Like it or not, Dean is going to be the nominee

Freddie Stubbs

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Mon Dec-01-03 12:54 PM
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Like it or not, Dean is going to be the nominee

It has become increasingly clear that Howard Dean is going to be the Democratic nominee for President. It is almost inevitable. He has earned it. One year ago he was a virtual unknown with few supporters, and little campaign cash. Now he has more volunteers, more campaign cash, and is leading in virtually every public opinion poll (particularly in the early primary and caucus states).

I must admit that early on I had my hopes pinned on John Kerry. Kerry is a decent man who had had a distinguished career in public service. But he has run a dreadful campaign. He started the year with excellent fund raising and and hopes of winning the coveted NH primary. A year later, he has fired his campaign manager, several campaign staffers have quit, he is considering mortgaging him home to compete with Dean’s fundraising prowess, and he is a distant second to Dean in NH polls.

Wesley Clark has also been a disappointment. He has an excellent resume, and would be a strong rival to Bush during a time of war. But despite a big splash in the media following his announcement, he has failed to catch fire. The dozens of Congressional endorsements promised have never materialized. Many activists who would have supported him have already decided on Dean. This late entry has caused Clark to not even try to compete in Iowa. Clark may very well be Dean’s running mate.

Senator John Edwards campaign was simply four or eight years too early. His only political experience is a yet to be finished term in the Senate. That lack of political experience, coupled with his youthful looks, made his candidacy a difficult sell. He managed to raise an impressive amount of money early in the campaign, but has failed to raise much since then from individuals who do not have a pecuniary interest in opposing tort reform. In his quest for the nomination, he has veered to the left politically, making reelection to his Senate seat difficult. He realizes this, and is not seeking reelection.

Congressman Dick Gephardt, like John Kerry, had every thing going for him. His position as Majority Leader and Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, as well as his 1988 presidential campaign, have given him high name identification. He has more supporters in Congress than any other candidate. And he has strong ties with organized labor. Despite these advantages, his campaign is struggling. He is barely leading Dean in Iowa, which he won in 1988. Gephardt has managed to get numerous union endorsements, but Dean has managed to get the backing of two powerful unions, making an AFL-CIO endorsement of him extremely unlikely.

Joe Lieberman probably had the highest name identification of any candidate one year ago. But he has had a hard time convincing Democrats to support him. He is slightly more conservative then most Democrats, which would be advantageous in a general election but is toxic in a Democratic primary. But that isn’t Lieberman’s biggest problem. He just doesn’t look or sound presidential. Lieberman, like Clark, is skipping Iowa.

Al Sharpton is not running really for President. His campaign is simply a ploy to overtake Jesse Jackson as the unofficial leader of Black America and perhaps gain some control of the Democratic party apparatus. His involvement in the Tawanna case make him unfit to hold public office. The voters of New York have rejected his as a candidate four times. The only reason that the DNC is acknowledging this buffoon as a legitimate candidate is the fear that he would cry racism if he were excluded from debates. His campaign is lagging in the polls; the only state where he is breaking double digits is South Carolina.

Carol Moseley Braun is another candidate who has not business running. People are just not buying the argument that they support her simple because she is an African American woman. She was such a failure as a Senator that the voters of Illinois replaced her with the moronic Peter Fitzgerald. At least Fitzgerald has the common sense, unlike Braun did, to know that he was incapable of being reelected, so he is stepping aside for the good of his party. Braun’s candidacy, like Sharpton’s has failed to raise money, attract a significant amount of volunteers, or rise beyond double digits in the polls.

Congressman Dennis Kucinich’s greatest claim to fame is bankrupting the city of Cleveland. This debacle led to the election of a Republican as Mayor of that Democratic city, not a small feat indeed. After spending a few years in the political wilderness, Kucinich returned to politics, being elected to the OH State Senate and later to Congress. He started as a pro-lifer, but his position has ‘evolved’ to strongly pro-choice in time for the presidential campaign. Kucinich led the fight in the House opposing the war in Iraq, but failed to convince enough Democrats to oppose it to in order to block the bill. Many of those who opposed the war have gravitated to Dean’s campaign, frustrating the Ohio Congressman. Dean has done a good job of developing a grassroots base, but has failed to use that base to rise in the polls or raise a significant amount of money.

Not only has Dean raised more money than any of his opponents, he also has far more cash on hand than any other candidate. He is the only candidate who is actually trying to win every single state.

This year’s primary season is the most front-loaded ever. This is not the kind of environment in which a come-from-behind victory is very likely. The nominee will likely be decided by February 7. And that person is Howard Dean. Get used to it.