New NH poll, Dean leading but who is the second choice of voters?

[CMT]

Yet another poll has been released regarding the NH primary. Conducted December 1-4 of 420 Registered Democrats and 180 Independent NH voters intending to vote in next months NH primary.

Dean 39% (33% in Oct)
Kerry 14% (19% in Oct)
Clark 5% (7% in Oct)
Edwards 5% (4% in Oct)
Lieberman 4% (3% in Oct)
Gephardt 3% (4% in Oct)
Kucinich 1% (same)
Braun 1% (same)
Sharpton 1% (same)
Undecided 27% (same)

Interesting that only Dean and Edwards gained any ground.

Dean has a big lead among Democrats 38-18 over Kerry (6% for Clark, 5% for Edwards)

and a larger lead among Independents--43-8 over Kerry with 4% for Clark and 3% for Edwards).

Dean leads in the first congressional district by 36-14 percent over Kerry and in the Second congressional district by 42-15 over Kerry.

Dean leads among both men and women. Men by 40-17 over Kerry and women by 38-12 over Kerry.

Favorability ratings:
Dean--77-12 fav/unfav
Kerry--64-22 fav/unfav
Clark 59-17 fav/unfav
Edwards 55-13 fav/unfav
Gep 55-23 fav/unfav
Lieberman 53-30 fav/unfav
Kucinich 26-28 fav/unfav
Braun 28-23 fav/unfav
Sharpton 14-55 fav/unfav

How strong is your support for your candidate. Definitely vote for your candidate or probably vote for your candidate?

Dean 57-42 (definite/probably)
Kerry 54-45 (definite/probably)
Gep (40-60 (definite/probably)
Clark 38-62 (definite/probably)
Lieberman 27-64 (definite/probably)
Kucinich 20-80 (definite/probably)
Edwards 15-69 (definie/probably)
Braun 100% probably
Sharpton 100% definitely

Who is your second choice?
Kerry 23%
Clark 15%
Dean 14%
Edwards 8%
Gep 6%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 3%
Braun 1%
Sharpton 1%
Undecided 24%

**29% of Dean supporters would choose Kerry as their second choice and 20% would go to Clark. 24% of Dean supporters are undecided.

**40% of likely Kerry voters choose Dean as their second choice. 21% of Dean supporters are undecided and 11% would chose Lieberman as second choice (I found that interesting).

**38% of Clark voters pick Dean as second choice and 31% Kerry. 20% are undecided.

**31% of Edward's voters chose Clark as second choice and 19% pick Kerry.

31% of Lieberman supporters pick Kerry as second choice with 27% for Dean.

**35% of Gep's voters are undecided and 20% would choose Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman.

http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/index.htm

[SadEagle]

1. Interesting number on Clark.

I wonder why he did so much worse in this poll than in the other recent ones.

[pruner]

2. the pollsters obviously conspired with the GOP to keep Clark down

:crazy:

[Jerseycoa]

5. A conspiracy

Most definitely. Both Dean and Clark have been robbed of six points.

[slinkerwink]

15. pruner was kidding

;-)

[Jerseycoa]

3. Yeah

Zogby December 4 (Nov 30-Dec 3) N 600 MOE 4%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Dean 45%.
Kerry 13%
Clark 11%

[slinkerwink]

4. aren't zogby polls biased?

;-)

[SahaleArm]

32. Those numbers are from ARG not Zogby

:P

[slinkerwink]

6. maybe it's the 180 independent voters that gave Dean a big lead?

after all, independents do like him.

[moz4prez]

7. i dont know

there are some rather curious goings-on in NH between campaigns, i hear.

on edit: let me clarify — UNETHICAL GOINGS-ON

[slinkerwink]

9. what sort of unethical goings-ons?

:shrug:

[moz4prez]

11. how do I phrase this . . .

