Salon - Is Dean Stoppable?

[pruner]

Every candidate has a winning scenario -- but most political experts seem to agree that six weeks before the first vote, Dean looks tough to beat.

…

But supporters of Dean's competitors -- not to mention the candidates themselves -- can of course still explain the intricate scenarios that lead to a different ending, whether it's Rep. Dick Gephardt (Iowa as springboard to rest of states), Sen. John Kerry (surprise showing in Iowa, resurgence in New Hampshire), Sen. John Edwards (strong non-first-place finishes in the first two contests followed by wins in the South) or Wesley Clark (same as Edwards minus Iowa, where he is not competing). And they certainly aren't convinced that it's all over with six weeks to go.

…

Given that, a growing number of politicos regard the various victory scenarios of the other candidates as almost too far-fetched to consider. And some of those political experts still willing (when pressed) to entertain them, seem to do so halfheartedly.

"I don't know if I believe this can actually happen," said Democratic consultant Tom Ochs, "but this would be the Doomsday scenario: Gephardt wins Iowa, and then maybe Dean wins in New Hampshire, but by less than the margin that polls predicted pre-Iowa, and that would be seen as him losing momentum. Then somehow maybe Edwards or Kerry survives by finishing third or second in the first two states. Then Dean finishes second in a bunch of places on Feb. 3, so he ends up out of the money in South Carolina, second to Clark in Arizona, and Gephardt wins Missouri and Washington state. So after three rounds, the only place Dean will have won is New Hampshire.

"So then a view might emerge that the wheels are coming off," he continued, "and the powers that be will decide that one of the other candidates can beat Dean -- maybe Edwards or Clark after they win South Carolina -- and then a strong other-than-Dean candidate emerges. Then the party's money and institutional forces coalesce around that one candidate, and other candidates drop out and don't endorse Dean because they all hate him. Then in the next round, this other candidate -- maybe Gephardt or Edwards or Clark -- maybe this candidate can win some other big state against Dean."

…

http://salon.com/news/feature/2003/12/05/dean/index.html

[AmericanDem]

1. Take away the GOP and

Major Media and you really wouldn't be hearing alot about Dean.

[slinkerwink]

2. rolls eyes----Dean EARNED the media coverage

because of what he's done----we were first attracted to him when he wasn't COVERED by the media....

[pruner]

3. I suppose you'd have to take away his 500,000+ supporters too

:eyes:

[slinkerwink]

4. some people are on a ship called Deanial....

;-)

[JNelson6563]

5. <snarf>

Good one. :-)

[pruner]

6. Deanial has been reaching pandemic proportions at the Kerry blog lately

:evilgrin:

[Bombtrack]

8. where is there proof of that?

how do you know he has 500,000 supporters?

[slinkerwink]

9. it's LISTED right there on the Dean BLOG......

it's called using your own eyes and the little mouse to scroll....

[pruner]

10. even if you choose to dispute the # of supporters Dean has…

you can't dispute the fact that over 220,000 people have donated to his campaign… a number rivaled only by Bush.

check the FEC web site.

[slinkerwink]

11. hahahaha, yeppppppppppp

:evilgrin: the proof is there!

[SahaleArm]

27. Nope it isn't - 220,000 contributions not contributors.

I can go through the absurd research for you but I'll just give you the link. WA State is top-5 in Dean contributions, of which 80% is from the Puget Sound Area:

Public Records Driven by Zip-Codes: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/politics/contributions/search.pl

Average Donation is closer to $400/person through 3-4x contributions of $50-$250.

98122
98103
...

[pruner]

28. wrong…

it's contributors

[SahaleArm]

29. I just gave the data from public records - Where's your proof? *nm*

[mitchum]

12. Well he won't need my $$$ or water-carrier services...

will he?

[pruner]

14. he might not need it…

but I'm sure it would be appreciated nonetheless.

