Lets talk caucus and primary Conventional Wisdom.

[Gore1FL]

As I see it:

If anyone besides Gephardt wins Iowa, Gephardt has to get 2nd in IA to stay in the race, and at least 3rd in NH to be a contender in SC and NM.

If Gephardt wins Iowa, he can pretty much place in the top 4 in NH and be strong enough.

Dean and Lieberman and Kerry all have to place in the top 2 in NH for SC not to be a joke. If any come in lower than 3rd in IA, I don't see a 2nd place finish doing much for that candidate either.

Edwards, if he survives to SC needs to get 2nd, or he may as well hang it up.

Sharpton is in it for the long haul. Braun is out by Super Tuesday.

Clark is the interesting one. If he places 4th or above, he may find a comeback on Super Tuesday, but that would require a 2nd place finish in either IA of SC.

If Dean wins IA, NH and SC, he runs the board.

Comments?

[Bombtrack]

1. Clark withdrew from Iowa

It kills me to say it, but the rights number 1 priority right now is stopping CLARK from beating Dean.

Bill Saffire and a couple of other journalists(who weren't right-wing like SAffire) gave me a little hope for the past few weeks that Edwards could emerge as the anti-Dean candidate, but until something big happens for him positivly, I just can't get my hopes up anymore.

The instapundit post telling supporters to donate to Edwards and Kerry to stop Clark from stopping Dean did it for me.

Does Edwards have just as good a chance as Clark of winning SC and getting third or even second in NH? Yes, but Clark and not Edwards could win Arizona and Oklahoma at least according to the latest polls.

[Gore1FL]

2. I would think

that if Edwards beats Clark in NH, he would pass him.

Clark is lucky in the sense that he doesn't have to win to win, but he could embarrass himself (vote-wise) iof he doesn't place well before Super Tuesday.

Edwars has to beat Clark in HN and show respectably in IA, IMO, to have a shot at knocking off Clark in SC. SC sets up The rest of the South for Edwards should such an upset be possible.

[Bombtrack]

3. Except he's not polling well enough in AZ, OK, and NM

where as Clark is.

All of those are on the same day as SC.

Believe me, I would rather have a president Edwards than a president Clark. His ideas are better. I think he's more trustworthy. But I just am sick of wishful thinking. That's what Dean's general election hopes are based on. I can't deride that while basing my candidates primary scenario on a mish mash of irregular poll results.

It's been made clear that Dean is relying on Edwards and Kerry to stop Clark from stopping him. I don't want to be a part of that. If Clark gets the nom, he better use Edwards either as VP or attourney general.

[deminflorida]

4. I think Clark is going to do well in N.H. and then....

outright win in S.C., then battle Dean all the way down the road thru the nomination process. Win because of Florida and California but then it will be close still. So, he brings just barely enough delegates to the National Convention (a clear majority, however), splits the super delegates with Dean and chooses Dean as his running mate in order to maintain party unity (Generals rarely divide their forces), while at the same time announces his plans to name Edwards as A.G. at which point Freeper Heads will start exploding throughout the universe.

:kick:

[Bombtrack]

5. Clark should NOT chose Dean as his runningmate

He needs someone from Washington.

Up until recently I thought that He should pick Edwards and vice versa(still do on the vice versa if Edwards gets the nom.

But I think a stronger case can be made for Graham. Dean doesn't bring any state or states on board

Deanies/anti war-iors are not voting for Bush, and if they're half as useful in a general election as they say they all will be and are democrats worth there labels they will get on the Clark train without Dean as a vp

That's stipulating Dean would take the nod.

[Jerseycoa]

6. Agree Absolutely

This talk about Clark/Dean or Dean/Clark makes no kind of sense to me. Graham is the perfect VP choice for either Clark or Dean.

On edit: And Edwards as AG.

[Gore1FL]

7. Perfect ideologically, geographically?

I am just curious. I'd like to see someone from the congressional Black Caucus if the top of the ticket is outside of the beltway (moreso than any current or former candidate for the top job -- but that is just me)