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[kentuck]

1. I have thought the same thing Pete...

In fact, it was mentioned on a thread in the last day or so. If Kerry does better than the low numbers in the polls, and I suspect he will, then he will have managed a "comeback" of sorts and will get a second chance. On the flip side, if Dean does not do as well as expected, they could portray him as losing steam.

[sistersofmercy]

2. But the...

Well, I think you know the obligatory acronym response you're going to get here!
I wholeheartedly believe Kerry will gather steam.

[helleborient]

3. Why has Kerry lost over half of his support in New Hampshire??

Kerry once polled at 28 points in New Hampshire (in the ARG poll) and now is at 13. There is no comparison with Bill Clinton's come from behind in New Hampshire. Bill Clinton was never at the level and then lost that number of voters.

This is what really concerns about the Kerry campaign in N.H. He is not just failing to gain new supporters...he is losing supporters at an alarming rate - faster than any other candidate.

What is his explanation for that? Give me more money...I really will win this...????

[Name removed]

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[blm]

10. The media doing bad stories for the last 2 months

while propping up another?

Go look at Frank Luntz's original NH focus group early this year where the participants were shown all the candidate's appearances on MTP. Even though Luntz at the time was prodding them towards Lieberman, most chose Kerry for his intellect , his record and his depth in so many areas. And that was well after the Resolution vote.

Then fast forward to the next focus group after the NM debate where Kerry did an outstanding job and Dean did poorly as even many Dean supporters admitted here at DU. Luntz's focus group then said that Kerry was "slick" and "saying what he thinks people want to hear" and "insincere" while Dean was praised with superlatives.

Then after watching every performances of Luntz's since where he has effusively pumped up Dean himself and in his focus groups, tell me again that the media has NOTHING to do with it.

[poskonig]

4. I hope Kerry runs a respectable *campaign*

I mean this literally. He should strive for greatness and stop monkeying around with motorcycles and stuff.

[SahaleArm]

11. Yes he should be strumming a guitar instead *nm*

[Scott Lee]

14. The motorcycle stunt was his Dukakis moment

He was getting freaked that he might suffer the same fate as Mike D. and Al Gore for "stiffness". I understand that part. But the Born To Be Wild stunt was really silly. It just isn't him.

[blm]

17. Kerry's been riding motorcycles for longer than you've been alive probably

And Kerry on a motorcycle, Kerry flying a plane, Kerry a crack sharpshooter, Kerry a war hero, Kerry playing hockey, Kerry debating, and Kerry the intellect are ALL 100% Kerry.

Now, would you care to put Kerry on a motorcycle pic next to Bush on a Segway?

[kentuck]

22. And Bush fell off the Segway...

What a visual!

[welshTerrier2]

26. How Symbolic ...

I keep thinking about how bush falling off the Segway mirrors his policy of "going after Al Qaeda by attacking Iraq" ...

[poskonig]

28. Think about the strategy.

Not the morality or truth.

Turn weakness into strength, and don't turn your strengths into weaknesses.

The Kerry campaign should package their product as a great statesman. Even if he genuinely likes motorcycles.

Woodrow Wilson was a professor at Princeton, and also was labelled with an "aloof" image during his campaign. There was a **real** affair story about another woman the Republicans tried to smear him with, but people thought, yeah right!

Or as people in advertising say, sell the sizzle, not the steak.

[helleborient]

25. The motorcycle on Leno was the talk of the Dean Meetup...

With words like "I was embarrassed for him."

[blm]

29. Sure. I'm ashamed for Dean cribbing Kerry's policy speeches

and pretending that HE is the one who has worked on foreign policy and environmental issues for over 30 years.

[Bandit]

32. I would not expect any good words from a Dean Meetup

People seem to feel the only way they can boost their candidate is by bringing down the other guy. That is GOP tactic. Follow it at your peril. As far as Senator Kerry on a Motorcycle ~ Dean should try it. Kerry can legitimately say been there done that. Dean could use a little image making himself. I like Dean and I love what he says but he could use a lift in the image dept. People in America seem to want a "Bad Ass" for President. What is more "Bad Ass" than a Biker unless it's a military man with numerous medals. Senator Kerry has both images and rightly so.

[helleborient]

35. These same Dean supporters built up Wesley Clark...

It wasn't a discussion intended to tear down candidates.

There was some bewilderment expressed about the Kerry implosion...but an ex-military man at our Meetup said he hated the Aircraft Carrier stunt when Bush did it...and didn't appreciate Kerry's use of it either. That prompted the comment about the Leno show.

If the public are so into a "Bad Ass" candidate...why are the people and money flocking to Dean, and why has Kerry lost half of his support in the key states of New Hampshire and South Carolina?

[dfong63]

36. actually it's not a GOP tactic

People seem to feel the only way they can boost their candidate is by bringing down the other guy. That is GOP tactic. Follow it at your peril.

actually it's not a GOP tactic. repub candidates are generally much better than dems at following the "eleventh" commandment, "Thou shalt not attack a fellow party member."

[Bandit]

38. Does Bush* ~ McCain ~ South Carolina ring any bells?

:shrug:

[CMT]

5. there is a chance

but anything over ten points will be considered a solid Dean win. If Kerry gets Dean under ten points then he could have some bragging rights, but limited especially if Dean wins Iowa which is still possible. It goes the same for Dean in Iowa, if he loses but is close to Gep then he has bragging rights.

[dajabr]

7. What if Kerry finishes in 3rd behind Clark in NH?

Would he get any "bounce" from that? Doubtful...

[Name removed]

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[blm]

33. Deserves its own thread, Pete, and a clip.

.

[mrgorth]

12. We'll see

best of luck. (no sarcasm)

[CWebster]

13. Kerry is the quintessential Senator

but these are not the times for his brand of politician.

