Kerry, Clark and Gephardt are not dropping out.

[WilliamPitt]

Ain't nobody dropping out after New Hampshire, unless their names are Kucinich, Sharpton or Moseley-Braun.

Here's the deal for Gephart:

Monday, Jan. 19:

Iowa

Tuesday, Jan. 27:

New Hampshire

Tuesday, Feb. 3:

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Saturday, Feb. 7:

Michigan
Washington

The states in bold are ones Gephardt will do very well in. Dean is making it a dofight in Iowa, but Missouri is home for Gep, while Oklahoma and North Dakota are close neighbors and he will have a distinct advantage there. Michigan will be a dogfight because Gep's traditional union support will collide with Dean's recent massive union endorsements. Gep also has enough money to last a while; he will survive New Hampshire, because the next week will see him do very well.

Kerry also has enough money to last beyond New Hampshire, though losing that state will be a torpedo below the water-line as far as press coverage goes. Dean has a 30 point edge there now, according to Zogby, and the Dean campaign is dropping several thousands ground-pounding campaigners into the state at the beginning of January. Kerry has enough cash on hand, however, to keep going. He will.

Clark is being backed by the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party, i.e. the folks running the party. He'll have all the money he needs for as long as it seems worthwhile for him to keep running.

New Hampshire is considered a bellweather state, and journalists who have to write *something* will make all kinds of predictions once the deal goes down. But Dean will have to deal with Gep, Kerry and Clark for a while after...and Gephart looks to be the strongest challenger, based on the primary schedule. Go figure.

[Zomby Woof]

1. some of those states cancelled

I know Washington did, because they are strapped for cash (like every other state). Unless there is some unofficial balloting going on.

I don't know, I live in one of the early primary states, where it does count. I'll be voting my conscience, and not for one of the anointed frontrunners sanitized for our protection... might as well before the vultures circle...

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. Washington is the only state the only one to cancel their primary

But they are still having a caucus.

[Zomby Woof]

51. thanks!

I don't live there anymore, so I lost touch with what happened. :-)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. "Kerry, Clark and Gephardt are not going anywhere"

good thing you changed that title, I was about to unleash heavy ammo. :)

[Closer]

3. Yes

but one very important thing you're not noting is Gephardt's money, or lack thereof.


I've heard from a few different sources he's only raised 750k so far this quarter.

Dean has raised probably upwards of 8-10 million (or more) so far just this quarter. He's gonna figuratively BITCH SLAP Gephardt in Iowa spending in the coming weeks.


As I noted in an earlier post, money talks, and in this case, it screams.

[Zomby Woof]

6. or as Dylan said

Money doesn't talk, it swears.

[WilliamPitt]

7. Iowa, maybe

Dean will need all that cash to overcome Gep's native advantage, and it'll be nip and tuck the whole way. Is Dean blasting Missouri? Doubt it. That's Gep's home state. Is Dean blasting North Dakota and Oklahoma? He'll have to, to overcome Gep momentum after that primary series.

All I'm saying is that this isn't over.

[w13rd0]

11. As a Missourian...

...don't overestimate his homeroom popularity. In Saint Louis, his district, he's been re-elected because he gets the job down for the unions in his district, and, in all fairness, does fairly well for unions period. But there's a fair amount of resentment toward him among democrats statewide because he didn't bring enough home, as majority leader, for missouri as a whole...in terms of seats gained or lost, that sorta thing...

[WilliamPitt]

20. Yes, but Gep has a machine in MO that has been there for a while.

Who votes? Union members, teachers...and Dean supporters. That's about it. Close.

[Eloriel]

26. Gep just had a BIG, bad, nasty thing happen on his home turf today

See this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=251414

And while you're at it, be SURE to read the link posted in the thread to the riverfronttimes article about this woman. It really rounds out the picture of how BIG this flap really is.

Eloriel

[sistersofmercy]

33. First of all, the RFT is no longer considered a good political paper since

Ray Hartman is no longer owner and editor. The unions will resolve their conflict and I consider the little supposed squabble to be a little bit of "dirty pool" playing by a certain group of supporters of another candidate.

[Freddie Stubbs]

48. Lots of other newpapers are reporting this story also

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gephardt4dec04,1,2387226.story?coll=la-home-nation

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/04/politics/campaigns/04LABO.html?ex=1071118800&en=67ec2988c0a90b09&ei=5062

If it were dirty pool on the part of another campaign, Gephardt's campaign should deny that it happened. But they didn't.

