Could Gore force Sharpton's hand early?

[theboss]

I know I've posted three times today, which takes my all-time total to 6. But I love the inside baseball stuff of politics and I am trying to figure out how Gore's endorsement is going to be handled by the other campaigns.

Other posts of mine would reveal that I am no fan of Sharpton, but I do think he is very very smart. I am sure he realizes that the chances of him actually winning the nomination are extremely small, bordering on the impossible. His campaign has largely been about getting issues on the agenda that he feels have been ignored. And he has a lot of influence with what is probably the Dems' most important voting bloc.

So, what if he takes a reading on the winds and sees that Dean is going to win Iowa and NH and is to break away completely from the pack. If Dean pulls away early, then he will be calling the shots for the party and for the convention. Sharpton won't be in a position to bargin.

But . . . if Sharpton bails out now, throws his support to another candidate, and actively campaigns for him, well, then things get interesting. Sharpton is the only non-mainstream candidate who could probably get out a big percentage of the vote. Granted, he can't really help in NH and Iowa, but he could be a force in the South and Midwest.

If I am Clark, Edwards, or Kerry, I might have to swallow my pride and start making promises to Sharpton. And if I'm Sharpton, I might have to seriously consider accepting an agreement.

Of course, cutting a deal with Sharpton could destroy the nominee's chances in November. But not cutting a deal now could mean not surviving past March. And Sharpton is never going to be in a better bargaining position than he is right now.

(I reserve the possibily that I am talking completely out of my ass).

[rucky]

1. Sharpton needs to stay in for SC

he'll only have that kind of cred if he performs as high as he's polling there

[theboss]

2. I tend to agree

But it could be too late by then.

[Bombtrack]

3. I can see Sharpton getting behind Clark

he obviously relizes that a Dean ticket is Bush's easiest and best path to reelection, and he doesn't want that to happen.

he's made it increasingly clear that his campaign is more of a voter registration drive than anything

[deminflorida]

4. Nope, Sharpton stays...

Him pulling out of S.C. only helps Dean in that state now that Gore has endorsed him. There's no love lost between those two after the Confederate Flag remark. I even heard Sharpton say last night on CNN that Jessie Jackson won 9 caucuses, and 11 primary states. He's in for the fight thru the south. If Dean stands a chance there, he really does have to influence some of those southern white voters there that he made that remark about. (Hint: It's snowing in Hawaii).

[theboss]

5. Not if he campaigns for Edwards or Clark

I'm not suggesting Sharpton drop out and go into hiding. I'm suggesting he could take his ball to another court.

Edwards could do well in the South if Sharpton was rallying the black vote for him. And then Edwards would owe Sharpton a huge favor come convention time.

[loudnclear]

6. An endorsement does not a nomination make.

I'm for all the candidates to stay in the race if they want to. What happened to "democracy?" If Dems are going to beat Bush we need all the help we can get. Each candidate should gracefully acknowledge that Dean appears to be the frontrunner but that they are in it to give a voice to some issues that they are better qualified to voice and hopefully get more people to vote for them. This should not turn into an anti-Dean campaign because of Gore's endorsement...which I think was not the correct political move at this time. I sure hope that the Clinton's stay above the fray and just support whoever the convention nominates.

[Bombtrack]

7. Sharpton could really hurt Dean in the NY primary

and prevent him from getting a clear victory, while Clark gets one in California