?

Have you got something up your sleeve?

[Kathleen04]

16. Doh...

Not Wyoming, Wisconsin...

Wasn't thinking.

[tritsofme]

2. I think IL is in the bag, but Im very weary

of writing it off. Maybe Im just an eternal pessimist, but what you have seen in IL the past few years is not necesarily a shift to dems at a national level, but rage at the idiotic corruption in the state GOP.

I think the pubs have a much better chance of keeping the senate seat in their hands than they do winning the electoral votes. If you look back, IL usually votes with the candidate that wins the election.

And I think that CA is back in play, especially if things get better on the economic front and the gropinator can claim credit. The pubs wont win CA, but we will have to spend much needed money there.

[NNN0LHI]

9. Don't think we use Diebold in Illinois anywhere so it means another...

...Democratic landslide, I am sure. Should pick up one Dem Senate seat also.

Don

[tritsofme]

13. Are you so sure about the Senate seat?

I think that Jack Ryan guy would win if he wasnt cursed with his name.

[DRoseDARs]

3. Ask Diebold, they should know

They've already promised to deliver one state to Bush, so probably eyeing other states as well.

Anyway, using the interactive election map on John Kerry's site and assuming all the same states went to either the Reps. or Dems. as in 2000 (Florida to Bush *sigh...*) then we'd only need to bring Nevada and Arizona, for instance, over to the Dem side. Both states were won by Clinton in 1996. This one scenario would have Dems=275 to Reps=263. I will be a few months before we can more accurately guess which scenarios are more likely.

[creativelcro]

8. The CEO has promised to deliver the Ohio votes to Bush

but because the memo was everywhere, there will be extra scrutiny on Ohio...

[DRoseDARs]

14. Apparently Bush has dropped steel tarrifs...and might lose Ohio...

...If it's voters decide they really don't like the news. :) In context, if all the same states as 2000 stayed where they are 'cept Ohio then the Dems will win 280 to the Reps. 258

[Fescue4u]

15. Steel?

Theres a heck lot more to Ohio than Steel. I think there is plant nearby though, at least it used to be.

Ohio is pretty Freeperish, although it did go to Clinton at least once.

[DRoseDARs]

17. Here's the thread I'm refering to...

...and the article:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=800775

http://www.msnbc.com/news/999705.asp?0cv=CB10

[ShaneGR]

20. Uhhhhh

Ohio went to Clinton twice. Gore pulled out of Ohio three weeks before the election and still only lost by 3.5 percent. Ohio is in play BIGTIME for 04.

[Fescue4u]

23. Thats why I said at least

I thought Clinton got it twice but I didnt want to misstate and I didnt feel like looking it up :)

thanks btw.

[Ediacara]

4. don't forget Hawai'i

I'd suggest New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania too. Those last three aren't techinically "New England" so I thought I'd point them out as guarenteed :-)

[ochazuke]

6. Only one is guaranteed

DC will go Dem no matter what. But with a resurging economy and a stable Iraq, I don't see why there wouldn't be another result like 1984 or 1972. Especially with Dean as the nominee. His anti-war message (which got him where he is today) would look wrong, and his lack of rural appeal will mean he only carries big cities -- but not with a sufficient majority to overcome suburban and rural votes for the current resident.

The Dems best hope is that shrubya's policies bring about ever greater chaos. Trouble is, that may not happen until his second term. Too soon to get excited about 2006?

[creativelcro]

10. MA will go to the Dems, for SURE

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tinnypriv]

21. Ding

:thumbsup:

[meti57b]

7. with the gullible all so in awe of ah-nold schvantzenagger

it's entirely possible that CA is going to take some work, or I should say .... a lot of work.

It was reported the other day that ah-nold plans to go to the local legislative districts to campaign for his so-called legislative agenda. He may well do the same for bush.

[arewethereyet]

12. nothing is guaranteed, every one requires work

now maybe we have the edge at this time or even historically but you can bet your ass that the other side will approach it like its possible to get every single damn electirial vote.

It takes work to stop that folks.

[Bombtrack]

18. Depends on the candidate

if it's Clark, Kerry, or Edwards it will be all the states you mentioned plus hawaii

If it's Dean, probably Vermont, Rhode Island, and possibly New Jersey

[WilliamPitt]

19. My guess

Massachusetts (sure thing)
Connecticut (sure thing)
Rhode Island (sure thing)
Vermont (sure thing
Maine (sure thing)
New York (sure thing)
New Jersey (sure thing)
Maryland (sure thing)
Delaware (sure thing)
DC (sure thing)
Illinois (sure thing)
Michigan (sure thing)
Washington (sure thing)
Oregon (sure thing)
California (sure thing)
Hawaii (sure thing)

Closer ones:

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Iowa

Must win: West Virginia, Pennsylvania, OHIO, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin.

[Zynx]

27. I saw a poll where both Gephardt and Dean beat Bush in Iowa.

For them to be leading him there before our convention is very good.

[coloradodem2005]

22. Colorado? Indiana? Michigan?

Are these three states in play or even in our camp?

[arcos]

24. Michigan went for Gore...

and they have a Democratic Gov.

[coloradodem2005]

25. What about Indiana and Colorado?

[fujiyama]

26. both extremely

freepeerish...i dont see either in play in '04.

[Zynx]

28. Colorado maybe. Indiana, no Dem will ever carry that state again.