Dean friends: Discussion about what Dean has to do to win in 2004.

[jeter]

Okay people, I know he hasn't won yet. But let's assume he does. We should assume that he will win the nomination. That way we'll be ready when the $200 million war machine comes running at us.

We still need 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency. How will we do it? I have a couple of scenerios that I want your opinion on.

Okay let's do an inventory of states that Gore carried and that we need to hold on to.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Delaware, Maryland and Oregon.

These are the states that George W. Bush will be coveting for 2004. So lets break them down. Will Dean do well in these states? I think Dean will carry all the other Democratic states easily.

Here's my breakdown: Dean will have no problem with Oregon, because they were very anti-war and less favorable of Bush. Nader was also a big factor for the closeness of the 2000 election. My prediction: easily Dean's.

Minnesota will appreciate Dean's outsider stature. I think that is appealling in Minnesota. My prediction: with a little work, easily Dean's.

Michigan will go for Dean because he has black support, he has union support. Michigan has been trending Democratic. It's Democratic governor is very popular and she may help in that state. I say that if we campaign here. We will win it. Prediction: Dean.

Iowa. I don't know what to think yet. People in the state must know him by now after all the campaigning that has been done. I wonder what the polling is in that state with a Bush vs. Dean match up.

Maryland and Delaware. I think the President may be harmed because of the governor who the President campaigned for. He has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth and his poll numbers are dropping. It's hard to see Bush doing much better in Maryland than he did in 2000. Gore won the election with some room to spare. My judgement: winnable, but will have to work.

Wisconsin. I worry about Wisconsin. It is very agricultural and Bush gave farmers that $50 billion in pork spending. He seems to be supportive in their beefs with Canada. We have to campaign hard in this state. Prediction: tough, but doable.

New Mexico. Again, this was a state that was kept close because of Nader. New Mexico is trending very Democratic. I think a smart campaign here will be enough to carry this state.

Pennsylvania. This is the one Bush really wants. He thinks he can carry it and will put up a strong fight. But the recent steel decision has hurt him in a state where his last approval rating (in November) put him at 46%. Dean also appeals to the gun voter and working classes with his union support. The governor is also a Democrat and will help. So will the fact that the attempted coup by Bush never materialized in Philidelphia. My judgement: A tough fought out campaign, but advantage Dean.

So these are the states I think we will have to fight in order to carry the states Gore won in 2000.

Now which states can Dean carry that Gore failed to in 2000.

Two spring out to my mind immediately. West Virginia and New Hampshire. These two states are a certain pick up, even to the most skeptical of you, for the Dems with any half decent campaign. Gore barely lost them and Dean is more popular than Gore here. Christ, Dean has a 77% positive impression among New Hampshire voters according to the last poll.

If we carry all our states and these two. We will have 269 electoral votes. One more less than needed. Which means we have to carry at least one or more states that Bush carried in 2000.

Here are the list of states I think Dean has a decent or very good shot at winning. I separate them in three groups.

Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado. The Western Triangle as I call them with 26 electoral votes. For some reason I think that we have a shot in other western states as well. States like Montana, the Dakotas and maybe even Nebraska and Kansas. I wouldn't risk the entire campaign on these three elections but it wouldn't hurt exploring them either.

Ohio and Missouri. Of these two I think Ohio is more likely than Missouri to come over to our column. I would add Tennessee in this group since demographically it is very similar. But Tennessee is very culturally conservative and I am afraid that the war drums would be enough to defeat us there. But Ohio is a state that is growing more and more dissatisfied with Bush. I see Ohio as the Republican Pennsylvania. They have to carry it or it is, adois George. We can and must put up a fight here to the death if necessary. Ohio must become the Democratic Party's and Dean's Stalingrad. Keep fighting until the end. Missouri is a possibility if the economy doesn't rebound strongly. If so, we have no chance here. There are enough freepers to swing this state to Bush. But if the working class doesn't match up with crazies we'll do okay.

Louisiana, Arkansas and Florida. Of these three I see Florida as the most trouble. I'm not saying we won't win it. But it will be tough. A dog fight like 2000. You know Bush will put $$$millions$$$ into this race. But if we match him, we have a shot. One possible advantage: Bush fatigue. Jeb Bush ran for governor in 1994. He became governor in 1998, there was all that trouble in 2000, Bush won his election in 2002. Then there was Pappy in 1992 and 1988. People may be sick of the Bushes in Florida. Recent slips in Bush's poll numbers also show some vulnerability. If we got Clark on the ticket we will win Arkansas. Plain and simple. Louisiana is the most liberal of southern states. I just don't see us winning Arkansas and Florida without winning Louisiana as well.

So this is how I see it. This is how the 2004 election will break down if Dean is nominated.

What strategies should Dean employ? I think he can certainly win but we have to run a smart campaign. What are your suggestions?