[Monte Carlo]

15. His brand of politician?

You mean the honest, respectable brand of politician?

[CWebster]

18. The kind of politician

who assumes the other side is an honest, respectable brand of politician.

[blm]

20. His brand? The type that exposes more govt. corruption than any other

politician in modern history?

You think NOW isn't the right time when we have been assaulted for the last few years by the most corrupt govt. ever?

I say unleash Kerry, Clark, Edwards AND Spitzer on these thugs. Throw in Graham and Cleland and Joe Wilson to go after them, too.

[CWebster]

23. too bad nothing ever came of it

Oliver North has his own TV show and Negroponte is the US envoy to the UN.

[blm]

27. Nothing? Almost everything we know about the BFEE stems from those efforts

and BCCI was forced to close, Ollie North was exposed in IranContra and Bush1 was forced to pardon people in his administration and the covert wars being waged were forced to end, and the Iran-Iraq war dried up when weapons dealings ended. And Kerry wrote a book about the New War against Terror back in 97 that foretold what terror was in store for the world and how it was being funded.

YOU call that NOTHING on WHAT PLANET?

You really hated history class, CWebster?

[Sean Reynolds]

16. If this were in August, I'd say yes.

But it's December 5th, January 27th is the New Hampshire presidential primary. That means Kerry has only a little over a month to rebound from being 30 points down and also a little over a month to curb his falling toward the bottom. Yes Dean's lead MAY shrink a bit, but for even Kerry to 'come back' he'd need to at least poll 10% behind Dean, anything more would kill his chances. Also you're not looking at the fact Clark is surging behind Kerry. IF this continues, come January Kerry won't even be in second place.

Take it like a basketball game. You've got a team up by 30 with only one period left. Yes there is always a chance that the other team can come back and either win the game, or cut into the lead with respectable play. BUT that doesn't happen much. I see Kerry getting no closer than 20% points behind Dean. If he loses New Hampshire by 20 points, he's gone.

[Forkboy]

19. Low expectations worked for President Giggle and Kill

so it may work for Kerry as well.I doubt it,but it might.

[welshTerrier2]

21. The Long and the Short of It

nice post, Pete ...

here's my take on Kerry's chances ... first, it would have been hard to craft a more poorly run campaign than Kerry had up until the last several weeks ... many of his ideas were good but his campaign lacked direction and perhaps passion as well ...

Voters in Iowa and N.H. have been paying attention to our candidates for months now ... many are "locked in" ... they've made a decision ... in this environment, the rich get richer ... nothing succeeds like success ... so, in the short run, including Iowa and N.H., I think Kerry takes a bath with the usual "if he can't even win in his own backyard" and "Mr. Kerry, will you drop out now" insults from the media ...

But that's the short run ...

While it's always difficult to regain momentum from a bad start, Kerry is both saying and doing the right things now ... and he's doing them very well ... his foreign policy speech a couple of days ago was one of the most insightful speeches i've ever heard ... frankly, the knowledge he demonstrated in this speech led me to believe he is stronger on foreign policy than all our other excellent candidates ...

So, in the long run, where many voters have yet to focus on either the candidates or the issues, we have a very different situation ... we have a healthier, more motivated John Kerry breathing a new energy into his campaign ... what will happen? a wise observer of the situation has to label the "down the road" primaries too tough to call ...

For those who think Kerry is toast, you may be right in the short term ... but I see no basis beyond a "he's behind now so he will be behind then" argument for knowing what will happen down the road ... Kerry has clearly decided to hang in for the duration ... only time will tell ... to write him off now would be foolish ...

[CWebster]

24. "doing the right things now"

Like recommending James Baker....what could he be thinking?

[welshTerrier2]

30. My Two Cents

he could be thinking that showing a balanced spirit of bi-partisanship in an era where the republicans have virtually destroyed our democratic processes by excluding democrats from participating in the government might just be a very wise political strategy ... i think the voters are very turned off to the partisan sniping we've seen so much of lately ... handled correctly, the democrats should be able to capitalize on this issue as the party out of power ...

i hate baker too but Kerry hasn't appointed anybody to anything ... maybe this is a good political strategy, eh ?? baker was only one of a list of names Kerry mentioned ... showing a willingness to consider both democrats and republicans for key positions isn't such a bad thing is it? it doesn't mean he would actually ever appoint baker ...

[CWebster]

34. My point earlier in the thread

he is the wrong cut of politician for these times.

[blm]

39. Wrong time for a corruption investigating lawmaker

who exposed more government corruption in modern history than ANY other lawmaker? One who also knows more about the funding of terrorism than any current lawmaker?

Care to elaborate?

[blm]

31. He didn't. He was showcasing a bipartisan approach to Mideast peace

and used Baker's name as the one identified from the Bush1 administration who dealt with that issue. It was smart to illustrate for conservatives that they can't trust Bush2's ineptness even though I, personally, despise the person.

[dfong63]

37. then he picked a lousy example

[NewYorkerfromMass]

40. and to follow up welsh

we've got to send Kerry money. I am beginning to ask friends and associates to do the same. It's hard, and though it really hurts, it is much harder for me to see him struggling. We have got to let him know he STILL has the kind of support that counts, before the first vote is cast.

Alterman's report on Kerry yesterday is inspiring

BTW: Whoever donated to DU on my behalf- Thank You! John Kerry will directly benefit!

[absyntheNsugar]

41. Kerry's big mistake

was changing managers mid stream. True, he probably shouldn't have used his previous manager in the first place. Wasn't he also working with Donna Brazile? Kerry's a great Senator, plagued with a bad manager.

I learned long ago, its not who you are but who's behind you that matters in politics. Dean has Joe Trippi, a non-stop pitbull - reminds me of Carville in a big way.