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I second most of what you've said, but some things you state are very wrong, dangerously wrong.
It doesn't matter who our candidate turns out to be. He will beat the socks off of George W Bush.
Sadly, no. You're wrong. It matters a great deal who we nominate. Bush remains extremely popular with people--even among people who disagree with his policies, worry about his competance, and state right now that they want someone else to have a chance to lead the country.
The Repubs are talking a good game but their goose is cooked. Bush will be lucky to get 40% of the vote.
We wish. The difference between winner and loser will be less than 6%. Nader will be able to tip this one, too. At his lowest ebb, with the economy in shambles, the war a total flop, and the bodies just beginning to pile up last fall, Bush still had the support of over 45%. Now there's enough business financial activity to allow the media to justify claims that the recovery has begun.
And Rove has a full year left in which to craft a precise, divisive, laser-sharp message attacking the Democratic nominee. Whatever Bush's negative are, they are the negatives of a known quantity. In desperate or fearful times, people will seek solace in the familiar. All sorts of cheesy stunts are already in play to coalesce right around the end of October. Bush will make every effort to make it look like a pull out of Iraq--his biggest negative--is in the works, which will alleviate the greatest concerns of the voters.
Matched up against a well-sullied Democrat, Bush will appear to be the lesser of two evils to millions of voters. Even more of the disatisfied voters will stay home if they find enough to dislike in the Democrat. Running down the final vote tally works in Bush's favor. Expect that to be an unstated strategy on Rove's part.
Couple that up with Bush's millions, which no Democrat, even Dr Internet himself, will be able to match. Couple that up with the Republicans having a better funded and possibly better organized GOTV effort.
Couple that with the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the US some time between now and the election. (I'm no LIHOPer, but there are folks out there who want to kill us; more than there were on 9/11/01). If that happens and the DoJ or DoD can solve the case or retaliate effectively before Halloween, Bush can count on a significant sympathy surge.
The Democrats will probably take back the House and perhaps the Senate.
There are very very few swing states left in the House. Most of the at risk seats in the 2004 cycle are Democratic and we're facing several resignations from senators in Republican-leaning seats.
Oh, and there's the Black Boxes.
We should be cheering each side forward when they make a good statement or do something worthy.
On this we whole heartedly agree. But I won't only stick to positive statements. I'm a genuinely optimistic person. I think we can win. But I'm reminded of something that John Glenn said about NASA right after the Challenger disaster.
"They've gone from a can-do attitude to a can't lose attitude."
I refuse to underestimate my opponent. These guys play hard, play dirty, and know every trick in the book. I will not be Dukakised this year. Dean worries me that he is a Dukakis (also touted as a straight shooting can-do moderate, IYRC). I was a Dukakis organizer in '88. I know what it felt like going into that race and I can't forget how it felt coming out.
America will survive another four years of George Bush. Some of the high school kids I'm educating right now may not. This is personal for me. I will vote for ABB. But I demand the right to argue vigorously in favor of the one I think is the right ABB. If we do not look critically at all of our ABBs, we will certainly pollyanna ourselves into a the 2005 North Korean war and the 2007 Syrian war.
And Rove will wink at Jeb.
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