Is There Really A Difference Between An Iowa Dem And An Oklahoma Dem?

[THUNDER HANDS]

I'm trying to wrap my head around why the prevailing wisdom is that either some combination of Dean, Kerry or Gephardt is going to wind up taking Iowa and New Hampshire and some other candidate like Clark, Lieberman or Edwards is going to do well in states like Arizona, Oklahoma or South Carolina.

Is there really that much of a difference between registered Democrats in these states?

I can understand how in the general election, some states are more conservative than others - but why in a primary would a state have more conservative democrats than other states?

If you're going to register as a Democrat, and take the time and effort to go out and vote - aren't you supposed to be at least slightly left-of-center?

I'm curious to ask folks who live in these more southern and midwestern states. Are the Democrats there - the voting Democrats - not the politicians, more conservative than Democrats in Northeast states?

Or is that just a myth - like I imagine - because a Democrat is a Democrat is a Democrat - no matter what part of the country they live in.

Hmm? :shrug:

[RummyTheDummy]

1. Interesting post.

I'm from Oklahoma and never really took the time to think about this. I suspect Okie dems are on the conservative side. I'm more middle of the road.

Iowa seems to be more of an activist state which tells me it might be a little more left leaning.

[jmaier]

2. Look at past primary histories

I can't speak to actual differences between registered democrats in various primary states but past history shows that there are state and regional discrepancies. How did Tsongas do so well in NH or Harkin in IA and then do so poorly elsewhere.

Not all primaries are the same. Some states have open primaries that allow independents and republicans cross over to vote in the democratic primary. Those states will definitely favor a more centrist candidate.

If you're trying to simply imply that Dean is doing great in IA and NH so he MUST then do well everywhere else because all democrats are basically the same, that is not a very thoughtful premise. History and state primary structural differences tell us otherwise.

BTW, I'm not saying that Dean can't do well in OK, SC, etc. Only that this line of reasoning isn't why he may. :-)

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. No, i wasn't implying that

If you're trying to simply imply that Dean is doing great in IA and NH so he MUST then do well everywhere else because all democrats are basically the same, that is not a very thoughtful premise. History and state primary structural differences tell us otherwise.

I'm just trying to figure out why people who've taken the time to register, and take part in Democratic primaries, would be significantly more conservative than people who do the same things in other states?

Take Utah for example. I bet Utah will never vote Democrat in a general election in my lifetime. But that's because Republicans severely outnumber Democrats.

But if you just took Utah democrats as an example, are they, on a whole, more conservative than, say, Texas democrats or Florida democrats?

And if so - why?

If they've rejected the Republican party, probably because it's too conservative, why would they still look for a more conservative democrat as opposed to someone who stands in sharp contrast to what's dominating their state now?

[democratreformed]

14. Could it be

the difference in exposure of particular candidates? Voters in Iowa have been the focus of many campaigns for many months now while many other states have barely seen them.

[dude93]

3. no difference

There is no difference between Iowans (which I happen to be) and Oklahomans. Us real Liberals have to go out East to do anything. Here the Dems are "too busy" to be involved which is BS in my book because what they are saying is that they are far busier then people in New York City or Boston. Also, they are more conservative then liberal because they do not like change around here. Where I live (sioux City), they are still stuck in this God-awful 1950's mindset. Pitiful......

[ScreamingMeemie]

10. Welcome to DU dude93!

Good to meet you. :)

[newyawker99]

12. Hi dude93!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[kentuck]

4. When you think of Oklahoma, think of Alabama...

they are both deep South.

[OKNancy]

6. Oklahoma has little in common with deep south states

n/t

[OKNancy]

5. Because the whole history of the state is totally different

Not only history, but the economy, and the make-up of the settlers.

Without going into a long history lesson, Oklahoma wasn't a state until 1907. Populist Democrats have always done better here. Did you know that Eugene V. Debs got 33% of the vote in Oklahoma?

We have really two states here, the west with agriculture being strong, and the eastern part - timber and the government providing most of the income. ( I'm not counting Tulsa and OKC. )

Oklahomans tend to like "good-old boys" The kind that will spin a yarn at the coffee shop or the courthouse. One of my main reasons for not supporting Dean is that I know with 100% certainty that if he is the Dem candidate, I might as well stay home.

Oh, I almost forgot......Southern Baptists!! How could I forget that. Dean doesn't have a prayer.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

7. Answer this question: Could Tom Harkin win in Oklahoma?

:dem:

[HFishbine]

9. It may depend on where the "center" is

Being left of center in Oklahoma may be a little easier than being left of center in California.

[CO Liberal]

11. They Have to Look in Different Directions to See Kansas

:-)

[Jai4WKC08]

13. At least some democrats are independent at heart

The more conservative states have more voters who are not die-hard Democrats, but vote that way because of how seriously loony the Repubs have gotten. Many who voted for Bush in 2000 bought his phoney "I am a uniter" line and thought he would hold the religious right at bay. I hope they will see the error of their ways, but the fear of terrorism and desire for a strong defense is still important to them.

I live in Kansas, and here it's the Republican party that is split between the moderates and the conservatives. We Dems are far outnumbered, but we sometimes win (have a Dem governor now) because the moderate Repubs are more afraid of the right-wingers than they are of us.

Moderates of both parties can and do cross-over under the right (or wrong) circumstances.

[Rowdyboy]

15. Southern Democratic primary voters are MUCH

more centrist/conservative than Eastern or midwestern Dems. Playing to that is the only way the candidates stand a chance at winning.