Dean leads in new Virginia poll

[pruner]

Virginia will hold a Democratic presidential primary Feb. 10. Some 308 of the poll’s participants said they are likely to cast ballots in the contest.

They expressed the following preference: Howard Dean, 21 percent; Joseph Lieberman, 13 percent; Clark, 11 percent; Richard Gephardt, 8 percent; John Kerry, 7 percent; Al Sharpton, 6 percent; John Edwards, 5 percent; Dennis Kucinich, 1 percent; Carol Moseley Braun, 0 percent. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

The survey of 308 likely voters in the Democratic primary has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=63387&ran=220195

[slinkerwink]

1. that's awesome!!!!!!

go Dean! :bounce:

[Sean Reynolds]

2. LIES! Dean could never win the south!

LIES I tell you! LIES!

[slinkerwink]

3. *gasp* bbbbbbuuuuut this poll says Dean has a LEAD!

;-) </sarcasm>

[alexm]

9. But is getting SMOKED by Bush head to head. Clark does the best.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tameszu]

27. Tsk, tsk, picking on newbies isn't very nice, Noelle

She isn't telling you that Dean is unelectable; she is pointing out what the POLL said. You brought up some numbers you liked in this poll, she has every right to bring up any other numbers in the same poll.

Instead of making fun of her, you could have at least argued that the poll doesn't show Clark (or anyone else) going gangbusters vs. Bush in VA. Fact is, no one's likely to put VA into play, except maybe Clark. Or that the poll has a large margin of error: +/-4%...then again, the primary part of the poll is even worse, with a nearly worthless MoE of +/- 6%.

[slinkerwink]

29. why do you think only Clark will put VA into play when Dean's

finally out of the margin of error and in the lead??

[newyawker99]

31. Hi alexm!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[magnolia]

35. I did the....

"bumper sticker on the expensive car" poll in Richmond and Dean wins hands down! (There is the occasional Clark sticker...and my personal favorite "It is Patriotic to Oppose Bush" that always brings joy to my heart.)

Those who are not familiar with Virginia may not know that we have a Democratic Governor who is loved and supported by all...Republicans and Democrats alike. Governor Warner's influence can tip the scale in the Presidential election.

I really like Clark. Maybe we just need to beg and plead to the Vice President selection team that they choose Clark and he accepts. If Dean is as smart as we think he is...he'll pick Clark. If Clark can put his ego aside in favor of what's best for the country...he will accept. I would prefer Dean/Edwards...because that covers all the bases...but after four years of Cheney...anyone will do.

[CMT]

38. how do you know he is getting smoked?

the article doesn't list what he gets vs. Bush only how Clark is doing which is losing to Bush by 15-points. It says Clark does best of all the candidates but doesn't say how far back Dean is--could be 16-22 points. Do you have the result of how Dean does vs. Bush?

[David Zephyr]

5. Sean, You Kill Me.

:hi:

[robsul82]

26. I just had...

...a big vision of Danny DeVito screaming "LIES!" in that DirectTV commercial, LOL. :D

Later.

RJS

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Mike Dukakis Won The Florida Primary And Lost It To Papa Bush By

Twenty Four Percentage Points......


Jimmy Carter in 1980* and Al Gore in 2000 won every southern primary and lost every southern state in the general election...


I think you threw a non-sequitar at us... Your inference doesn't logically follow from your premise......


Premise: Candidate A wins a southern primary...


Inference: Candidate A wins the same state in the election...


*Carter carried his home state of GA in 1980...

[lastliberalintexas]

45. Yes, but

what you're missing is that Dean supporters are constantly told that he won't even win Southern DEMS to his side. Do a search- you'll find plenty of posters who say that Dean will get crushed once the Southern states' primaries are held.


(not saying that Dean will sweep the South or that any other candidate will- the nomination fight is not over yet)

[SahaleArm]

4. When's the VA primary?

[pruner]

6. Feb 10

:)

[slinkerwink]

8. Feb 10

:-)

[alexm]

7. Bush SMOKES DEAN head to head. Clark does the best!!!!

That's what Dean supporters do not get. This election isn't about finishing 2nd. That means Bush get's re-elected.

Who care that he is polling TWO points higher than Clark statistically. He's tied statistically with Leiberman - That should tell you how well he's doing in the south.

[pruner]

10. us Dean supporters are so fucking stupid…

thank God there are people like you around to lead us out of the wilderness.

:eyes:

[slinkerwink]

11. no, Clark doesn't...

actually, Bush smokes him by a huge margin than he does with Dean. The general election is a year away---still time to move up in polls for the Dem nominee.

[unfrigginreal]

12. What are you talking about?

How do you know that Clark isn't just 1% closer to Bush than Dean? According to the article all of the candidates are within 7% of each other and the MOE on the poll is 6%.

[tameszu]

28. Nope, the MoE on the "vs. Bush" part of poll is 4%

The MoE on the PRIMARY part of the poll is 6%, because the Democrats-only part of the sample is so small.

