I don't know about Iowa, but a New Hampshire backlash is possible re:Dean

[DUreader]

There is an attitude ingrained which rebels against being told that

an outcome is inevitable.

The same attitude that causes folks to mislead reporters and pollsters

just for the fun of it.

Didn't something happen with Clinton in NH primaries in '92?

[sfecap]

1. Interestingly...

No Dean supporters that I know of are calling anything. They are working like Dean is 20 points behind.

[DUreader]

3. Hey, sfecap, I'm not one of the primary thread contibutors

You seem to be taking this as a dig at Dean supporters but

if you read it again you will see that is not the case

[sfecap]

5. No, not at all...

...I didn't take it that way, sorry if it came across like that.

The thing is I see many posts here assuming that Dean supporters think the nomination is a foregone conclusion. Like the candidate, nobody I know thinks that. We are working as if Dean is the underdog.

We've come a very long way, but it ain't over yet! :-)

[bearfartinthewoods]

8. THE PRESS ......they are the ones with the jones to name it a done deal

and that is soooo counter to what is to be expected since their bread and butter comes from the drama of the horse race.

i don't get it.

[Jacobin]

10. The media likes to set up a hero and then take him down in a big

splash.

Now THAT's drama.

When Rove's mudslinging machine kicks into gear, watch the media jump on Dean like a school yard bully.

[AnnitaR]

2. You are correct!

Yea, seems like to me he then went on to be President or something! LOL!

[DUreader]

4. Do you remember how that went down? Did Clinton win NH?

?

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. Clinton came in 2nd in NH

in 1992. Paul Tsongas won. Clinton was the long shot DC outsider who had entered the race LATE. He came in second in NH and ended up being one of the best Presidents we've ever had...for 2 terms! :)

Take NOTE...CLARK isn't even included in the below polls and look at him...second in NH. The article was written in August, 2003.

New Hampshire Primary: 1/27/2004, 22 delegates
Past performance:
2/28/1984: Hart 37.3%, Mondale 27.9%, Glenn 12.0%, Jackson 5.3%, McGovern 5.2%, Reagan 5.0%, Hollings 3.5%, Cranston 2.1%, Askew 1.0%
2/16/1988: Dukakis 36.4%, Gephardt 20.3%, Simon 17.4%, Jackson 8.0%, Gore 6.9%, Babbitt 4.7%, Hart 4.0%
2/18/1992: Tsongas 33.2%, Clinton 24.8%, Kerrey 11.1%, Harkin 10.2%, Brown 8.0%
Latest polls:
Boston Herald: Dean 28%, Kerry 25%, Lieberman 11%, Gephardt 9%, Edwards 1%
Franklin Pierce College: Dean 22%, Kerry 21%, Gephardt 6%, Lieberman 6%, Edwards 2%
2004 results based on history:
Dean (regional appeal, insurgency), Kerry (regional appeal), Gephardt (past performance)

New Hampshire is famous for kicking conventional wisdom in the teeth. With the primaries open to independents, and independents outnumbering each party, the outcome depends on how many independents get involved. Although regional candidates do well, insurgents become favorites here on the strength of independents, who bear no allegiance to party stalwarts. Without a competitive GOP primary, look for independents to swarm the Democratic side. Between regional appeal, strong organization, and his outsider status, this primary should be Dean's to lose and will be a key measure of his strength. Lieberman is sitting this one out, so the battle for third is between Gephardt and Edwards. Gephardt's strong showing in 1988 was presumably not an accident, and labor backing will give him some organization. Edwards will use his money for TV ads, but that won't cut it here. New Hampshire is retail politics, and there is no substitute for having a candidate on the ground meeting voters.

Tune in for next week's installment in the series: Delaware, Missouri, South Carolina

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/000487.html

[La_Serpiente]

6. People in New Hampshire

have historically chosen their final candidate after New Years.

[Myra]

7. Hm, good point. I must have some New Hampshire blood.

Because I sure rebel against being programed with inevitable outsomes (resistance is futile). And then there's the niggling little detail that I think Clark and Kucinich are the best candidates.

[CWebster]

9. The contortions to portray a Gore endorsement as a negative

continue.

Who needs Republicans with Democrats so willing to provide their tortured propaganda voluntarily.

[Kolesar]

12. "NH backlash is possible", "Didn't something happen with Clinton"

To tell the truth, I have no idea what DUreader is getting at. All I get is this generalized angst.

[DUreader]

14. I'm not sure where the angst is coming from, are you projecting?

I think my statement is pretty simple and straightforward.

And my question about Clinton is genuine.

[DUreader]

13. Did I say anything about Gore? That would be a big No.

What I did say something about is Media and Pollsters and my

familiarity with NH and an incident of hisory in the Primaries.

[teevee]

15. zzzzzzz..........

predictable, predictable predictable....