The Iowa Electronic Markets Website predicts Dean victory

[brainshrub]

at the 2004 Democratic national Convention.



Here's the link to the site that explains what they do. Very interesting.

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

[Ediacara]

1. I went to their website

and I'm still confused....

[tsipple]

2. Actually, the Dean Price Just Went Up

The last trade (as I write this) on a Dean contract was 0.725. That spike upward was probably a result of the reporting that Al Gore will endorse Howard Dean.

OK, what does that mean? It means that the last time there was a trade, somebody paid 72.5 cents on a contract that pays 100 cents (1 dollar) if Dean becomes the Democratic nominee and 0 dollars if he does not.

Another way of saying the same thing is that, among participants in this market, Dean is the odds-on favorite for the nomination.

The price is also up at Tradesports.com, where the last trade was Dean at 67 cents, up 6 cents for the day. If you assume it's a "fair bet" among risk-neutral participants, you can also say that they collectively think there's a 2 in 3 chance that Dean will be the nominee.

Or did I just make it more confusing? :-)

[POed_Ex_Repub]

3. Tradesports has him at over 80 now...

For NH... at least if I'm reading it correctly... They've also got GW at over 60, but with the elections almost a year away that's likely to change (hopefully lower) as the race becomes clearer.