|
Gore picked Lieberman in 2000 because he draws his support from a different section of the party than Gore does. This hurts two people more than Joe:
1. Clark, who was best positioned to be the anti-Dean, has a much shorter time frame for gathering the anti-Dean vote under his banner. Coupled with Edwards's rising numbers in South Carolina, Clark is now in a very tough make-or-break position in New Hampshire.
2. Gephardt will be killed by this. This is his coffin nail in Iowa. It was bad before. Now it's chronic.
Besides Dean, one other Democrat benefits by this: John Edwards is having a good week. He's the guy whose prospects are least tied to the party establishment. He's not establishment like Kerry or Lieberman or Gephardt; he's not antiestablishment like Clark or Dean. He's just there doing his own thing. If Clark is weakened as the antiDean, then Edwards benefits.
After New Hampshire and a few drop-outs, all eyes are going to turn to South Carolina. That's the real 3rd round for the nomination fight. If Clark can't pull off second place in New Hampshire, he's got to win South Carolina or he's done with. The only people who can win in South Carolina are Dean, Clark, and Edwards.
If Dean wins there, it's over. If Edwards wins there, he's the antiDean. If Clark wins there, he's the antiDean. But even then, it might just be too late.
I'm a little pissed at Al Gore right now. His heart's in the right place, but I think he's done George Bush a bigger favor than Ralph Nader did in 2000. I hope against fear that I'm wrong.
|