;)

[mitchum]

17. No, a centrist is what one settles for...

not what one works for

[Eloriel]

25. o-n the contrary

He needs 2 million $100 supporters. And more campaign workers in each and every state. This is a people-powered campaign. For real. Go buy yourself a President,like I have. :evilgrin:

Eoloriel

[Bombtrack]

15. that doesn't mean he has that many supporters

alot of people donate to multiple candidates. And Dean has also gotten alot of money from republicans who want him nominated

[pruner]

18. Bombtrack responds: "facts?… I don't need no stinkin' facts!"

:crazy:

[Bombtrack]

20. why do you constantly get personal

I talk about Dean, you talk about me. It's not the first time.

[pruner]

21. I didn't attack you…

I attacked your reply which is unsupported by factual evidence.

[Mz Pip]

24. 500,000 supporters

are nice, but he will have to get 55 million votes to beat Bush. BIg difference.

MzPip
:dem:

[ozone_man]

7. I don't know about unstoppable, but he's on a roll.

He's got momentum. He is a fresh outsider, who stands up to the inside establishment. I wouldn't say he has a lock by any means, but he looks strong.

[KittyWampus]

13. Fresh Outsider?

His campaign was seeded by Big Energy
Dean was part of the DLC

How ludicrous....

[StopTheMorans]

16. yeah, all 222K of us who have donated are big energy

give it a rest :eyes:

[KittyWampus]

22. You'd Have Never Heard Of Dean Without Money From Vermont Yankee

Apparently you have no idea about Dean's actual record or how he got into the race.


...................................................................................................................................................................
Dean raises money from energy sources
February 27, 2002

By David Gram

ASSOCIATED PRESS

MONTPELIER — When Gov. Howard Dean wanted to raise money for a possible presidential bid, he followed the example of a former governor of Texas and called on his friends in the energy industry.

Nearly a fifth of the roughly $111,000 collected in its first months by Dean’s presidential political action committee, the Fund for a Healthy America, came from people with ties to Vermont’s electric utilities, according to a recent Federal Elections Commission filing.

It should be no surprise. Dean and utility executives have had a long and friendly relationship.

snip

But the governor himself has said the donations buy access. “People who think they’re going to buy a contract or buy some influence are mistaken,” Dean famously said during the debate over a campaign finance reform bill in 1996. “But they do get access — there’s no question about that. ...They get me to return their phone calls

http://timesargus.nybor.com/Legislature/Story/43125.html

[blm]

32. and Vermont Yankee was sold to Entergy, a Koch Industries co.

and it just so happens Dean won't release those papers dealing with that sale.

Maybe because he was also involved for years trying to push electricity deregulation in Vermont?

Kinda like Cheney lite.

[Bombtrack]

19. His campaign co-chair is also the former DNC chairman

Steve Grossman is as much of a clintonite, insider as anyone else in any campaign

[KittyWampus]

23. As Is Trippi

[ozone_man]

26. Dean departed ways with the DLC some years ago.

I think it's been a slow migration away from the DLC branch of the party. I'm not a Dean expert, just a fan.

You can say that he had an early contribution from a utility (and you would be correct), but there have been precious few contributions from corporations or PACs. It's enough for me to see that his average contribution is $77 per person.

As governor, you have to make decisions regarding utility contracts, etc. Dean signed the Hydro Quebec contract as an alternative to more nuclear or oil generated power. He believed that this was the best alternative to take Vermont through to 2017.

Regarding nuclear energy; we are stuck with Vermont Yankee as many states are stuck with plants created in the 70's. Dean is not an advocate of nuclear energy.

There are no perfect, zero impact decisons when it comes to energy, unfortunately. Dean has always pushed for energy efficiency first as a solution to energy needs and started an energy efficiency utility in Vermont. He is very strong on renewable energy as well, vist his web site to see.

[blm]

30. Jan.2003 was years ago? Dean is not listed DLC because his term was up

and they only listed current officeholders.

Dean was the conservative Dem who pulled the party further right throughout his governorship.

Dean was given a press plane by the corporate media last June. Wanna know why?

http://www.corpwatch.org/news/PND.jsp?articleid=6976

[deminflorida]

31. Yep, once someone starts harking on that Middle Class Tax

issue, Dean is DIW (Dead in the Water) for better lack of another Navy term.