The "Capital Gang" election survey says

[DancingBear]

Just watched a bit of it in between USC blowing out Oregon State and getting ready for New Orleans.

The roundtable discussion centered on the Dem primary, naturally. Here's how the question was framed: Can Howard Dean lose this nomination? (note: prefaced it by saying he is leading Gephardt in Iowa)

Hunt: If he (Dean) wins Iowa, and NH, I don't see any way that he can be stopped.

O'Beirne: (holding up National Review cover w/Dean on it, caption reading "Please Nominate This Man!") - Agrees with both Hunt and magazine cover

Novak: Comments on the crazy make-up of the Dem nominating system/primaries, and agrees.

Rob Emanuel: Clark supporter -says key to race is Clark finishing second in NH.

Discussion then turns to: can Dean win general election? Most feel he can not, that he will bring out strong base appeal but almost no moderate/crossover vote needed to win. Someone commented that Dean followers feel like that since they like him everybody else will as well (my note: aren't all supporters of a candidate like that?)

Save for Emanuel, NO mention made of Clark at all.

My thoughts?

Re: is Dean nomination a done deal? - Earth to Capital Gang, come in please...

Re: why he can't win the GE - Roger Earth, coming in now...

These folks definitely need to get out more.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. Do you mean Rahm Emanuel?

[DancingBear]

2. Yes

Can I blame it on having laser eye surgery yesterday and still recovering?

No, probably not.

[spooky3]

5. hey, good luck in your recovery

I was legally blind before having it done several years ago and I am so so happy with the results (20-20 except reading). Hope you will be too.

[DancingBear]

8. Well, I shouldn't say this

but this is my 8th(!) laser surgery. This latest one was w/the new Lasik Custom View - hope it finally works out.

I am the one in a million that everyone talks about - not injured or anything, it's just that the #%# procedure never corrects me to 20/20.

BTW, the doc that did/does the surgery is the same one who worked on Tiger Woods, so I figure I'm in pretty goood hands.

[calimary]

10. I had Lasik surgery (very successfully, by the way) and it didn't

correct me to 20/20 either. Apparently these Lasik guys/girls all think they shouldn't impair our ability to see far away AND read a menu at the same time. Much as I tried to talk them out of it (look, I don't mind wearing reading glasses!! I've lived with glasses on my face nonstop since age 9, so having to put some on to read with is a VAST improvement in my life. I'll cope with it!), they went ahead with Plan A. Oh well. I had a second surgery to "tweak" the eye that was at 20/70, and that brought it up to near perfection. As my vision retreats, again, with age, I plan on having it again.

By the way, I'd say you are in pretty good hands, indeed. He who did not fail Tiger Woods will also be careful with you.

[DancingBear]

12. I agree

It's a function of my eyes, really. They healed (literally) too fast after the initial (sucessful) surgery, and an enhancement had to be performed. That's where the trouble arose. This newer procedure put a "new" flap in, and everyone is pretty hopeful. Me, too.

I can deal w/reading glasses - I am, after all, um, er, somewhat over the ideal laser age. :)

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

11. No worries. You can blame it on anything!

Hope the surgery goes well....I was just wondering if I missed a new pundit..

[Fenris]

3. Yes he did

[spooky3]

4. with such powers of prescience, I wonder why they

aren't studying a little finance and getting rich in the stock market rather than wasting their time as talking heads.

[alfredo]

6. Opinions are like

assholes, everybody's got one.

Of course some get paid for presenting their opinions, and some get paid for presenting their assholes. Sometimes it is difficult to tell them apart.

[BootinUp]

7. Its been this way since October

After the inital excitement of Clark getting in the race, most all the coverage of the race by television pundits has minimized or even ignored Clark as far as I can tell.

[xray s]

9. They are underestimating him

That's ok by me.

Here is what no one knows today. How will Dean campaign in the general election? Of course he is pulling out all the stops to get the base out in the primaries. That is how you win the nomination. That is good politics.

In the general election, if Dean is smart (and there is every indication that his political instincts are sharp) I would wager he will move closer to the center (which is his natural home) and put more focus on a positive future for America under his presidency.

But, he will not back away from defending himself either. And he will have the cash to do so.

Look at his govenorship in Vermont. He governed in the middle and was govenor for 12 years. From what I hear neither the left or right were all that happy with him. Not exactly a radical McGovernite it seems. That should tell you something.

Besides, I do not think the Bush camp would be running negative ads against Dean this early if they really want him to get the nomination.