[GumboYaYa]

43. I've been on the ground canvassing MO for the past

month and a half. I know for a fact that there are far more undecided voters in my part of St. Louis County than there are Gephardt supporters.


You would not believe how many people here in St. Louis say they can't stand Gephardt.

[Closer]

12. Understand

But the point is, if Dean does, in fact win Iowa and NH, he's gonna be damned hard to stop.

At that point, North Dakota and Missouri won't matter much. No offense.

[WilliamPitt]

18. No doubt, no doubt

The media coverage after an Iowa and New Hampshire win will be huge. He will be dubbed the Instant Front-Runner.

What does the media like to do to front-runners, just to give them something to write about?

Chop down front-runners.

"Frontrunner Dean Shocked by Gephart Victories" <--- Headlines one week after NH.

[Closer]

23. LOL

You win :hi:


It ain't gonna happen, but you win. LOL

[HFishbine]

36. Front Runners

And another downside to being a front runner are the high expectations. A third or fourth place finish in South Carolina would be a big negative for a supposed front runner.

[Freddie Stubbs]

52. Even if Gephardt does win Iowa

His campaign isn't going to be able to take advantage of the momentum. Eight days later is NH, and it is becomeing abundantly clear Dean is not only going to win that but win big. But the biggest factor is going to be money. Dean will have the money to run ads for weeks in the state holding primaries on February 3. Gephardt is going to have to spend all of his money in Iowa.

If he were able to win Iowa his campaign would certainly see an infusion of cash. But with only two and a half weeks between Iowa and the Febraury 3 primaries, Gephardt won't have enough time to make effective use of that money.

[JohnKleeb]

14. of course it aint over Will and I find it sad we have to tell people this

Honestly there hasnt been one single primary, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN remember that, and yes I know that my candiate has a slim chance but a chance is a chance, and I wanna try. Now of course its far from over. If you want it to be about who has the most money :eyes: I am sorry but I dont like things being about green, thats one thing my grandfather taught me.

[wtmusic]

16. Bless you JK

this place needs a diehard idealist. Twenty years ago I'd be stumping for Dennis too.

[JohnKleeb]

19. idealist is what I am

Thanks. I am an idealist honestly and I am proudly idealistic,

[Forkboy]

22. Have you gotten the "you're too idealistic" talk yet?

My dad gave me that a lot (and still does).I've never figured out what's bad about that :shrug:

[JohnKleeb]

24. Hell dude my dad thinks its great

Whats so bad about being idealistic? What a true question, I wonder too Fork. I will say a quote I love to use, "some men see things as they are and ask why, I dream of things that never were and say why not", That was originally by Shaw and later used by RFK, and its true, why not is such a great motto.

[Forkboy]

25. I love that quote too

I always answer my dad by telling him he isn't idealistic enough :)

[JohnKleeb]

27. Yep, I understand pragmatism and realism but come on

We need an idealistic batch.

[KoKo]

42. Hey John, I'm a Dean/Kucinich and just gave a little more to Dennis!

Cause he needs it to stay in......and I'm way older than you! Give to Idealism so that it has a chance to thrive, I say. Particularly in these cynical times. I'm glad we had a Kucinich and a Moseley-Braun and that we had all those debates which people criticized as boring. It helped keep voices we need alive, even the ones we didn't support had something we needed to hear for better or worse.

[JohnKleeb]

44. Thats great

We need to have people like him stay in, I am sick of these threads telling people to drop out of the race, wait for there to be a primary. People may not know but with all the shit that goes on, I get mad too, I truly do, I dont know why I hold it in, but I do, I have a poem in the lounge now if you wanna see it, not exactly how I feel completely but kinda strikes a note, I think we are gonna suprise people in Iowa that is Kucinich campaign, seen a fair amount of Kucinich support around here, which is great.

[molly]

17. JohnKleeb - I admire you

you have been supportive of your candidate while fair to others. You are what we should all be about.

[JohnKleeb]

21. What people dont realize I get just as mad as any of you too

Its hell but I deal. Personally although some candiates would be more for my personal liking, I think its gonna be simply great to get Bush out, now the only thing we disagree on who should do it, I cant wait to get Bush out, thats gonna be a good time, I am gonna be 17 1/2 by then, viva la liberation everyone.

