Will Super Delegates trump the Dean Machine?

[markus]

I've dropped this little stink bomb into a couple of other threads, but it hasn't caught fire yet. However, this is a critical issue that everyone--Dean, Clark, Kerry, or Other--needs to be thinnking about as we lurch toward the early primaries and caucuses.

I started this discussion earlier in another thread, but it's now three pages doesn in GD.

Forty percent of the delegates to the convention are already "selected", and their intentions are unknown. Many are in Congress and would be as likely to support Gephardt or Kerry. Others are party officials. Remember that stirring reception Dean received at the DNC annual meeting last year? These people don't like insurgent outsiders.

Both the elected officials and party nomenklatura are going to ahve a problem with an "insurgent" candidate like Dean, who threatens their own power base. In fact, Super Delegates were created specifically to give our own nomenklatura veto power over voter selected delegates.

Here's an inteseting article on the subject, still up at MSNBC. http://www.msnbc.com/news/912997.asp

Now, the interesting question: Dean shows up with less than 50% of the delegates. This is virtually guaranteed, as 40% already selected and have good reason to dislike Dean or feel threatened by him.

I really think this is the Clinton/Clark strategy (Bill's not Hillary's; she wouldn't like waiting until 20012 to run). Get the super delegates behind the highly electable and mallable Clark.

We get a Clintonesque Democrat. We get gid of Bush. Life is wonderful. We ship all our jobs to India and Malaysia, and we all sell insurance and cell phones to each other from kiosks at Wall Mart. Ok, the last part is a bit wild, but not far off the truth.

Unless Dean is aggresively courting the super delegates, and getting public commitments from national committee men and women and other party sorts, he is in danger of not winning the nomination no matter how well he does in the run up to the convention.

[goobergunch]

1. Dean's doing pretty well, in fact

According to my delegate count (which will be updated this afternoon when I get home from school), at least.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

16. Can you share with us?

n/t

[goobergunch]

20. Click the link in my sig to the Goobergunch Political Report (n/t)

[tlb]

2. I have always believed the DNC/DLC will throw behind Gephardt

and deliver him the nomination at the convention.

[Bombtrack]

4. First of all, the DNC and DLC don't act uniformly

it's a pretty schizophrenic organization. But if your saying that a majority of the party will embrace Gephardt to challange Dean, they won't, they'd be idiots to. This rumor has been promoted by the right because Dean and Gephardt are the 2 weakest general election candidates and the GOP would love for them to be the last 2 standing

The majority of the party is smart enough to not make the race between 2 middle class tax raisers

[JNelson6563]

3. who's got super-delegate info?

Ithought I read somewhere that 17 of Michigan's super-delegates have committed to Dean. Anyone know about this? Other states?

Julie

[goobergunch]

22. I haven't heard that

But that doesn't mean it isn't true.

[9119495]

5. Not gonna happen

The Democratic party leaders might be mad as hell at the prospect of a Dean win, but the reality is, they know they can't alienate supporters on the left because they know the Greens played a huge role in 2000. The Super Delegates, in my view, will behave like state electors in the presidential election--they will accept the results of the other delegate counts and vote appropriately. Remember, in all likelyhood the nominee will be decided early. Candidates will drop rapidly after just the first few contests and the push to unify will be on. For as much bickering between say Dean and Kerry camps here, others aren't feeling it. I canvas for Dean and Kerry supporters have ALL said they will support Dean if he gets the Nomination. ALL Dean people I know personally would support Kerry against Bush.

Whoever wins, these guys, no matter how angry they seem towards each other will be out in force campaigning for them in the general election. Speeches, ad appearances, etc.

[theboss]

6. But will McAuliffe hand out the cash

McAuliffe is the interesting figure in all this. If Dean wins, he likely loses . . and to an extent so do the Clintons.

[sybylla]

10. I don't see McAuliffe nor the DNC have a choice in the matter

If Dean wins, he has the support of the majority of Dems. The DNC exists because of these very same Democrats. If McAuliffe and the DNC have a hissy fit and refuse to dole out the cash, how many Dems will still be DNC Dems when the sun comes up?

They act like that and the greenies may just get their wish for a third party, overnight.

