How can Kerry win the nomination?

[Bread and Circus]

This is a serious question...

We know Dean's path...the media keeps shoving it down our throat...

Gep may gain with a win in IA....

Clark may win yet if he gets SC and a few other Southern states...

So how does Kerry pull it off, strategically?

All bashes aside.

[molly]

1. Ever play Stratego or Battleship?

logic and cunning!

[Hep]

2. Kill the other candidates

I once wrote a short story abouta kid who killed off his academically superior classmates so he could be valedictorian. That's what Kerry will have to do IMO.

[frank frankly]

5. hahaha, or, LOL

okay, that was funny

[mb7588a]

26. Kinda hard to judge academic superiority in this race...

:P

Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards - lots of education stacked in there.

[poskonig]

3. How will *Clark* win the nomination?

Edwards is certainly giving him a run for his money down in SC. Making a stand in North Dakota isn't going to cut it either.

[Bread and Circus]

7. True, true...I am not bashing Kerry....I am just searching for his...

angle...

And yes, Clark has a lot to do to win!

[mmonk]

4. Kerry needs quality air time

without pundits.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Patience

Kerry's lined up some impressive support from experienced and knowledgable leaders. He's by far the most qualified candidate, and most of those supporters know it. They want to reward him for all he's done for most all of his life for Democratic causes.

Kerry just needs to make the case to a broader audience. Recent polls in Iowa have been very encouraging in that regard. So just give it time. Not a vote's been cast.

[BayCityProgressive]

8. My opinion is

that Kerry is done. Stick a fork in him. He cannot connect to voters or voters do not like his message. I think people are in an angry anti-Washington mood. I think Edwards and Gephardt are also done. Although they have a better chance than Kerry. Lieberman is going nowhere thank God. Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton although I liek them, have never been real contenders. I think the race will come down to Dean and Clark. I think the primary will be extremely close because Clark will take the southern states, Dean will take the North East and the Left coast ;-) . Whichever one wins the most midwestern states I think will win the nomination. I think these two should be on the ticket together, regardless of who is nominated.

[molly]

10. ONLY on DU - the rest of the world

is a tad bit more realistic and mature and smart and saavy.

[Forkboy]

24. LMAO---you gotta be kidding me

the rest of the world is a tad bit more realistic and mature and smart and saavy.

Hey,when all else fail insult the intelligence of DUers...that'll help your cause :crazy:

[mmonk]

27. DU isn't main street in the heartland

[Forkboy]

32. no kidding

[mmonk]

33. though I don't like

the smart and saavy comments

[poskonig]

9. Stopping Dean is everyone's problem.

The problem-- Dean will win NH, and probably Iowa. How does one stop him in February? For example, in the first week, SC, Oklahoma, Delaware, Missouri, North Dakota, Michigan, Arizona, and New Mexico are up for grabs. Dean already is amassing organization in Arizona, New Mexico, and Michigan.

If Kerry doesn't win NH, I don't see any possible scenario where he wins. Clark and Edwards also have serious problems -- they each need to win Oklahoma and SC and work from there. But that doesn't do much good if the Dean Borg is gobbling up the rest of the states.

Gephardt is in the best anti-Dean position, and if the establishment were smart, they'd push Edwards, Holy Joe, and Kerry out, and put all of their weight behind the Gepster. If Gep takes Iowa, he would win Missouri obviously, along with SC, Michigan, Oklahoma, and North Dakota, which would make things really interesting.

[Cha]

12. Yeah..."really interesting"...

[Jim Sagle]

37. You're giving away the plan.

;-)

[Closer]

13. Shhhhhhh

you're telling too much ;-)

[BayCityProgressive]

15. Is it true that Gephardt is having money problems?

I am not sure if it is but we need a strong fund raiser to go against Bush. Dean and Edwards can both raise lots of money.

[Closer]

20. Yes

I've heard he's only raised around 750k this quarter.


Dean -> 7-10 million this quarter alone.


You do the math.