[Freddie Stubbs]

47. Gephardt's people are getting worried about Missouri too

Union Leaders Warned by Gephardt Aide
Joyce Aboussie vowed retaliation if officials aided Dean in her boss' state, Missouri. The hopeful 'knew nothing about it,' his camp says.
By Mark Z. Barabak
Times Staff Writer

December 4, 2003

A top aide to Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri threatened political retaliation this week against union leaders in the home state of the Democratic presidential candidate if they aided Howard Dean, underscoring growing tensions in the 2004 race.

Gephardt, who is running for president as a champion of organized labor, sought Wednesday to distance himself from the incident. Without denying that it occurred, aides to Gephardt said he did not condone the comments made by Joyce Aboussie, his national campaign vice chair, at a Monday meeting in St. Louis. The aides also said he was not aware of her statements until after the fact.

"The meeting was not authorized by Congressman Gephardt," said Kim Molstre, a campaign spokeswoman in Washington. "Joyce was not acting as a representative for him. He knew nothing about it."

Aboussie agreed in a separate statement. Without denying the remarks attributed to her, she apologized "if anyone felt threatened" by her words.

more: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gephardt4dec04,1,7517543,print.story?coll=la-home-nation

Those aren't the actions of a campaign that is very confident of victory in MO.

[knight_of_the_star]

4. Also

Clark is getting some VERY solid grassroots support all over the place. Don't be surprised if he pulls off wins based on that alone in some states.

[jsw_81]

5. Kerry

Kerry also has enough money to last beyond New Hampshire, though losing that state will be a torpedo below the water-line as far as press coverage goes. Dean has a 30 point edge there now, according to Zogby, and the Dean campaign is dropping several thousands ground-pounding campaigners into the state at the beginning of January. Kerry has enough cash on hand, however, to keep going. He will.

No, he won't. For John Kerry to lose New Hampshire would be like Bush losing Texas. It will be the death blow to his campaign, believe me.

[WilliamPitt]

8. We'll see

You may be right...or maybe they'll say "We have the cash on hand, let's go win a few states and get back into this thing." Stranger things have happened.

[wtmusic]

13. You mean like Clinton losing NH in '92?

Kerry could still turn it around

[virtualobserver]

30. I don't know

I think that the death knell for the Kerry campaign was the multi-poll confirmation that Dean was leading in Massachusetts.

It was a sign of incredible weakness for Kerry. It would be understandable if Kerry was a fringe candidate, but for a former frontrunner, it is almost inconceievable.

[Freddie Stubbs]

50. Kerry is fighting for 2nd place in NH

Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

more: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

It will be very difficult for Kerry to convice anyone that he is a viable candidate if he runs 3rd in NH.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[poskonig]

10. What is the Kerry scenario?

I can see how Edwards, for instance, may win SC and Oklahoma, and then proceed to win Tennessee and Virginia on the 10th I believe it is. This *might* give him "momentum" to come from behind on March 2nd. The same applies with Clark.

How Kerry puts together a strategy is beyond me. Suppose he puts his resources for a stand in Michigan while the other Democrats gobble up the rest of the states. Then what? He'd still be toast.

[mb7588a]

15. I've figured all along

it won't be March until we know who the real frontrunner(s) is(are). I think we'll go into the spring months with at least 4 good candidates (Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, Clark). Probably two of those will have much more support than the other two from outside the party leadership (dean and clark). Probably two will have a lot of support from within the party leadership (Gephardt and Kerry). Dean may lead in the national polls, but he's still beaten by Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, don't know, and other - its too soon to call him anything but a serious contender.

Meanwhile the other party will have their one man all along. Defeating an incumbant is tough. With a field like ours going into primaries, and the 4 people/things mentioned above not running, it shall be interesting. The candidates have A LOT of work to do. Getting that "don't know/other" 30% will be very difficult, and it will only go to the 4 contenders mentioned above.

[spindoctor]

28. Don't forget....

You forgot DC, the very first primary on January 13, although I believe Dean is the only frontrunner that didn't pull out there.

Sharpton isn't going to quit before SC. He is second after Edwards in that state with a relatively small margin. He is also 3rd in PA, btw.

Lieberman still leads DE, PA, FL, CT, WI, OH, TN and is second in NJ. As much as we all like to see him go, his early departure is not only unlikely, he still is a force to be reckoned with.