The best thing Dean should do after the nomination is modify his tax stance. I would suggest he ditch the Bush part of the tax cut to the wealthy and corporations, and keep the Democratic part of the tax cuts to lower and middle income families. He could even explain it that way and still be true to his "recind the Bush tax cut" message.

[SPURGEMAN23]

13. Who cares what they say?

how many people watch the capital gang? 250K at the most. Listening to these people got Gore in trouble.

Build on your base, the others will come. Ignore TV pundits.

[in_cog_ni_to]

14. I watched it and

it really ticked me off. No mention of the guy in 2nd place! It's so obvious what they're doing it makes me sick. Just WAIT! After NH, SC and Florida they won't be able to ignore him! They will have no choice but to give the man some credit. :grr:

[jiacinto]

15. Here is the phrase

Kate O'Beirne needs to be reminded of.

Be Careful with What you Wish for. You Might Just Get it".

Didn't Democrats in 1980 want Ronald Reagan to be Carter's opponent. Well they got him and look who won two landslide victories.

[gauguin57]

16. i hope i'm wrong ...

but I can't help but agree with some of the "gang." I was an early Dean supporter ... but I do believe he will have a hard time winning the general election. Especially if the economy is still in fake-recovery in a few months.

I will GLADLY eat my words if Dean does win. I will find this thread, print out the page and eat it bite by bite.

And if he's the nominee, I will support him with all my heart, soul and strength. But I'm voting for Kerry in the primary. Though if I were true to my heart, I'd vote for Al Sharpton ... the only true straight-talker in this race. Can't wait to see him on SNL tonight!

I am also afraid that the confedrate-flag remark is going to be the tip of the iceberg with Dean before next November. While we need someone who can fire back at Chimpya, we don't need a loose cannon.

[FrenchieCat]

17. Somebody in one of the Clark yahoo groups

dropped this on us:
pollpundit
http://www.polipundit.com/
Friday, December 05, 2003
The Dean/Clark Story

Deborah Orin and I seem to be mind-melding lately. Here's the money line from her latest piece:
If can beat Kerry in New Hampshire, he'd have a chance to emerge as Dean's chief rival.

posted by PoliPundit at 9:01 PM Link to this post | Comments (7)


Dean Leads in South Carolina

Howard Dean has a slight lead in South Carolina. Go, Dean, Go! Dean's campaign is taking the fight to the February 3 states.
posted by PoliPundit at 11:27 AM Link to this post | Comments (8)


Give, Give, Give

To everyone who took up my call to donate to Howard Dean in June, here's your new assignment: Give all you can to John Edwards and/or John Kerry.

The rationale is simple:
1. We still want Dean to be the nominee so that President Bush can crush him and have long coattails.
2. The biggest threat to a Dean nomination is no longer Dick Gephardt, John Kerry or John Edwards. It's Weasel Clark, for all the reasons outlined below.
3. To help Dean, we have to bring down Clark's vote totals in the crucial states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
4. In New Hampshire, donating to neighbouring-son John Kerry will help ensure that Clark won't surpass expectations by finishing ahead of Kerry.
5. In South Carolina, Clark can be stopped by neighbouring-son John Edwards.

Donating online is easy. Just click here to donate to Kerry or click here to donate to Edwards.
posted by PoliPundit at 7:07 AM Link to this post | Comments (13)


Clark is Not Out

Mickey Kaus agrees that Weasel Clark is the most likely Great Anti-Dean Hope:
Dean, Clark, Hope for Sparks: The more I think about it, a turning point in the Democratic presidential campaign has to come with the first N.H. poll showing Clark ahead of Kerry and in second place. It could come any day now. Clark's only three points behind in one poll and only two in another. And Kerry's fading while Clark is rising. ... When the lines cross, several things will happen: 1) The main surviving rationale of Kerry's campaign--"I'm the electable alternative to Dean"--evaporates. It turns out there's a more electable alternative. Kerry's vote asymptotically approaches zero. 2) The #1 versus #2, Dean versus Clark match up will get lots of play in the press because Clark's strengths are Dean's weaknesses, yielding a story line that is simple and compelling: "Peacenik McGgovern II versus Electable Military Man. Which will the Democrats Choose?" ... 3) Clark will get a lot of favorable treatment in this new round of coverage--in part because the press feels guilty about giving Dean (as The Note notes) a relatively easy time so far, in part because the press wants a close race. If Clark's ready with an appealing message when the spotlight turns to him, he could give Dean a scare and at least come close enough to winning to get a boost for the post-N.H. primaries. ... P.S.: I flew this scenario by a number of knowledgeable political reporters at a party I was just at, and none of them bought it. So it's not the CW! It's quirky and contrarian! I want big points if it pans out. ...