[poskonig]

22. That's also why we need to take him out of play in Iowa.

Gephardt getting 50 million dollars in free airtime changes things radically. While if he loses, he has no loot, and can't do well in the Gephardt friendly states on superTuesday, including Missouri.

[Jim Sagle]

11. Stab the other candidates to death with his chin.

[jsw_81]

14. The Ketchup fortune

But unfortunately for Mr. Kerry there are all kinds of restrictions on how much he's allowed to spend.

[BayCityProgressive]

16. I know I will be flamed but...

Kerry just reminds me of Gore. The media could easily paint him in the same light. I guess they will do a hatchet job on any of our candidates though.

[molly]

18. The Ketchup fortune?

is this what Kerry's extensive and impressive public record boils down to?

[mb7588a]

29. Zing.

[Algorem]

25. So he can't be a hot dog with the ketchup dough?

He needs some sizzle or he's gonna get panned.

[salinen]

31. I found an old bottle

the other day. It was stamped H.J. Heinz on the bottom. The bottle was produced sometime between 1904 and 1909. This has nothing to do with anything. Sorry.

[Forkboy]

34. lol

[arewethereyet]

17. maybe this way

OK he won't win NH but he needs to make a good showing and nail 2nd. Then stay repsectable and hope Gep nails Dean in Iowa.

Then Dean has to finally put his foot in it so badly people can't not notice. I thought that he had done this a dozen times or more but apparantly its not enough just yet.

Clark is fizzling IMO so if Kerry can just hang around then he's not a bad back up plan. Trouble is, so is Edwards Gep or even smokin Joe Lieberman. But at least its a fair fight and he is a good pol.

Best I can come up with on short notice.

[BayCityProgressive]

19. Maybe Gep

will have an edge in the rust belt now that Bush is repealing the tariffs. This could help him with the unions there....

[jsw_81]

21. There is no way Kerry can survive a defeat in New Hampshire

His entire campaign strategy is built on winning there. And Iowa is several days before New Hampshire.

[DrFunkenstein]

23. Iowa Is A 3-Man Race, Kerry Becomes Anti-Dean With FP Experience

Which works out nicely since Kerry is actually the best man for the job.

Kerry places second in Iowa, and takes New Hampshire after people realize that Dean is fodder for Rove.

Watch as the "Dated Dean, Married Kerry" process unfolds.

Not surprisingly, the Dean people here are trying desperately to create the illusion of inevitability. Listen to how many times they suggest that the race is sewn up, despite clear evidence that it is extremely fluid.

Plus, Kerry has now begun to go on the offensive just as Dean is starting to play defensively. And people are going to get tired of Dean harping on the IWR when everybody else wants to hear what we need to do now.

And, as we have proven repeatedly, Dean is not a whole lot without the IWR and his campaign doo-dads. And I have yet to hear even Deanies suggest that Dean could beat Kerry in a real debate. The best Dean has done so far in the debates is not lose. By my score, Kerry and Clark have won the vast majority of debates since September.

PS - I actually like Clark as a person, and could muster actual enthusiasm for his nomination, but I still don't see him jumping the VP hurdle. I'm not sure if it is his lack of domestic experience, or his poorly handled campaign, but Clark needs to take things up a notch to make a mark where it matters. And unless he wins decisively in SC over Edwards, he is not going anywhere.

So, despite all the DU straw polls to the contrary, this race is pretty much wide open for Kerry to pull out of the pack if he keeps up the level of intensity he is at now.

[mb7588a]

30. DrF, you stole my brain.

:toast: :toast:

[oasis]

36. Bravo!!!

[Lexingtonian]

38. that's pretty much it

I don't see what the big deal about winning the Iowa caucuses. Very few delegates and relatively few voters are involved, it's always all about organization and political debts to unions. Of course no one wants to do badly, but the real stakes are only in PR.

New Hampshire...it's a real contest but I wouldn't place any serious bets on that outcome before New Year's, let alone what it means. So far polling there reflects the amount of relative effort expended rather than real choices made on substance.