[OKNancy]

29. I agree with most of what you write except

the state I love and know best. In reference to Gephardt, it is true that Missouri is a neighbor of Oklahoma, however geographically it borders Oklahoma in just a small section. Politically, it is a world away. Arkansas shares a much longer border, and cross migration as well.

If Wesley Clark can get his act together ( no fault of the man himself ) Oklahoma would be much more inclined toward Clark than Gephardt.

Here is the way I see things going down. Lieberman has a big boost because Oklahomans, go love 'um, aren't too swift sometimes, and they just look at name recognition. Edwards is campaigning hard here, but I don't get a sense of too much buzz. Dean may do well because the perceived moderates will split the vote.

If Clark keeps spending money here he will do much better than Gephardt, IMO. ( I've seen the Clark commercial three times in the last two days, and it is great)

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. Dean is actually ahead of Gephardt in OK

http://www.newsok.com/cgi-bin/show_article?ID=1130950&TP=getarticle

It will probably all be over on February 8.

[CTLawGuy]

49. arrgh..

I hate having to register....

What does the poll say?

[HFishbine]

34. Gephardt and Money

I'm not sure what the measure of "has enough money to last a while" is, and the information I have is from the third quarter, but I'm not so sure Gephardt will have the funds he needs to do battle.

At the end of the third quarter, he had $5,884,601 in cash, to Kerry's $7,786,291 and Dean's $12,435,901. To that point, his total funds raised were half those of Dean's. Kerry is in slightly better shape, but as you note, there are no apparent wins in store for Kerry in the first few weeks of the primaries.

Gephardt will live or die by Iowa. If he wins it, he can play through the scenerio you describe, albeit weakly. If he loses it, North Dakota and Oklahoma become less likely, leaving him only Missouri out of eleven states.

http://www.tray.com/cgi-win/pml1_sql_PRESIDENTIAL.exe?DoFn=2004

[unfrigginreal]

35. Lieberman is still in the mix

Agree with what you've said but if "the folks running the party" determine that Clark is not gaining enough traction then there will be a stampede to the Lieberman campaign. It's going to be loads of fun reading all of the pro-Lieberman threads here on DU.

[curse10]

37. And, as others drop off we have no idea who their supporters are going to

get behind.

If Sharpton, MB, DK, Joe, and Edwards supporters get behind one candidate, it really changes the whole face of the race.

I expect Edwards and Lieberman to support either Kerry or Gep. DK? Kerry. Sharpton? Kerry. MB? Dean.

Edited to reflect some analysis from John :-)

[sistersofmercy]

38. I completely agree with your position and the fact that

Dean supporters have started full force attacking JK tells me they view him as a threat. In addition, I don't think Edwards will be dropping out either, he's sort a friendly wild card.

[CMT]

39. regarding Gep

I potentially see him as Dean's main rival but only if he wins Iowa. Iowa is key because if he wins it he gets positive press if he loses the press will write him off since Iowa has always been acknowledged as a Gephardt state.

Will he go on if he loses Iowa, probably. But the only state he would likely win I think is his own Missouri and that may not be overwhelmingly since a poll this summer showed Dean only 14-points behind him there.

If Gep loses Iowa, I see Clark as Dean's main rival.

[mdmc]

40. Agree

No one will drop out after NH............... U

[mrgorth]

41. Absolutely not over

just sit back and watch the fireworks.

[GumboYaYa]

45. I disagree.

Gephardt is getting bled dry in Iowa right now. If he doesn't beat Dean there, forget getting any new funding. He may straggle along for a while on hope and a prayer, but if he doesn't win Iowa he is effectively done. Also, as I said upstream, I'm on the ground in Missouri canvassing every weekend and his support in MO is not as strong as you think. I was pulling for 20% for Dean in the Missouri primary, but I've upped my expectations to at least 30% now.

Kerry is losing badly in NH and strating to trail in his home state. The MO is so against him right now that he needs a miracle. He may have the money to stay on board, but going from losses in Iowa and NH to the South does not bode well for Kerry.

Lieberman is already an also ran. Let him stay in the race and piss away money if he wants. Lieberman will not win a single primary. He is no threat to the other candidates.

<N EDIT> Actually, I don't really disagree with you, I just think that all three campaigns will be severely crippled in the near future. I do think Gep is short for the race, based on what I have heard locally about his fund raising.

[Sweetpea]

46. I hope they don't because I still have a hard time with Dean.

If he wins, I will vote for him.