[sangh0]

12. "If Dean wins"??

Dean has to get more than 50% of the delegates to "win". How likely is that?

After months of slogging in IA and NH, Dean still isn't hitting 50% in those two (small) states. If he can't do it there, what makes you think he can do it across the country.

[realFedUp]

15. if Dean wins in Iowa and New Hampshire....

But Sabato added that if Dean wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, the party elders probably would not be able to stop him.

[sangh0]

19. Yes and no

Dean has to not just win, but sweep IA and NH in the hopes that it will help him in the South. Remember, with 40% of the delegates uncommitted, Dean needs 50% out of the 60% left over. Dean needs 50/60ths (about 83%) of ALL primaries to get to 50% of the delegates.

What are the odds of that?

[depakid]

7. They'd also better know

that not only Greens, but many independents and new voters will be alienated by any more such shenanigans. If the party establishment didn't learn this lesson from the Mondale fiasco in 1984, then they have only themselves to blame.

Only a populistuprising has a chance to take down Bush (along with the Republicans majorites in the House & in the state legislatures). It's going to be done by a nationalized campaign of the type which Dean is prepared to wage- or not at all. That you can count on.

[GalleryGod]

14. If Big Dawg sez We Axe Dean.Chop-Chop

:kick: There will be no replay of 1972...if the polls show it could happen. But never underestimate the IGMFU Crowd!

Love these "Real World" Stink Bombs!

Way to shake-up the Cyber Bunkers!

IN-coming!





:loveya:

[Hep]

8. If the party elite want to think they know what's best for me

They'll find out how I take it when I stay away from the polls.

[sangh0]

13. Might as well just vote for Bush*

it's the next best thing to voting for Dean.

[Scott Lee]

21. Oh yeah - antiwar, pro union, pro gay marriage, universal health...

Suuuure sounds like "Bush" to me.

LOL, thanks for hanging around sangh0. You are always amusing, kinda like the court jester.

[sangh0]

25. Be honest

Dean is not anti-war. Both Dean and many of his supporters say this

Dean SAYS he is "pro-union", but I never hear about what he's done for labor. Besides talk, that is

Dean is NOT pro-gay marriage. He even said that he was "uncomfortable" with the idea

[Eloriel]

37. We Dean supporters know all that, Sangh0

And we know what you pretend not to know: that Dean has been a good friend of labor, fighting for nurses in VT to organize, for example.

In any case, there are a couple of nice big unions who like him a lot.

Eloriel

[mmonk]

9. sounds like

a conspiracy theory. Don't think that would happen.

[chaska]

11. What I heard.

"We get a Clintonesque Democrat. We get gid of Bush. Life is wonderful."

Sounds like a good start.

[markus]

26. You didn't read the rest of that paragraph, did you

Do you want the cell phone kiosk, or the insurance kiosk?

[mikehiggins]

17. If Dean doesn't walk into the convention

with the nomination in his pocket, he won't leave with it.

And what happens then?

Do the Deanites go home, or do they vote third party or for *?

Interesting scenario.

If McCauliffe and the boys are absolutely convinced Dean will go down in flames during the general election do they have the balls to try and broker a deal to put Clark in, or Gore?

We'll see...

If Dean DOES have the necessary number of votes to win on the first ballot before he enters the convention, what do the "insiders" do then?

[theboss]

18. They could no what they did to McGovern

McGovern had the nomination locked down by the first ballot. The Party couldn't stop him at that point. But they could sit out the general election. That means no fundraising, no getting out the vote, no endorsements until the last minute.

The last few elections have shown that turnout is as important as it has ever been. The country is pretty polarized so it's a matter of which base gets to the polls. The Union bosses could go low-key and doom Dean.

It's going to be fascinating if you like the Inside Baseball part of politics. And I do.

[killbotfactory]

23. Only if they want to piss off a lot of committed people

Who hand over lots of money.

[denverbill]

24. If that happens, the party is finished.

If Dean gets the nod from the majority of voters in the majority of states, the party morons better understand that Dean will be the candidate, or I will sure as hell never vote Democratic again.

Ain't no two ways about it.