[BayCityProgressive]

1. I think that

with the mood this country is in Dean will have to mantain an "outsider" persona to energize voters, youth, and those who normally don't vote. We saw this with Ahhnold. Working people see that neither party stands for them and they are sick of electoral politics. hence the terrible apathy in this country. He will need to appear liberal, moderate, and conservative all at once. In some parts of the country he will need to play up his support of gay rights and abortion rights. He will need to keep an emphasis on health care healthcare healthcare and balanced budgets! He can appear conservative with his strong support for cutting "pork" out of budgets and being pro gun. He needs to have a strong plan to hold corporations accountable for their actions and keep jobs IN THE USA. I think these will be the big issues and I think Dean is the best candidate to capitalize on them all.

[Eloriel]

2. Major issue: Voting machines n/t

[robsul82]

3. Keep the old states and add Louisiana.

If we don't add Louisiana to the column, we screwed UP.

Later.

RJS

[ibegurpard]

4. Don't forget

The electoral counts have changed. We are already starting out with less electoral votes even if we hold every state Gore took.

[Guaranteed]

5. Is it still 270 votes needed?

I thought they added some delegates to some states, took some away from others....did this change?

[BayCityProgressive]

6. working people won't care

about voting machines. If anything, news on the subject would make people think their votes were even more usless. People are too lazy to care about this.

[ibegurpard]

7. yes 270 votes are still needed.

But all the losses of electoral votes came from states that went for Gore and the gains went to states that went for Bush. We are going to have to hold every Gore state and score a few more.

[mrgorth]

25. How the hell

do they keep getting away with this shit?

[jeter]

9. My electoral numbers do factor in the change.

If Dean carries all of Gore's states and NH, under the old system we would have the magic 270. If we win New Hampshire and West Virginia, we'll have only 269.

[forgethell]

24. The total remains the same

n/t

[K-W]

8. Im not really a Dean friend, but

I would say the number one priority for Dean to win would be to not make the mistakes of the Gore campaign. Do not let Bush control the battle ground. Do not let Bush define your campaign. Be smart and reserved, let Bush fall into the traps and call him on them. Dont be overly aggressive, but dont hesitate to take ground when Bush makes mistakes. Basically play better politics and image control.

[ibegurpard]

11. And DO NOT hire an image consultant

for god's sake...please!

[K-W]

13. Indeed

its not about changing your image, its about making the public like the image you have. Play to your strengths. Pick the traits Dean has, or can sell that people will relate to and push those traits.

[jeter]

12. I agree K/W

That was a major problem for Gore in 2000. Too many advisors allowing him to second guess himself.

[wtmusic]

10. Interesting

All the conventional analysis has proven wrong with Dean.

By next November there is no realistic scenario that indicates Iraq won't be a hellhole, worse than it is now. By then Bush is going to be a godsend for anyone to run against, and Dean's charisma and intelligence blow Bush away.

Once moderate Republicans start to learn more about him, there's even one debate (I can't see how there wouldn't be) a predict a landslide for Dean. An avalanche. In all but a few states it won't even be close.

[jeter]

14. Well lets hope for that.

But lets prepare ourselves for something more realistic.

[wtmusic]

17. Here's one way to look at it:

Gore won the popular vote in 2000. Who would win the Dem nomination if Gore were in the picture?

You're absolutely right--better safe than sorry. I agree with Eloriel though. The major concern should be the potential for electronic voting to steal the election from us. This is not tinfoilhat material either--it is totally within the realm of possibility. There's just too much at stake for these guys.

It's not a major public issue yet, and it's up to each and every one of us to do our part and keep it on the front burner.

[grytpype]

15. He has to make the election a referrendum on the Bush presidency.

Turn the spotlight on Bush and his mismanagement, and you will energize the base and get some crossover votes from former Bush voters who regret their actions.

Maybe do some tv spots about repentant Bush voters...

[rumguy]

19. Former bush voters

that could support Dean? I think there are lots of them out there. Last week I posted an article about gun owners who were upset with Bush over his environmental policies. Dean has an A rating from the NRA and is much better than Bush on the environment. There are some voters to peel away there.

Also, Bush's treatment of vets and cuts to their services. Possible peel of there as well.

Dean is a fiscal conservative. He balanced the budget in VT, left a surplus. Bush has increased the size of the fed. govt. and wracked up huge defecits.

In certain states Dean could be the pro-environment, reasonably gun friendly, fiscal conservative. And it would all be true.

[jeter]

20. Rumguy, that crowd you mentioned...

...the gun owners in the west could be what gives Dean Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. It's also why I wrote that I think Dean has a shot in the Dakotas, Montana, Kansas and Nebraska.

That's defintely a group we should look into more deeply.

[rumguy]

21. I agree, there's some significant movement in this area

There's petitions being passed around gun clubs. These people are hunters and fishermen, they don't want to see the land sold off to the highest bidder. An exploitable chink in Bush's armor.

Outdoorsmen (and women) for Dean!