[slinkerwink]

30. the primary poll is much MORE important because it's still a

year away from the general election when polls matching the repub against the dem opponent actually matters.

[CMT]

39. you keep saying this but Clark loses by 15-points

and we don't know what Dean's percentage is.

[Eloriel]

14. No, no, you seem not to understand

Dean can't win the South.

:evilgrin:

[slinkerwink]

15. oh, and those polls are poll-pushed by the evil ZOGBY!

;-)

[sleipnir]

16. Dean hasn't even campaigned there and he's still beating Clark

who's spent some time already in Virgina...

Just wait till the Dean Machine gets going! Then those head to head against Bush will change!!! Dean will win back the country, state by state!

[slinkerwink]

18. and that's the amazing part!

Southerners actually like what Dean has to say. Who would've thunk it? ;-)

[slinkerwink]

17. :kick:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. The polls

are starting to (almost) all go Dean's way...

The efforts of the many volunteers are paying off, as people are starting to tune in...

[slinkerwink]

21. yeah, we still CAN'T stop working/volunteering though...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

22. Indeed

Lots of work to do.

Talked to a staffer in Iowa tonight about whether people would be backing off coming to Iowa, thinking Dean is doing fine and it's too cold there now. She said to just ask people how bad they will feel next year if we lose and they can only say "Well, it was too cold in Iowa!" Yikes. Got my plane tickets.

[jsw_81]

20. Poor John Edwards

Seventh place in his native south? Behind Sharpton???

[SahaleArm]

23. And Lieberman at 13%?

Is that even explainable or are people not paying attention?

[slinkerwink]

24. This poll was taken before the Gore news hit the news cycles

so pretty much, all Lieberman has is name recognition and when news clips of his whinings makes its way through the news in Virginia, his numbers will drop.

[spooky3]

42. an N of 308 is too small even if appropriately selected.

I think Virginia is more like many midwestern states than southern. Virginians (particularly those in Northern Virginia and Charlottesville, where the university is) likely do not identify with John Edwards. Many Tidewater residents are military families who grew up elsewhere.

[slinkerwink]

25. :kick:

[Le Taz Hot]

32. I'm VERY surprised by this!

Delighted, but surprised.

[felonious thunk]

34. Cautions

First, a poll of 308 likely voters? 308? That isn't even close to a representative sample. The margin of error of 6% is highly questionable. I don't think this poll indicates anything.

That said, Bush will win VA. I live here, it doesn't matter which Democrat gets the nomination, he'll do well in Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, and Hampton Roads. He will lose the rest of the state 80-20. Bush will win VA by at least 10% points, I'd say.

[TomNickell]

36. But, it still takes FIFTY (50) % win the nomination....

The remarkable news in these polls is that -nobody- is anywhere near a majority.

This will change, but there -will- be change.

[spooky3]

41. I agree with you (I'm also a resident).

Virginia is more like a midwestern state than a southern state in many ways. It has 3 major metropolitan areas and the rest is rural. But the 3 major metropolitan areas do not all lean Democratic. The Dem. governor probably won voters over one person at a time. He spent a lot of one-on-one time with people. Many voters vote on the basis of whether they "like" you and this works with them. But no presidential candidate has the time to do this in states like Virginia. Whoever the nominee is would be better off devoting his/her time to other states where the vote will be closer, like Ohio.

[felonious thunk]

48. Yep

Although having spent time in Southwestern VA, I think it is VERY Southern there. But you're right, the Democrat would have to spend way too much time in Virginia to make a difference. Richmond definitely does not lean Democratic, and Northern Virginia is split between the liberal inner suburbs and the conservative outer suburbs; same with Hampton roads, with Hampton, Newport News and Norfolk leaning Democratic and Virginia Beach Republican.

[CMT]

37. but Dean doesn't have any support in the south

that is what I've heard, yet all of these polls recently seem to dispute this. He is a solid second behind Edwards in North Carolina, is only four-points out of first place (behind Lieberman) in Florida, is in the thick of things in South Carolina and now leading in Virginia.

[usregimechange]

40. Now is virginia in the south? nt

[Renew Deal]

43. They are above Mason Dixon

so no.

[lastliberalintexas]

46. Wrong

The Mason Dixon line runs between Maryland and Pennsylvania.

http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa041999.htm

[John_H]

44. Does Dean's staff approve touting 6 pt. margin Republican polls that show

other candidates doing better agaisnt bush?

"The poll showed Bush with leads ranging from 15 percent to 22 percent in head-to-head races against six top candidates vying for the Democratic presidential nomination. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark came the closest, with 33 percent compared to Bush’s 48 percent."

Jesus. If this is how his camapign operates, we're fucked if Dean wins.

[unfrigginreal]

47. Who does better and by how much?

Clark gets beat by 15% and he's the closest. So yeah, we know Clark does better but by how much? What will be interesting is when we find that Dean is within a point or two of the Clark result, and then you can explain why a Republican poll wouldn't want that information out.