OK . . . certain supporters of certain candidates are "persuading" opponents' supporters to attend fundraisers, stuffing mailboxes with popular hatchet jobs when they don't; arranging "playdates" at meet-ups for kids whose parents support certain other candidates, to pressure the parents into attending lest they disappoint their kids . . .

yeah. make of it what you will.

edit: phrasing

[unfrigginreal]

12. It sounds like another conspiracy theory about to hatch

We even had a post yesterday, from a supporter of the campaign best known for it's conspiracy theories, that the one element of DU that they couldn't count on was the tinfoil hat vote. It was really funny stuff...I'm talking milk through the nose funny.

[moz4prez]

13. conspiracy theory?????????

I caught word of this from a grassroots supporter up in NH, for your information! and of course I am not at liberty to disclose his/her name.

[slinkerwink]

14. okay, which candidate do you support?

and how does this translate into the poll?

[moz4prez]

16. I don't see how that's relevant to the discussion

Shouldnt one want to know WHOSE supporters are pulling these dirty tricks?

[slinkerwink]

18. well, it seems like a lot of the supporters of losing candidates in

polls shown like these, always come up with different theories to explain why their candidate isn't doing well in that poll.

[moz4prez]

20. look

i'm not trying to justify good or bad poll numbers. i just want to see this afloat in the DU collective consciousness, ok?

and these aren't CONSPIRACY THEORIES, please don't marginalize any piece of info you find particularly disagreeable. they are events that have occured. shall I PM you? the last thing I want to do is create a full-blown scandal and have this thread locked. anyone who even CARES to know can simply PM me.

[slinkerwink]

21. sure, go ahead and PM me

[maddezmom]

30. sent you a PM n/t

[moz4prez]

31. that's funny

i didn't receive one.

i'll send you the info anyway.

[maxanne]

10. do tell

us about it, please.

[pruner]

8. I believe there are more Independents in NH than Dems or Reps

:)

[janx]

24. Yep. "Live Free or Die."

I like New Hampshire.

[cindyw]

17. What evidence is there that Independents will show up for the Democratic

Primary? can someone give me proof that Independents even belong in this poll to such a degree.

[CMT]

26. it is an open primary

and there are actually more independents in NH than democrats and they have the option of participating. McCain won the GOP primary in '00 on the strength of independent voters and Bradley made the democratic primary close by doing better among independents than democrats.

[DancingBear]

19. I lived in NH from 1986-1998

and I recall that it was almost expected of Republicans to re-register as Independents and cast a primary vote for the Dem they MOST wanted to face in the GE. The Manchester Union-Leader newspaper (at that time run by "Wacky" Nacky Loeb) literally advertised such behavior in their editorial pages.

I can not comment on what is happening in NH today, since I have been away for 5+ years, but I would be curious to hear if this phenomenon is still taking place, and if so to the degree that it was when I lived there.

[CMT]

28. well there are democratic leaning independents in NH

and even without the independent vote Dean has a strong lead among Democrats as well. The arguement is that Dean can't win among independents but in NH and Iowa he is leading among them, so I take it as a good sign.

[DancingBear]

29. Understood, but my previous query still is valid

If indeed Dem independents are truly that, you are correct. What I am wondering, however, is if the process of changing affiliation for the Dem primary only is still widespread. I do not discount the veracity of the Dean lead in NH (due to the strength of his organization there) - I just wonder what percentage of it (if any at all) is due to a little muckraking going on. This is why I asked for some "homegrown" input, if any is available.

The landscape up there may be as pure as the driven snow, but the politics ain't. :)

<shuddering when thinking of Sununu>

[hedda_foil]

33. Dean's leading by a country mile among independents in NH

Pollster John Zogby: “This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750

[Justice]

35. Happens Today.

4 people in my family live in NH - yes, it still happens.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. So Kerry could have 43% in this poll

were it not for Dean, Dean, Dean, Dean ..... :)

[slinkerwink]

23. lol

;-)

[moz4prez]

25. check your inbox, slinkerwink

:)

[slinkerwink]

27. already replied back to you

sorry to hear about it though.

[JNelson6563]

34. very interesting

Thanks for posting! :hi:

Julie