[rumguy]

16. I think your analysis is right on

Florida will be hard to win, so could Iowa. The question is, how to win them? If Dean can keep raising the big bucks, coupled with the help of 527s, we can at least counter Bush's inevitable ad assualt in those states...the dem. party will have to pull together too, and accept Dean and work hard for him. That means Bill and Hill out on the trail helping him, that means taking the fight directly to Bush, even in his safe states, like Texas. It will take boldness and vision, and lots of money and man-power. It will also mean taking the fight to the media as well. We can't let the media play this election unfairly.

[Polemonium]

18. hmmm well I think

One of the keys to Dean's success so far has been his ability to energize the grassroots. If he continues to do that by giving people a way to meaningfully contribute to the campaign, and continues to make people believe that government can be by the people and for the people again... if he does that the grassroots community will continue to grow. Independents will get involved, and I think we will be looking at a campaign unlike any we have seen in a long time. People are cynical about politics in general so make it about the people not the politician. He has creatively succeeded at this so far, and with a few more ways to include supporter's ideas and generate transparent forums of ideas he'll be hard to stop. The issues he is hitting now ring true to most Americans - just stay the coarse.

[rumguy]

22. Kick

[burning bush]

23. A Few More Things

Dean needs to challenge Bush in the Southwest and surrounding states. As you said, Arizona and Nevada, Colorado. Colorado, especially, is well within Dem range.

I suggest Indiana. That state has the highest bankruptcy of any state, I believe, and has been hit HARD by job lossses.

Also, Dean should play to middle class white guys, and area where Republicans always defeat the Dems. By doing so, he'll automatically gain traction in the South. Sexist? Yeah, a little, but only for pragmatism's sake. Am I casting southern stereotypes?

Actually no - I'm not. I taking pre-existing stereotypes and working them for the sake of winning an election. So sue me.

How does Dean play to white guys? He can subtly play up his Hockey Dad image. White Guys love their candidates to be macho. Hockey goes beyond macho and tickles the crossing edge of extreme sports and institutionalized street fighting, set against the insanity of leather-faced, toothless white guys with razorblade shoes and big sticks, advertising Canadian beer! How white middle class can you get? Also, Dean can shunt images of the "tree hugging enviromentalists" when he drops his kids off at the rink in his SUV. And OH! Families love to see Candidates with their kids, right?

I'm joking here, but I'm also serious. Dems have some image issues with white males, but Dean has the potential to get past that, and more power to him. We lost white males to Reagan, we should fight to get them back.

Of course, Dean needs a running mate that supports all of the above, but comes from somewhere south. South. Deep South, SouthWest... whatever.

I wish we had a good Texan to call on, Texas can run South AND SouthWest. It will be a tough call for dean, or any candidate.

Ok, here's more - Dean should assemble an "Ideal Cabinet" before the General Election, and use talent from the Dem Candidate Pool. Gep as Secretary of Labor, Edwards as AG, Clark as Sec of State, Kerry as Sec of Defense, Kucinich as Sec Interior, etc...this helps solidify the base. Then, Dean should pull from the Mod Republican pool of Senators to fill out his cabinet, just for crossover appeal.

Remember - this is an "Ideal" cabinet. Nothing is set in stone, it's all image.

Dean should continue the mantra that it's tiome to move beyond voting on the basis of guns, God, gays, and and race. It's a good message.

Then, in his national commercials, Dean should show fuzzy images of folks at church picnics, guys in hunting gear, Hispanic heritage parades, and families.

I KNOW that i will get flamed for this, If anyone has read this far, but this is a civil cold war situation, and we have to use every tool available to sell this guy.

Dean's campaign has an ENOURMOUS juggling act ahead. But most of the time, Dean the man just has to stand their and not look stupid or weak or embarassed. People like self the courage of assuredness, even if they might disagree with your position.

Finally, Dean has to keep reminding us that this election is about us.

The only way for Dean to beat Bush, is if enough of US get our shit together and take our country back.

This is our responsibility, not Dean's. Dean is the doctor, looking at the angry citizens of this country, and saying physicians, heal thyselves.

[jeter]

26. I look at it this way

With highest priority given to states that are winnable and less priority given to those that we have an outside chance of winning or are likely to go for us.

I see it in four phases:

1) the certain victories: High Priority, New Hampshire and West Virginia. Lower Priorities, Maryland, Conneticut, Delaware (we carried these three and should again with a strong campaign).

2) the industrial and Agricultural states: High Priority, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Lower priorities, Michigan (because we will probably win it), Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana and Tennesse.

3) The Southwest and area: High Priority, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. Lower priorities, New Mexico, Oregon, the Dakotas, Montana, Kansas and Nebraska.

4) Running mate states: If Clark is the nominee - high priority to Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida.

Therefore, we need a good strategy for 12 high priority states and 15 lower priority states. That equals 27 states in total.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. Avoid the the surrender tactics of the DLC

I agree with your analysis. The temptation will be to move to the right in a mistaken attempt to win in unwinnable states. He has to keep on his populist, anti-war, anti-establishment message and not be seduced by the DLC types and become squishy like Al did in '00.