I don't know about "the anti-Dean" notion; it's not really a race about ideas in any significant way, it's about who gets trusted to do the right things before and then in office, and about winning overall. A month from now Bush will be rather more desperate even and his polling numbers understood to be in the unelectable range. That's when Dean and his frenetic following start looking difficult to bear and no longer particularly useful, skillful, or good stewards of the public trust. Let alone winning the Culture War.

It's a little sad to watch the Clark campaign; there just hasn't been real followup on the very promising beginnings. As for Edwards, I'm not convinced he's all that serious about winning the nomination this year. Gephardt is not going far beyond Iowa. Lieberman is just hanging on, hoping for some kind of vindication and new life in the primaries around New York City.

[Adjoran]

28. Scenario for each major candidate to win.

No one has yet voted. National polls show that while Dean is the frontrunner, he has not amassed anything like an unstoppable following. So there is a chance for several candidates to win.

I'm not predicting anything, so please don't think I am. I am just envisioning a possible scenario for each to win the nomination. Dean is leading, so we don't have to think hard about how he could win.

Gephardt = Win Iowa, which would also cinch Missouri on Feb 3 (he's the favorite, popular in his home state). Fight hard for at least 3rd in SC and 2nd in NM or AZ. Try to win OK. As other candidates drop out, he could become the "stop Dean" guy and benefit from the people who don't want Dean.

Clark = 3rd in NH, win SC (he's leading slightly over Edwards now, but it is still anybody's contest), finish at least 2nd in OK, NM, and AZ. As other candidates drop out, become the "stop Dean" guy.

Kerry = 3rd in Iowa, improve his finish in NH enough to surprise the pundits and press. Hang on as others fall off. He can get the money. He does have some personal wealth (sorry, can't spend the wife's, it isn't legal), but sitting Senators with seniority can get contributions when they need them. As with the others, try to become the "stop Dean" guy. His prospects aren't nearly so good as they were six months ago, though.

Edwards = needs to surprise with a better than predicted finish in Iowa or NH, must win SC. Needs some luck, others to shoot themselves in the foot.

[OneBlueSky]

35. one outside chance . . .

go after corporations, corporate personhood, and ending corporate governance in a BIG way . . . people KNOW that corporations control everything, and they also KNOW that no politician is ever going to do anything about it . . . imagine if a candidate actually took this on as his signal issue . . . the media would go nuts, the right wing would have fits, and the PEOPLE would, for the most part, stand up and cheer! . . . it's a long shot, but at this point he needs one of them Doug Flutie passes . . .

if any Kerry supporters/volunteers/staff are interested in a crash course on the issue of ending corporate governance, they can start here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=773912

will he do it? . . . nah . . . when it comes to corporate dollars, he's just as dependent and just as chicken shit as the rest of 'em . . . but it sure would be nice if he proved me wrong! . . .

[JPace]

39. I favored Kerry from the start but....

he does not seem to have what it takes to
overcome Dean's charisma, appeal and message.
I should also throw in Dean's energy, the man
simply has it in spades and everyone else
seems lackluster next to him.

I am not unhappy with this, I will happily
vote for anyone of the candidates who wins
the nomination. I think the only thing that
will stop Dean is if he self destructs by
saying or doing something stupid. It won't
be fair because the repug owned media lets
bush get away with anything, but when the
time comes to destroy Dean they will do the
same to him that they did to Clinton and I
don't know how he will overcome that.

[DrFunkenstein]

40. Actually, The Word On Dean Is His Cold Bedside Manners

The media repeatedly talk about his detached, ironic manner -- which plays well for smarty-pants liberals, but not much else. I've heard that Dean doesn't have a "warm and fuzzy" personality, so I'm not alone in thinking that. I'll grant that he has energy, but I can't say where the line between outrage and inner-rage is drawn.

Your self-destruct theory plays directly into my sense that Dean will play defense from now on, just as people are (barely) starting to pay attention.

And the handwriting is on the wall about exactly how Rove will turn Dean out without breaking sweat.

[CWebster]

41. Well

He can't. That is obvious.