Handicapping The Race....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I think Howard Dean is the prohibitive front runner . The primary challenger to Dean will emerge after New Hampshire if the script is followed which has Dean knocking out Gep in Iowa and Kerry in New Hampshire.

Of course if Gep defeats Dean in Iowa and Kerry defeats Dean in New Hampshire ,Dean would be eliminated and it would become a Gephardt-Kerry race but I think this scenario is highly unlikely...

Gep can't afford to lose Iowa cuz it's his backyard and neither Dean nor Kerry can afford to lose New Hampshire because it's their backyard....

So, the most likely scenario is Dean knocks out Gep and Kerry and either John Edwards or Wes Clark emerge as the primary post New Hampshire challenger to Dean...

And I respect the voices of those who say a single vote hasn't been cast... I'm just trying to start a discussion of the most likely scenarioes....