[oasis]

27. If Bush wins in 2004, you won't be voting again period.

[markus]

28. Geez, why do the flame fests draw more attention that this discussion

of the nutes and bolts of how to win a nomination and an election?

Hell, whoever you support, if you're not thinking in these terms already, you're doomed.

That said, as a sort of, mostly leaning Dean sort of guy, I wonder if drafting a resolution for the state convention binding the super delegates to the outcome of the state party convention (under penalty of no party office, no future endorsement) would go.

I can just see the look on the face of out two National Comittee people (one of whom is declared for Clark already) now.

[sangh0]

29. A state can't "bind" the super delegates

they don't have any authority over the super-delegates. I'm no expert on the convention rules or primaries, so there might be a loophole somewhere, but I doubt it. The super-delegates, being political insiders, know how to protect themselves and their power, and I doubt they wrote the rules in a way that allows them to be deposed.

[markus]

32. As a former District Chair

and thereby member of the North Dakota State Executive Committee, I have a nice, dusty set of rules somewhere.

Unless the DNC has some nasty trick by which they could not seat a delegation that did it, I don't see why the delegates to the state convention couldn't deny party office (National Committee Person in particular) or deny future endorsements (and thereby state and national funds) to someone.

Sure, they can do whatever the hell they way. And they can get their soft money for re-election or their trips to DC to schmooze some other way.

It would go against the whole mushy feel good Democratic resolution and platform thing.

But I'm pissed, and I am not as interested in making friends as I am in defeating my enemies.

[Upfront]

34. Like Wise

Don't think it would happen, but you never know.

[denverbill]

30. Where did 'super-delegates' come from anyway?

How long have they existed? Do both parties have them? It's odd but I never recall hearing of them before this year.

[markus]

33. Super Delegates were created to prevent another McGovern

Does this start to sound frighteningly relevant?

[depakid]

40. and they gave us Mondale

who had NO CHANCE from the outset in a match up against Reagan. Hart on the other hand may well have won that election had he been the nominee.

[BuelahWitch]

31. Why don't the damn Dems want to back a winner????

Don't they see how much support Dean has raised? While I don't want Bush in for another four years, and will vote for any Dem running against him, others will just stay home. The Dems are committing political suicide if they run somebody like Gephardt against Bush (I'm going by the Superdelegate report on the Goobergunch website).

This "Gephardt is entitled" stuff is BS. If not Dean, then run someone like Clark or even Kerry who can excite the electorate. Gephardt won't do that.

[oasis]

35. I'll back the Democrat who emerges victorious from the covention. If

it's someone I don't particularly care for right now, I'll relax and give him a chance to grow on me. Who knows? the VP choice may be their best selling point.

Bottom line, I'm not going to sit on the sidelines and let GWB have a cakewalk back to the White House.

[Closer]

36. Well thanks for this nonetheless

I've sent the information to the Dean camp, just in case, but I'm sure they're on top of it. But if they weren't, they will be now.\

thanks

[slinkerwink]

43. yep, they have----they've asked us to donate to Cong. Boswell

to show that we have coattails ;-)

[arewethereyet]

38. in a word, yes

in several words, you're damn straight that they will do everything they can to place an electable candidate out there, there is too much at stake.

Edwards could easily be that guy.

[Closer]

39. Oh Please

Hell, Edwards couldn't even win re-election in his own state for Senate had he tried. Moreover, even in NC, he's still behind Bush like 20 points or more.

On top of this, he's failed to ignite the Democrats, and he's still single digits in almost every poll. He's raised hardly ANY money this year and his future is bleak.


Edwards would NOT be that man.

[arewethereyet]

41. I seem to recall another guy with an accent coming from nowhere

it aint over till its over

[Closer]

42. HAHA

I don't dislike Edwards, but trust me, he AIN'T no Clinton. LOL nice try though.

[arewethereyet]

44. true, better. no baggage.

I'm patient, we'll see.

[Walt Starr]

45. If the superdelegates decide the primary voters are wrong

then it proves to me that the Democratic Party leadership doesn't care what the rank and file thinks.

If that's the case, I'm done with the Democratic Party and will do everything in my power to bring as many other Democrats with me out of the party.

The GOP handed over all decision making regarding this shit to the party leadership. You see what that shit got them.